It's such a difficult one, OP. I see progress being made in some areas (notably the government taking a firmer stance, though I think this is mainly for vote-winning reasons) while other institutions press on oblivious. In the week that the announcement was made to close the Tavistock GIDS, it was extraordinary to see RCOG, of all organisations, publish a lengthy consultation document about inclusivity towards trans men, using all the TRA-approved language such as chestfeeding.
As we all know, there are two elements to our concerns about the trans activist agenda. One is self-id, which allows adult men to "identify" as women and enter women's sports, women's changing rooms etc.
The other is the social contagion of young people, mostly female, identifying as the opposite sex and being sent on a medical pathway of hormones and surgery.
I think the second phenomenon is likely to grind to a halt soon. Once the Cass Review is out, once the legal actions get underway, doctors will stop blithely performing double mastectomies on 19-year old girls. Once adults and peers stop celebrating trans identities and surgical transition as something exciting and admirable, and schools adopt a "watchful waiting" approach, trans identification amongst teenage girls will go the way of other adolescent crazes.
When that happens, it will be interesting to see the impact on the first element. I think that if the pipeline of young people identifying as trans grinds to a halt, people will start to be much more sceptical about the spate of adult males suddenly finding their inner female identity. Those men will stand out as anomalous rather than being able to claim that the experience of being "born in the wrong body" is widespread and commonplace.