US: 'Trans tipping point'

[HerGorgeousMajestyArabellaScott]

Article on (mostly) treating children for 'trans' identities.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/19/us-news/pain-confusion-compassion-how-the-us-has-reached-a-trans-tipping-point/

'...the Supreme Court is poised to rule on the constitutionality of Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for treating gender-related distress in minors.
Oral arguments are set to begin on December 4 and legal experts expect the state will prevail.
The court’s decision could herald an end to pediatric gender-transition treatment in about two dozen states.'

Two dozen - either just under or just over half. All 'conservative' or across the divide?

Sadly I think this court case will be completely overshadowed initially by the election until maybe the decision is given.

"Stakeholders predict that, at a minimum, pediatric gender doctors will become far more cautious as this field is pummeled by lawsuits, subpoenas, and negative research reports.

These unrelenting forces could all but end pediatric gender-transition treatment nationwide in the years to come."

Interesting, as is the use of the phrase "trans tipping point" which was widely used by "progressives" to claim that gender identity ideology was on the rise in 2014/15. In the space of just a decade it's apparently swinging back the other way.

That's a more formal way of saying "peak trans". I understand that phrase is banned here. Can we use "tipping point"?

The article makes a good point, that the more detransitioners sue their healthcare provider and are successful, the higher the insurance costs will be for healthcare providers so this in itself could push the train off it's tracks.

It's detransitioners who are really making the difference here, rather than GC feminists who harp on and on about the physical harms to children, and women more generally, but get ignored or shouted down.

Detransitioners can't be ignored because they're actually able to do something.

https://time.com/135480/transgender-tipping-point/

From 2014

Her story is a reminder that the Internet has been a revolutionary tool for the trans community, providing answers to questions that previous generations had no one to ask, as well as robust communities of support. And the digital world offers a way to test the water before jumping in. As Widmer puts it, “You can be yourself on the Internet before you can be yourself in person."

Follow the money as they say...

Greedy medical providers have pushed this relentlessly and the number of clinics and hospitals has grown at a ridiculous rate. It makes sense that the threat of law suits will effectively turn the tap off when insurers refuse to fund these treatments.

It is a study in how to create and grow a market for something that just wasn't there 15-20 years ago. Amazing really.

It'd be really interesting to see those US healthcare providers' risk assessments on 'gender affirming' treatments.

I don't know.

It looks like an absolute monster of a case. Look at all the briefs filed:

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/united-states-v-skrmetti/

Gah. That was a response to Dean.

It is a good article and I think it is right. We are seeing the beginning of the end in the US which will be building in the next few years as the court cases come in. I think the actual tipping point will come in 2025 or 2026.

Note in various cases the women's group WOLF have filed Amicus briefs which give them a chance to chance to speak out.

Also we are seeing the spread of resistance in women's sport - see the Volleyball stuff recently, even more vital in the US than here because so much money is at stake way more scholarships etc in the US.

The US plastic surgeons have already jumped ship. That was a big indicator.

It will definitely be interesting to watch. I wonder if other countries will follow the US's lead if they do throw the "gender affirming care" truck into reverse? Places like Canada I think will struggle to row back on their current stance. Especially if any changes in the US occur under a Trump presidency; I think it will be seen as a partisan issue (nasty bigoted republicans going after trans people) rather than a medical or legal one.

I don't see how Democrat states can compel insurers not to increase premiums. If insurers calculate that the risks of future litigation are too great, surely they will decline to offer cover? Seems to me the tragedy of US politics is that not a single Democrat politician will stand up on this issue. It's hopelessly polarised.

I agree it's harder to see Canada rowing back on this. I think like Scotland there's the pressure of being a smaller nation and wanting to be different / more progressive.

The partisan left / right point is key too. There MUST be democrats really struggling with this.

I've come across a new substack, Democrats for an Informed Approach to Gender. It will be slow, but I hope it will become a bit more bipartisan. If the US backtrack with the help of at least some democrats, it will be easier for other countries to follow. It will also strengthen the position of other countries, like the UK, that are already rolling back.

Well actually things in Canada may change gender wise as the Conservatives are looking at a landslide in 2025.

https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-abacus-data-october/

Poilievre backs banning trans women from women's sports, change rooms and bathrooms

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-ban-trans-women-sports-bathrooms-1.7120972

Of course they may not follow through, or it may be more up to provincial government. The tone of the debate is changing at least that it looks like. Some Canadians may know more.

