I think this tactic backfiring actually contributed to Trump's second election.
Obama flat fucking lied to women about protecting abortion rights when he campaigned on it for his second term, and then, instead of acting when he had the most favourable political circumstances since Roe, he kicked it into the long grass never to be seen again so that the next Dem candidate could repeat the trick.
Except that voters can see when they are being lied to and they don't like it. And Dobbs stopped that tactic stone-dead because Trump stacked the court during his first term, which is a risk that Obama could and should have foreseen.
By contrast, we all remember laughing at Trump trying to build The Wall in his first term, not seeing that what he was doing was showing the electorate that he tries to keep his promises, no matter how cruel or stupid they are.
When voters went to the polls in 2024, they voted for the promise-keeper.
By the time we get to 2024, it's too late to use abortion as a whip to command women's votes, because Dobbs has superseded Roe and the electorate is viewing abortion as a matter to be settled at state level. Women no longer have to hold their noses and vote Dem because that horse has already bolted and the stable door is swinging on its hinges.
Men in women's sports and spaces is now on voters' radar. Trump says he'll end this. Harris won't even acknowledge that voters are concerned about it, looking out-of-touch and unwilling to face truths. Biden has dropped out leaving Harris running as what many will perceive as not even the Dems' true choice of candidate because she wasn't selected by a primary. Harris is also the candidate of the party that lies to you that women can have penises and breaks promises to women. She's not seen as honest. Trump is. People will vote for an honest sinner over a hypocrite because at least they know what they are getting.
That "Harris is for they/them. President Trump is for you." campaign was pure genius in that context. It tapped into that perception of Harris as untrustworthy and out-of-touch and invited voters who know that there are only two sexes to, in the privacy of the polling booth, express the truth that they dare not speak aloud as a vote for the candidate who speaks that truth openly.
And true to his word, the Orange One signed executive orders protecting women's spaces and sports in his first few days of office.
The Dems are really going to have to work at being seen as authentic to come back from this. I think Sanders was the last authentic primary candidate they've had. And I hope that they do come back from this, otherwise 2029 will be JD Vance's first term.