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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

Stats on violent assault - trans people

103 replies

ItsCoolForCats · 08/09/2025 16:52

I frequently see stats bandied about and claims made on social media that trans people are much more likely to be the victim of violent assault than 'cis' people. For example, here is Helen Webberley claiming that "...trans people are 4 x more likely to be victim of violent assault than cisgender people, just because of their identity". https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/1natr6o/graham_linehan_arrest_setting_piers_morgan/

Does anyone know where they are getting these stats from, as I rarely see a source referenced.

OP posts:
Thingybob · 08/09/2025 18:22

ItsCoolForCats · 08/09/2025 16:52

I frequently see stats bandied about and claims made on social media that trans people are much more likely to be the victim of violent assault than 'cis' people. For example, here is Helen Webberley claiming that "...trans people are 4 x more likely to be victim of violent assault than cisgender people, just because of their identity". https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/1natr6o/graham_linehan_arrest_setting_piers_morgan/

Does anyone know where they are getting these stats from, as I rarely see a source referenced.

I'm not a fan of Piers but that episode of Piers Morgan Uncensored in your link is a good watch.

Laurie Penny makes a complete tit of herself at the beginning and Piers calls out Webberley as a "flamin hypocrite" from about 31 minutes.

Brefugee · 09/09/2025 09:36

ArabellaSaurus · 08/09/2025 17:04

I don't think violent crime stats are disaggregated by gender identity.

Yes. It doesn't show ANY violence against (or by) trans people.

So we can't target resources for them.

Own fycking goal.

Cailleach1 · 09/09/2025 09:38

hamstersarse · 08/09/2025 17:07

Helen Webberley has staked her whole career and reputation on the trans ‘cause’

She just has to keep repeating the mantra. It’s all she’s got

That, and the dosh I presume she benefits from in the private prescription market. I don’t know if there is also a referral angle.

Lockfairy · 09/09/2025 09:52

Cailleach1 · 09/09/2025 09:38

That, and the dosh I presume she benefits from in the private prescription market. I don’t know if there is also a referral angle.

I’m sure global pharmaceutical companies are very ‘grateful’ to her, as well.

MarieDeGournay · 09/09/2025 10:12

These 'statistics', and phrases like 'epidemic of anti-trans violence' , 'literal genocide' and 'most marginalised group in society' serve to keep the most impressionable, and most volatile, of the trans community in a constant state of fear, perceived persecution, and resistance

This produces a counter-reality where violence is justified, brave and heroic, because it is in defence of not just trans rights, but the physical safety and very existence of trans people.

It is very powerful, and social media creates channels it can run along unrestricted. SM also creates an atmosphere in which the Williams Institute stats are 100% true and no amount of fact-checking or debunking will shake the TRAs reliance on them as absolutely factual; so they will keep getting quoted by TRAs, regardless.

But it is important for us to see the Williams Institute study in a critical light, so thank you Helleofabore for your analysis of its findings.

Cailleach1 · 09/09/2025 10:13

Gosh, that Laurie Penny one is very disingenuous. You can see the devices she uses.

Morgan: How do you police free speech then?
Penny: Do you mean how do I personally police free speech?

Paraphrased. Well you know that PM doesn’t mean every random person going around. Otherwise, everyone is guilty of offensive speech, as someone somewhere will take exception.

She, LP, tries to trip up the conversation of the person talking to her. Up this avenue, down that cul de sac, right until the conversation is killed and she does a little sanctimonious curl of her lip. It is a ploy she uses.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 09/09/2025 10:21

ItsCoolForCats · 08/09/2025 17:16

Apart from the dishonesty of making up stats, it is really alarmist. There are a lot of young people with poor mental health caught up in this, and it's no wonder they talk about being too afraid to leave the house when the likes of Helen Webberley are telling them they will be attacked and discriminated against at every turn.

The trans Reddit UK is quite eye opening, because it's full of people who think the whole country is against them, and there is a big conspiracy underway to erase them (whatever that means). But mostly, it's depressing that they are so absorbed in their victim narrative that they have no empathy or insight into why women need single sex spaces.

I wonder whether it has occurred to any of them that by not wanting there to be any word for female people which excludes people "assigned male at birth", they are actively seeking to erase us, not the other way round.

