Gorton & Denton by-election thread

[fromorbit]

This dramatic byelection to be held on Thursday 26 February 2026 is looking likely to have a confrontation over sex and gender with the Conservative's just announced candidate Charlotte Cadden being a trustee for Sex Matters. Another factor is with a large Muslim population in the area the group Muslim Vote has endorsed the Green candidate despite one of their aims to be remove teaching about LGBT issues from schools when religious parents object. Obviously in conflict with Green policy.

Candidates

• Angeliki Stogia will be the Labour candidate in this year's election. Ms Stogia moved to the UK from Greece in the 1990s and has served as a councillor in Whalley Range since 2004.
• Reform UK have selected GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as their candidate. He studied at the University of Salford and went on to have a career as a commentator and academic.
• The Liberal Democrats have selected local campaigner Jackie Pearcey as their candidate. She lives in the constituency and previously won 2,600 votes at the 2017 elections.
• The Green Party have put forward Hannah Spencer to stand for them at the by-election. She is a plumber by trade she is from Bolton and has lived in Greater Manchester all her life, and is based in Hale where she is a councilor. She doesn't believe biology is important in deciding gender.
• The Conservative Party have chosen former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden as their candidate. She served for 30 years in GMP and London's Met.
• The Re-join EU Party have announced that Joseph O'Meachair will be their candidate. He is a member of the party's executive committee and lives in the North West.

Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party)
The Social Democratic Party announced on Friday 30 January that the current SDP North West Chair Sebastian Moore will be running as their candidate in the by-election.

Nicholas Brendan Buckley Advance UK

He is a British charity worker and political figure who previously represented Reform UK.

Dan Clarke is the Libertarian Party candidate

Sir Oink A-Lot
Sir Oink A-Lot is The Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/parl.gorton-and-denton.by.2026-02-26/gorton-and-denton/

The just announced Conservative candidate has serious form:
Former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden is a lesbian served for 30 years as a Police Officer, both for Greater Manchester Police and the Metropolitan Police - Charlotte is a trustee of the charity Sex Matters, a member of the LGB Alliance Business Forum. She coordinates the Women’s Rights Network in Greater Manchester, In 2023, she set up the national Police SEEN.

Galloway's Worker's Party have now decided not to stand. They may have attracted a bunch of Muslim votes which will now go elsewhere.

Any hustings are going to be rather interesting.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Gorton%20and%20Denton

These days Polymarket is turning into a useful prediction tool:

https://polymarket.com/event/gorton-and-denton-by-election-winner

It's going to be interesting, because you have to assume some people will vote tactically. In the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Senedd, there was a strong assumption that Reform would walk it, but then all the Labour voters switched to Plaid Cymru, and their candidate won instead.

The question then is whether the left vote will go to Labour or to the Greens, and whether the right vote will go to Reform (and Goodwin is very high profile now, very competitive and very determined) or to the Tories.

Particularly interesting because Labour have a 13,000 majority, which in normal circumstances would be hard to overturn, but these are not normal circumstances.

Yes was on the radio this morning with prof Curtice

It's looking good for Sir Oink, in that case.

OMG they deadnamed it

Nah, some fule just spelt it wrongly.
🤣

Polanski yesterday was arguing for drug legalisation whilst claiming he'd never taken any himself nor even drunk alcohol. This seems like trying to appeal to the pretty disparate elements of green protest vote, the white middle class coke snorters and the devout religious Gaza activists

A look at the demographic trends in the seat from a former academic friend of Matthew Goodwin.

The Gorton and Denton by-election: a tale of two Manchesters?
Unpopular incumbent + fragmented opposition + unusual seat = unpredictable contest
https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-gorton-and-denton-by-election

spiked
Gorton and Denton: one last heave for the Islamo-left alliance?
Islamic sectarianism is already rearing its head in this tightest of by-elections
https://archive.is/c5QUa

As campaigning gets underway and photos of candidates on the streets you can see the Green campaigners flooding the seat are virtually all white very like the Reform ones. Meanwhile the Labour launch was far more mixed.

Polanski is a dangerous idiot. With his recent announcement that the Green Party weren't looking for 'middle class tree huggers' to join them, what is the point of the Green Party? Trans rights and open borders? Fuck the fuck off. Also can't see how the Muslim vote is swinging behind them. They're diametrically opposed. My feeling is that Reform will win this seat.

Sir Oink A-Lot's policies
Statement to voters
The Loony Party are no pigs in a poke, we are hamming it up and bringing home the bacon with our local candidate Sir Oink-a-Lot. His campaign slogan is ‘Think Big, Vote Pig’, those trotters have left the sty and hit the hustings in a crackling good start. All other candidates in this by-election talk hogwash and make a pig’s ear of politics compared to our Sir Oink who is without doubt the whole hog.

An acquaintance of mine has been door knocking for the Greens. She lives in the constituency but the "up and coming" part (it's been up and coming for about 15 years now) and I think she's been a bit shocked by the reaction in some areas. Greens are winning votes amongst the Muslim community because of Gaza, not an eco or LGBTQ stance.

Incidentally Hannah is a plumber but she works for Eon fitting boilers and now heat pumps. She's not there relocating soil pipes or fixing burst radiators.

It would be amazing if he won.

Yeah they're suspending their social conservatism for he sake of this.

Whether they win depends on whether reform split the non Muslim vote. I doubt the community are a majority demographic.

@HobnobsChoice what reactions has your friend experienced and why are they shocking?

I don't normally bother talking to canvassers but I don't think I could resist asking a Green Party canvasser a lot of questions.

Then again, I might decide it's a complete waste of time... not sure.

I suppose the silver lining to the Greens looking to Muslim groups to deliver Muslim votes is that eventually they'll really have to sacrifice the insanity of gender ideology because it just won't fly with these voters.

I assume that the Muslim groups believe eventually they can achieve this and see the Greens as useful idiots to help them achieve their goals. They're probably right.

The Muslim vote is voting on Gaza. With the decision of Galloway not to stand a candidate they will swing behind the Greens. The GP is quite cynically going for this vote

Out of interest, what do the Muslim vote want the UK government to do about Gaza? It's unclear that there is anything they can do. What are they voting for?

If it's anything like the Sultana (LGBTQ socialist rather than social conservative, which is Corbyn) faction of Your Party, it's to de-recognise Israel and cut off trade links

Placemarking to read fully- I am in the next door constituency to Gorton/Denton. Jonathan Reynolds was chapping doors at the weekend...

There's an utterly bonkers element to this.

Gorton is such a mixed area. It's rough but cheap. So you have a mix of poorer working class white, young educated people who can't afford anywhere else and a Muslim community.

If you go with a legalise drugs message you run the risk of alienating the majority of at least two of these groups in an area with higher levels of crime.

But my suspicion is this particular declaration from Hypnotits hasn't really had much traction in terms of the by-election.

New Statesman. Greens could win but would be tricky

https://nitter.net/BNHWalker/status/2018261606887559362#m

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/02/can-the-greens-win-gorton-and-denton

I think Charlotte Cadden is an excellent candidate however I also dont think Conservative have a chance. This place has been in a labour stronghold forever with only neighbouring hazel grove and cheadle voting lib dems. Labour may still get it yet, because some people just vote blindly red still

On a completely irrelevant point, I have never seen the expression 'chapping doors' until this by-election. Is it a Manchester thing?

In scottish but live in manchester maybe its a scottish thing 😅

Burnage mentioned in the article. That's where Liam and Noel Gallagher lived