Crime and poverty always go hand in hand.
Immigrants are always going to be a feature of that, because many seek to come to the UK for better economic opportunities and prospects.
This by default implies that their background prior to that is one where they are economically less well off.
So they start at the bottom of British society with the ambition and intention of moving up. This means they are in more difficult areas and are exposed to more social problems. There are often more limited legitimate opportunities than they envisaged and thus may be tempted by criminal opportunies or even necessity (just like those who have long established backgrounds in that same community).
Comparisons along race / immigration status lines often miss this problem. Comparing white affluence stable citizens with British ancestry to immigrants from none Western countries isn't a fair comparison. Comparing with white citizens of the same economic status is much more appropriate - and when you do that, you actually get a very different picture. It's a picture of political neglect of these communities and less access to opportunities compared to recent migrants. It's an economic problem primarily which are amplified by cultural differences, not caused by cultural differences.
This creates tension within an established community who feel like they are marginalised or shut out. If you have large numbers of people who can't speak English then even as the most welcoming person ever this can leave to difficulties in communication and yes perhaps a sense of social isolation and sense of second classness.
There has been a significant reduction in social mobility - again 2008 was a significant turning point in this. The removal of free university education was a consequence of government finances being squeezed post crash. This reduction of social mobility has caused resentment and frustration. Little to no investment in areas of low employment opportunities whilst then putting more competition for what jobs and housing are available is a total recipe for disaster for anyone with half a brain cell. Seeing money poor into schemes and support for migrants - however legitimate or fair their reasons are for coming to the UK - is going to lead to resentment. It's inevitable because human nature and sense of justice/fairness. You actually have to ask the question, why did no one consider this seriously rather than blaming any group involved at ground level. There's a total political void in thinking at this level. Anyone surprised it's manifesting as racism at times, needs to take a long hard look at what's happening at ground level..
It's the lefts political blind spot. Everyone has political blind spots, but the left were warned and told about it for decades but didn't take it seriously because it wasn't said by people with great educations and who are able to articulate the point well.
We've fallen into the fallacy of believing that if people are well spoken and educated they must be right but people who are lacking in this are stupid and ignorant and should be ignored.
That's not how democracies work and this arrogance in refusing to listen on a range of quite disparate and totally unrelated subjects has led to an era of grievance.
Dominic Cummings understood it. His strategy for the Official Vote Leave campaign was to not promise anything but instead hone in on these grievances and acknowledge them (this is why the leave promises were wishy washy, unconnected, sometimes contradictory and generally bollocks.) He knew that the electorate would take to the bits that connected with them and their lived experience and ignore everything else as just background noise. Arguably Farages unofficial leave campaign was actually a hindrance to this strategy because it had an image problem that drove off quite a lot of softer disillusioned who didn't like the racism.
Since then, the Conservatives were unable to move forward with Brexit promises which promised both nothing and the earth at the same time. In letting the electorate form individual concepts of what Brexit should look like in their own heads Cummings created millions of visions of Brexit but no unifying vision of Brexit which had widespread public consensus. It doomed the Conservatives to oblivion in the long run.
I think Labour recognised this danger to an extent but in taking over from the Tories and the shit show they left behind they are on a hiding to nothing especially post COVID.
Meanwhile Farage has realised how well Cummings strategy of focusing on disillusionment worked in gathering votes. And after years of things getting worse and being offered no other solution even moderates are turning to him because they've been failed and not acknowledged in their legitimate concerns. Instead they've been told to suck it up or worse told they are wrong and bigoted rather than politicians looking at the underlying issues.
As I say, Reform do not have the answers. When you see any reform candidate grilled on anything much at all they generally don't have many answers and often reveal pretty poor knowledge of the subject (see Farage on gender identity issues and where the law currently is. He couldn't identify the SC ruling and he couldn't identify the issue over medical transition not being enforceable as a prerequisite to certain rights under gender reassignment.)
Put them in power and it's going to be a car crash because they will clash with the law. Their only option will be a massive dismantling of political accountability to the public (basically public recourse through the courts) but it looks likely they will have the majority to be able to do this.
It will be a trainwreck and may end up with social unrest because it will increase rather than decrease disillusionment and levels of poverty and crime will increase.
I don't see any way around this inevitably.
As it stands if you are above a certain financial point now, you'll be ok. Be below a certain watershed and you will be utterly utterly fucked. A huge number of those who are planning to vote for Reform are below this watershed point.
The idea that a man who couldn't be fucked to turn up to his job in Brussels is suddenly going to have a personality transplant and start working his arse off running the country is the very definition of insanity itself. Yet unfortunately far too many people are buying into it.
Farage is in it for a get rich quick grift which will benefit him long term. Not to improve the country.
I am not always right with my political predictions but my track record is very good.
It scares the living bejesus out of me and I was saying prior to Mays deal being presented to the commons, that if people didn't recognise the dangers of being unable to deliver the undeliverable Farage would get in. I was worried then not about the next election but the one after that (May and Johnson decided to throw spanners in the works on how many elections it's actually turned out to be - my concern was really that we'd kick out the Tories, Labour would inherit a shit show and also fuck it up and we'd be left with a political void that Farage would capitalise on - I just got the number of PMs and elections wrong).
And here we are. Starring into the void.
It's shit. But predictable.