So, if male people with transgender identities have been intimidating women on-line and at women's events, and there are MoJ statistics that show that male people with transgender identities are being convicted for sex offences at rates that do not come anywhere near being the same or at rates lower than female people in the UK, why do we need to prove that male people, ALL male people, should be kept out of female single sex spaces.
Particularly since we also know that even with testosterone suppressed for any length of time, that even the weakest male strength and power remains higher than the highest decile of female strength. We have the performance studies that we can link up and shows this.
Gellman did a calculation of the % of the estimated transgender population of UK being in prison for sex offences, that Howseitgoin posted last month.
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"According to Google, the UK’s adult population is 54 million, give or take some change. The best estimates of the trans population is just under 1%, with a more or less 50/50 split between genetic males and genetic females (I use these terms here to disambiguate the necessity to divide the adult population in half for the purpose of estimating trans vs cis population).
That makes around 270,000 trans women in the UK. I’m not going to consider trans kids here because…. that’s just creepy to even think about.
So we have 129 trans women out of 270,000 in prison. That’s 0.047% of the entire trans woman population in prison… at all.
76 are there for sex offences, so that’s 0.028% of the entire trans woman population in prison for sex offences.
Now let’s check that against the cis figures:
3812 cis women equals 0.014% of all cis women. 125 is 0.0005% of all cis women in prison for sex offences.
78781 cis men equals 0.2% of all cis men. 13234 is 0.049% of all cis men in prison for sex offences."
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This was based on very generous estimate of how many male people with transgender identities were in the UK at the time, of course.
This above was supposed to convince us that because of the very tiny numbers of male people with transgender identities, that it is disproportionate to continue to treat them like other male people in the UK.
However, these figures do not show that male people with a transgender identity have the same risk profile or lower than female people in the UK.
Let's compare 0.028% male people with transgender identities vs 0.0005% of female people in the UK.
The figures for sex offences for male people with transgender identities is proportionately higher in the last release of MoJ transgender prison statistics. The % of the male people with transgender identities with sex offences that are in the UK prisons is very disproportionate to male prison population and for the female prison population. I will let you look up the latest figures from the MoJ.
It would be safeguarding failure to change policies based on figures like this.
It is not a valid statement to say that male people with transgender identities do not pose a risk to female people in the UK. It is valid to say that they pose greater risk to female people than other female people in the UK. It is probably valid to say that they pose as much a risk to female people as the rest of general male population of the UK.
Can you tell us @UnintentionalArcher what more information do women need to produce to show that a group of male people with transgender identities have not lost their risk of causing female people harm with the aim that we can exclude them from all female single sex spaces?
Keeping in mind that narrowing the discussion to sex and violence offences does not remove these other harms mentioned upthread from consideration for single sex spaces.
We can get more. Plus if you need the punch power and grip strength figures of male people with suppressed testosterone that show just how more powerful a male person is compared to most female people, just ask. We have that.