I also agree it is really alarmist. I remember reading something posted by a trans person who decided to dig into all these data for themselves and came to the conclusion that they were no more at risk than anyone else and actually felt angry about having been fed such a load of bullshit by people purporting to be acting in their interests.

Justme56 · 09/09/2025 10:51

I’m not brilliant with stats but looking at the small numbers in the Williams Institute study doesn’t it show that transgender men are at greater risk than transgender women. 107/1000 compared to 82/1000.

SidewaysOtter · 09/09/2025 11:03

These 'statistics', and phrases like 'epidemic of anti-trans violence' , 'literal genocide' and 'most marginalised group in society' serve to keep the most impressionable, and most volatile, of the trans community in a constant state of fear, perceived persecution, and resistance.

It also perpetuates the idea amongst 'allies' that they are on the Right Side of History and that the nasty TERFs must be silenced.

And, of course, it allows certain grifts to keep going.

Keenovay · 09/09/2025 14:49

Thingybob · 08/09/2025 18:22

I'm not a fan of Piers but that episode of Piers Morgan Uncensored in your link is a good watch.

Laurie Penny makes a complete tit of herself at the beginning and Piers calls out Webberley as a "flamin hypocrite" from about 31 minutes.

It is an entertaining watch. No fan of Piers either, but does he know how to push poor Laurie's buttons.

Meanwhile, TransgenderUK Reddit thanks Helen politely for her contribution then gently suggests she gets media training and researches the panellists next time...

www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/1natr6o/graham_linehan_arrest_setting_piers_morgan/

Helleofabore · 09/09/2025 14:55

Keenovay · 09/09/2025 14:49

It is an entertaining watch. No fan of Piers either, but does he know how to push poor Laurie's buttons.

Meanwhile, TransgenderUK Reddit thanks Helen politely for her contribution then gently suggests she gets media training and researches the panellists next time...

www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/1natr6o/graham_linehan_arrest_setting_piers_morgan/

That is remarkable that they are giving Webberly advice.

And I am no fan of Piers either but he did point out the hypocrisy of both LP's and Webberly's positions. And watching LP, I am not sure what she thought she was going to achieve on the show apart from being able to claim to be victimised, talked over and disrespected and how just no one will listen to her wise and educated words.

PatrickBaitman · 09/09/2025 15:46

There’s a section about such studies it in Helen Joyces book. As far as I remember, there was a study regarding trans women that had been killed. That trans activists used a lot. And just about everyone who was killed was working as prostitutes and got killed by clients.

There can’t really be any good unbiased studies about violence or threats against trans people. Because by now, they collectively know well that the whole ideology really needs it to be proven that they suffer more violence/threats.

Because that’s their last line of defense when they fail with real arguments: «Your arguments are dangerous, it kills trans people».

And when it comes to suicide/suicidal thought, trans people often have many other issues that also would explain increased suicidal tendencies. Somehow I don’t think it’s the most confident and socially well functioning people who end up doubting their gender. And narcissism and autism is very common, according to solid research. If I wanted to change sex I sure also would say I had suicidal thoughts so I could get approved for it quicker. So getting reliable stats will be impossible.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 09/09/2025 15:47

Because she’s never heard of Blair White 😂

IwantToRetire · 09/09/2025 18:28

I dont think the US stats are that helpful.

In the UK (and yes I now the protected characteristic is meant to be those with a GRC) it is bizarre there are no stats on that even if they include identity along with gender re-assignment.

Also supposed hate crime is not the same as recording a violent attack and presumably a court case or at least a caution.

Why I said up thread it seems very odd as i am sure in at least 1 if not 2 high profile court cases the inference was, and said in court, that the violence was because of the attackers view of trans people, those perceived to be trans.

So in terms of the OP, as yet no one seems to have any stats.

Which you would think TRA groups would be logging.

(But yes, agree that global stats on violence against TW have shown that the cause is as likely to be related to being prostitutes.)

