Fascinating report by More in Common and UCL on the General Election result:
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/change-pending/
That Labour's victory came despite winning just over a third of the vote reinforces the fact that many voters wanted to remove the Conservatives from power but remained unsure about the alternative. Labour now faces the challenge of both understanding and delivering the change the country wants, to hold together and deepen their broad but likely fragile coalition.
The public’s key test for the success or failure of Labour’s delivery will be NHS waiting lists - more than half the public see mismanagement of the NHS as the Conservative’s biggest mistake since 2019, and policies on the NHS was also the top reason given by 2024 Labour voters for supporting the Party.
In fact, 63 per cent of the public say that the NHS will be the benchmark against which measure Labour’s success or failure - higher than any other delivery test.
Wes Streeting is the key to Labour's next election success or failure.
Delivery of tangible improvements to people's lives is crucial to meeting voters’ demands for change, but it must be done in a way that demonstrates respect for ordinary people and their concerns. Voters' expectations for change go beyond delivery. An overwhelming 96 per cent of voters say that respect for ordinary people is an important quality for a politician - the highest of any attribute tested, something relayed in focus group conversation after focus group conversation.
Take notes here. This is actually really really relevant to the whole ongoing debate over Women's Rights.
Labour's support now spans a much broader and less ideologically cohesive coalition than in 2019. Labour won its 174 seat majority on just a third of the popular vote - by shifting from a coalition of ideology to one of pragmatism. Voters were more likely to say they backed the party at this election they saw as the most competent, rather than whose policy’s they preferred.
The public do not want ideologically driven politicians. The public are saying it loud and clear. It is the SINGLE BIGGEST THING that the public agree on. This is important when we are taking about evidence lead policy decision making.
In 2019, Labour’s support ranged between 67 per cent with the most progressive segment of the population to just 9 per cent with the most conservative. Today that gap of 56 points has narrowed to just 27, with nearly a quarter of Backbone Conservatives supporting Labour. As a result, only about a third of Labour voters are from the more left leaning "Progressive Activist" or "Civic Pragmatist" segments, down from over half in 2019.
Labour’s support fell around 17 points from 2019 among Progressive Activists - the most left leaning segment of the population but rose 15 points with the more Cameronite “Established Liberal” segment of the population powering their gains in the Blue Wall in the south of England. Labour’s vote share was also 11 points higher than in 2019 among the more socially Conservative “Loyal National” vote group, helping them to reverse Boris Johnson’s gains in the Red Wall and win back seats in the north and midlands of England.
The centrists decided the Election. Labour's left are not nearly as important going forward as they were.
Labour’s coalition is also one of the ‘head’ rather than the ‘heart’. Nearly a quarter of those who voted Labour (23 per cent) voted for Labour for the first time. Many votes were strategic - just under three in ten (28 per cent) of 2024 Labour voters give the top reason for their vote as stopping another party from winning. Labour’s support is a coalition of valence not a coalition of ideology. Keir Starmer now faces the challenge of balancing the differing expectations and priorities of these different constituent groups.
This is noteworthy. As is the following.
The Conservative vote share collapsed to historic lows, largely due to perceptions of incompetence and chaos in government rather than ideological shifts. Conservative support is now highly concentrated in the ‘Backbone Conservative’ segment, with both more Cameronite Established Liberals deserting the party and more socially conservative Loyal Nationals switching back from their 2019 vote, costing the Conservatives seats in both the Blue and Red Walls.
There's more centrist votes there to be won if Labour manage to be competent from the Conservatives.
And
Of those who opted out on election day, 38 per cent had voted in the 2019 election. While many non-voters said they would have voted Labour, the picture is somewhat more complicated than simply left-wing abstentionism alone.
Just four percent of non-voters stayed at home because they were sure that the party they supported was going to win. Complacency is not a sufficient reason for the significant drop in turnout. Overall, 2019 Conservative voters made up a greater proportion of 2024 non-voters than 2019 Labour voters. Their decision to abstain was active rather than passive, unable to back another party but wanting to show their disapproval for the Conservatives’ record.
For 77 per cent of the 2019 Conservatives voters who abstained, this was the first time ever that they did not vote. This group exemplifies Conservatives who have lost faith in the Government they elected in 2019. The top reason 2019 Conservatives give for not voting is that they don’t trust any politicians and the main barriers they cite to voting Conservative centre around perceptions of the party as out-of-touch, corrupt and incompetent. This depressed turnout exaggerated the Conservatives’ defeat - if the Conservatives had been able to mobilise these 2019 Conservatives in 2024 it could have tipped the scales in their favour in 33 seats without having to win back a single voter who switched to another party.
And from none voters.
Take heart my friends... There are many things here that BOTH the Labour Party and the Conservatives will be taking seriously and are highly relevant to us. The full report does not even mention women's rights but I don't think it actually needs to though tbh. The issue sits inside the point of incompetence and ideologically driven policy which Labour will be keen to move away from if they take this even half as seriously as they should. Its a rejection of 'wokeism' in many respects.