However, despite setbacks in Australia etc long term it seems the nature of the gender wars are changing as gender realists are getting more organised and are fighting back worldwide.

The political landscape in the USA is so different to the UK. In the UK, we have the EA and a lot of the issues of women’s/gay rights v TRA boil down to the enmeshing of LGB with TQ+. This gives a clear focal point to campaign on - LGB✂️TQ+.

I see in the USA that TQ+ is enmeshed in the whole progressive cause including LGB, women’s bodily autonomy and racial justice, thanks to the relatively polarised nature of politics. Add on the fact it’s a huge country with a state v federal legal structure and very different cultures in the states, it’s a lot harder to get any kind of non-partisan consensus.

Agreed. And of course the impact/influence of religion.

According to Google, 68% of Americans are Christian (1% Muslim) whereas in the UK it's 46.2% Christian (6.5% Muslim). The variants in Christianity in the US also have different proportions to the UK, e.g. the US has far more Mormons than the UK. Depending on the "type" of Christianity, and of course the individual Christian, the US is more likely to group LGB in with TQ++++ as morally wrong. As opposed to the UK, where there is less religious influence, simply by virtue of the percentage differences, and also (most likely) a higher proportion of Christians who support LGB relationships and are focused on the harms faced by gender questioning children (and vulnerable adults) instead of religiously influenced morality.

What’s the volleyball stuff @fromorbit ?
with any luck the ban looks like it will hold AND that kickstarts more people who hate it into getting out the Democrat vote. Double win.

Minor point: the NY Post occupies a sort-of-similar slot in the US to, maybe, the Daily Mirror in the UK. Reactionary and lowbrow. Which isn't to say they can't be right. They are about this. But their readership isn't big, and they've been past the tipping point about trans stuff since forever. But the US in general? Not as far as I can see. So far none of the dope slaps reality provides have been enough.

Thanks, I did wonder.

The Election Outcome with not effect this ruling anyway.

The majority in the Supreme Court will remain conservative leaning. That makes it hard for me to see how it will go in the other direction.

No. But it will overshadow discussion about it and reduce the likelihood of media mentions.

I don't think that's true either because it's a subject that's so polarising.

If the Reps win and this case is won it's "look how right we were and this is one of the reasons we were elected"

If the Dems win and this case is won it's "look how right we were but how the Dems are going to destroy this country"

If the Reps win and the case is lost it's "this is an almighty calamity, look at this for your example, we must resist and undo this"

If the Dems win and the case is lost it's the last above but with added madness.

This isn't going to fade into the background because it's characteristic of the overall dynamic of divisions in America and it's such a divisive topic. Because it's been deliberately used in that way. So it's representative - not dissimilar to abortion, though not quite to the same degree.

yes. But the announcement of who wins is quite a way off. This case starts rather soon. I am talking about while the case starts.

I am very sure that depending how long it goes and when the decision is handed down there will be media discussion. I am talking about while it starts and in the mean time, before and during the election and the weeks after the election.

Very happy to be proven wrong over the next 5-6 weeks.

A trans player has caused 5 teams to refuse to play in US women's volleyball:
https://sports.yahoo.com/we-didnt-want-to-play-against-a-male-player-transgender-issue-pits-female-volleyball-players-against-their-own-university-143424480.html

Getting a lot of attention. Only going to increase over time.

26 states have passed bans on experimental gender treatments of various kinds. Many have passed laws protecting women's sports too.

That wasn't the case a few years ago. That is a huge difference, just like the fact abortion is now near impossible in a bunch of states. This is not about the article or where it is published, but the facts it discusses. Things are changing WPATH is losing its grip as is other gender industry bodies.

I don't think 2024 is the trans tipping point, or the supreme court verdict alone will be. I maybe wrong and it will be seen that way in retrospect though.

I think the tipping point in the US is more likely to be in 2025 or 2026 when the first detrans cases are won, or doctors/clinics otherwise are held to account in a serious way and the money dries up.

Ultimately in the US in particular this is about a 2.1 billion dollar industry. It is all about money and a corporate backed consumer industry based on shoddy foundations. The industry profits off human suffering and stereotypes about women, men and sexualities. Cut off that profit factor and things will improve though obviously the issues will remain just in different forms.