IwantToRetire · 09/09/2025 18:32

Quote:

We are therefore unable to release the number of violent crimes specifically committed against trans men and trans women. Section 39 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 (SRSA) renders it a criminal offence to disclose information held by the Statistics Board for statistical purposes that would identify an individual, including those who are deceased. As we are prohibited by law from publishing statistics in which individuals can be identified, Section 44(1) of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) applies.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/violentcrimeratefortransgenderpeoplecomparedwiththegeneralpopulation2013to2023

Freedom of Information Act 2000

An Act to make provision for the disclosure of information held by public authorities or by persons providing services for them and to amend the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Public Records Act 1958; and for connected purposes.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/36/contents

IwantToRetire · 09/09/2025 18:36

I wonder if the lack of any data of any sort is to do whether in terms of convictions the fact of someone being trans is not referenced in any sentencing.

But still strange that no one is compiling this. Confused eg

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-67729418

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-trans-woman-bottled-stamped-27341897

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/three-teenagers-plead-guilty-brutal-120832424.html

https://metro.co.uk/2025/07/02/trans-woman-covered-blood-bruises-transphobic-attack-street-23557929/

Ereshkigalangcleg · 09/09/2025 19:23

IwantToRetire · 09/09/2025 18:28

I dont think the US stats are that helpful.

In the UK (and yes I now the protected characteristic is meant to be those with a GRC) it is bizarre there are no stats on that even if they include identity along with gender re-assignment.

Also supposed hate crime is not the same as recording a violent attack and presumably a court case or at least a caution.

Why I said up thread it seems very odd as i am sure in at least 1 if not 2 high profile court cases the inference was, and said in court, that the violence was because of the attackers view of trans people, those perceived to be trans.

So in terms of the OP, as yet no one seems to have any stats.

Which you would think TRA groups would be logging.

(But yes, agree that global stats on violence against TW have shown that the cause is as likely to be related to being prostitutes.)

No, the protected characteristic for criminal purposes is “transgender identity”.

https://www.cps.gov.uk/crime-info/hate-crime

Ereshkigalangcleg · 09/09/2025 19:24

It has zero to do with GRCs.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 09/09/2025 19:37

I agree it’s very odd, by which I mean predictable that there are no actual statistics for numbers of violent crime as opposed to so called “hate crimes”, which can include harassment, malicious communication etc. Because I suspect the proportion would be quite small. And it’s much more convenient to point to a large number of reports about mean tweets, misgendering etc.

whenimnotcleaningwindows · 09/09/2025 19:40

Well, every time I see trans in the news they seem to have deliberately omitted to tell their victim what gender they were born at before abusing them.
What comes first, chicken or egg?

Wherehasthecatgone · 09/09/2025 19:42

Helleofabore · 08/09/2025 17:14

Maybe this will help

This quote keeps appearing here:

”Transgender people are over four times more likely than cisgender people to experience violent victimization, including rape, sexual assault, and aggravated or simple assault”

It was from this press release.

williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/ncvs-trans-press-release/

I have a few issues with this press release. I think it has been used widely and extensively since it was released. I believe this document discusses those crime statistics

escholarship.org/content/qt7c3704zg/qt7c3704zg.pdf?t=qqfomk&v=lg

It refers to 369 trans people vs 435 061 people who were not trans identified in a study.

How strange that the sample size was not mentioned at all in the press release!!
I might have forgotten most of what I learned from my Statistics module at uni but 0.0008 is not a population that you could draw many confident conclusions from. And it would be ridiculous to make the comparison.

Think about this from the point of view that women around the world admit they don’t bother to report their sexual assaults and rapes. Because they have no confidence that they will get justice AND not be vilified in the process.

What % of females actively reporting their attacks vs current trend of not bothering to report would decimate that 369 figure?

And that number cannot be accurately depicted in this point either;

”About half of all violent victimizations were not reported to police. Transgender people were as likely as cisgender people to report violence to police.”

Sure this 'maybe'. However, I believe the huge number of women telling us they don’t report.

This article is misrepresenting the reality.

I also bring to your attention this as it is relevant to your claim:

”Transgender people are over four times more likely than cisgender people to experience violent victimization, including rape, sexual assault, and aggravated or simple assault”

Including! Notice it says ‘including’!

Not ”Trans people are 4 times more likely to experience violent attacks including rape and sexual assault.”

