I've been looking at this from the perspective of numbers.
We are talking about a patient cohort of 19,000 over a 33-year period. Pogust Goodhead suggests it is going to be about a thousand litigants. That's 5%.
A 5% return rate is definitely doable, even within a patient cohort snapped within a short time and place -- because if you ask any cohort to do something risk free for a potential benefit, you will always get at least 2-4% that will say yes.
The issue that Tavistock and NHS faces here is that this cohort spans 33 years. This isn't just about teenagers that went through GIDS in the last five to ten years (the Keira Bells and Tulips); it's also people who may have gone through GIDS in the 90s and 00s who may very well be middle aged now (the forty-five-year-old Keira Bells and Tulips).
And that is going to mean people who took puberty blockers decades ago, only to find, ten to twenty years later, that it has damaged their health and their lives in ways they were not informed it would or could. They are going to be the people who have lived the medium to long term reality of what these drugs did to them: people that have failed to find partners, secure regular employment, found themselves infertile, in premature menopause, dealing with weak bone density as a 40-something etc.
And, to my mind, that will shoot the numbers up.
The question I would ask is how many of those 19,000 patients are not going to litigate? And why would they not litigate?
Because, not to be interested in litigation, they would have to be those patients seen by GIDS who weren't given blockers or x-sex hormones, or were given those drugs but they did not do any damage.
So then it becomes: how many GIDS patients were not prescribed blockers and/or x-sex hormones? How likely is it that there are patients who took these drugs, but no observable damage was done? Because that will give a better idea of how many potential litigants there are.