What was NOT included was a handy breakdown of what constituted the crimes against trans people were. What was the bar for a hate crime being committed for instance? Misogyny? Does that fit the definition that holds for transphobic hate crimes?

And based on 369 people, I am not going to delve into that national dataset to look for it. I don’t have the will. Maybe if you wish to prove your point, you could link to that data with the breakdown of the actual crimes reported for those 369 people.

One in four transgender women who were victimized thought the incident was a hate crime compared to less than one in ten cisgender women.”

How many females being taught how to accurately assess the motivation against them as to whether it constituted a hate crime, or indeed using the very same frames of reference as trans people do but based on sexism, and then reanswering that same survey would again make that point meaningless? Is misogyny a ‘hate crime’ for instance?

Do people understand the significance of what centuries of oppression of females has done on being able to accurately assess the motivation of crimes against our sex?

I am beginning to. The trans lobby groups are informing my learnings. Because of what they classify as ‘transphobic hate crimes’ when I look at what I have experienced as a female… wow! I sure have overlooked a huge amount of what I just waved away as crap from males.

And that the group who are trans could include many of those reporting abuse that includes misgendering and perceived micro-aggressions. Gosh, imagine if women reported all the hateful things said and done to them on a daily basis.

Crimes that cause harm and pain to anyone should be fully investigated and justice served.

But if a claim such as ”Trans people are 4 times more likely to experience violent attacks including rape and sexual assault.” is going to be made by any institution or poster, it needs to be based on some very robust data.

Edited

Your numbers of trans is slightly off. There were 420 overall but 51 didn’t declare sex so when broken down by sex there were 181 trans identified women and 188 trans identified men.

We can use the stats presented to work out number of violent incidents in this study. For ‘experienced violence’, the study extrapolates from just 19 incidents for trans identified women, and just 16 incidents for trans identified men. Hence the confidence intervals being so wide.

If we apply this to the statement One in four transgender women who were victimized thought the incident was a hate crime
we are talking about just FOUR trans identified men thinking the incident was a hate crime.

Helleofabore · 09/09/2025 19:43

Sorry?

The OP asked where the sound bite around ‘four times’ comes from.

Why is it that they haven’t taken the sound bite from that press release?

The OP was asking about Webberly’s point. I don’t think it is irrelevant to point out where that ‘four times’ sound bite has been used, even in the UK. I don’t think any of us disagree that it is irrelevant. Of course it is.

Wherehasthecatgone · 09/09/2025 19:53

Wherehasthecatgone · 09/09/2025 19:42

Your numbers of trans is slightly off. There were 420 overall but 51 didn’t declare sex so when broken down by sex there were 181 trans identified women and 188 trans identified men.

We can use the stats presented to work out number of violent incidents in this study. For ‘experienced violence’, the study extrapolates from just 19 incidents for trans identified women, and just 16 incidents for trans identified men. Hence the confidence intervals being so wide.

If we apply this to the statement One in four transgender women who were victimized thought the incident was a hate crime
we are talking about just FOUR trans identified men thinking the incident was a hate crime.

Edited

It also states that 4% of transgender people believed their property violation was a hated crime - this trans lates to FOUR episodes of property violation.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 09/09/2025 19:55

I think you make a valid point in saying how small the sample is. Remember the PACE study about suicide ideation relied upon by Stonewall and Mermaids depended on 15 out of only 27 “trans” people remembering that they had “attempted suicide” which could include most self harm. And it was dishonestly presented as a survey of 2000 people.

Helleofabore · 09/09/2025 19:58

Wherehasthecatgone · 09/09/2025 19:42

Your numbers of trans is slightly off. There were 420 overall but 51 didn’t declare sex so when broken down by sex there were 181 trans identified women and 188 trans identified men.

We can use the stats presented to work out number of violent incidents in this study. For ‘experienced violence’, the study extrapolates from just 19 incidents for trans identified women, and just 16 incidents for trans identified men. Hence the confidence intervals being so wide.

If we apply this to the statement One in four transgender women who were victimized thought the incident was a hate crime
we are talking about just FOUR trans identified men thinking the incident was a hate crime.

Edited

Ok. The number change doesn’t really Impact the data trends. As you point out the number of crimes is not significant.

Yet, this paper has been quoted so often! It is so dishonest.