Sir Bernard Jenkin and shocking Crime Stats

[LilithRises]

I watched a clip of Sir Jenkin addressing parliament (shared on a previous thread) and speaking about women's safety. He outlined what the legal definition of rape was and then went on to say that from 2012-2018 the crown prosecution service recorded 436 cases of rape committed by women. He called it out as it was - crimes committed by biological men. I discussed this with a friend (who is GC) and she indicated this would be good to highlight on social media to prevent such information being suppressed. I avoid social media but come here to learn and keep updated. Maybe this is useful for Twitter ... I dont have an account. I'm just so shocked and angry,

How can we ever know what the numbers are of males being recorded as women, and females who have been charged due to conspiracy or whatever the term is....

I wish the police were keeping accurate records here.

...and females who have been charged due to conspiracy or whatever the term is....

This is extremely rare though, rape as an accomplice. We all know it's extremely rare.

It's still going to be a bare minimum of 400 raped committed by men being recorded as women.

Oh yes, sorry, I fully accept it is rare, but we can't even get the full picture because we're not gathering accurate data.

I would like to know who has got exact figures on this - it would have to be an accredited researcher who has reviewed individual case records i think. Googling it has never got me anywhere.

A couple of years ago there were 13500 men in prison for sexual offences and 125 people in women's prisons for sexual offences. The disparity is truly enormous. I do believe that womens sexual offending is probably undercounted but nothing like enough to make a dent in the split.

How can we ever know what the numbers are of males being recorded as women, and females who have been charged due to conspiracy or whatever the term is....

Because women being charged with rape under joint enterprise doesn't occur often enough to affect the stats, not even once a year, perhaps not even once a decade.

10 years ago 0% of rape convictions were committed by women each year, now it's near 2% of all rapes.

Fair Play for Women have done a lot of work on this and I think have interrogated some of the MoJ's shameful data.

fairplayforwomen.com/campaigns/prisons/

twitter.com/STILLTish/status/1502354046077878280
Slightly off topic, but in that same debate I was shocked by the statistic from Jackie Doyle MP, that 68 women were remanded in 3 prisons for their own safety, and not for committing a crime.

In the crime stats from Scotland 50% of trans (self IDing) prisoners are in jail for sex offenses compared to 5% of "cis" male prisoners. The same is seen in American crime stats. I would like someone to look into this as its quite a disparity of figures

Not data - but a shocking number of crimes going back to 2018.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3348290-It-will-never-happen-resource-thread

I'm uncertain about the 436 number. This is analysis from a committed trans activist, Mallory Moore, who normally I would expect to be very flexible with their approach to facts:

chican3ry.medium.com/alice-sullivan-and-allison-bailey-are-misleading-the-public-and-uk-government-bodies-about-rape-f9a9335f5df4

If you go to the "data on pre-charge decisions, prosecutions and convictions for rape-flagged offences and sexual offences, England and Wales" in this link:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/sexualoffendingcrownprosecutionserviceappendixtables

and then to the linked Excel document, one thing that is noticeable is that in CPS Table 1, the number of defendants who are listed as "women" in rape prosecutions from year ending March 2012 to year ending March 2018 has remained broadly level with an uptick at the end of that time period. If these are all transwomen, that means the "opposite sex reporting" problem had been in full effect in 2012. I had assumed it was a problem that had been developing over the past few years rather than already there a decade ago.

I'm not trying to sell the medium article. Instead I'm interested in having a clearer idea of what's going on.

Thanks Nauticant for the info and also the links. I was trying to find the statistics myself to look at them but wasn't having much success.

I will definitely have a look - I would agree that whatever is going on - there is a need for factual and clear reporting and analysis. Either the numbers represent biological women as "accessories to crime" or that the crimes are committed by biological men identifying as women.

Thanks also to others for posts directing me to fair play for women etc

If you want to know where the 436 figure comes from, you sum together all of the numbers (but not the percentages) of women defendants from CPS Table 1.

I'm on board with the gender critical position over this, that crime statistics are being corrupted and transwomen should not be going into the women's prison estate, and that the nature of that cohort is very concerning, but this particular number I'm unsure about.

I'd agree nauticant. Mallory Moore is a very intelligent and committed person who was once like many of us trying to find bridges across the divide. I had a few interactions with her hut she blocked me in the end. I think she got very angry at some abuses on the GC side and jumped very definitively off the fence. She remains an interesting voice.

The numbers do seem to be from that CPS/ONS table 1. I've looked and looked at various different data sources. None of them make sense. Add to that, some of the media reporting and of course people are suspicious.

Jenkin said that legislators should take responsibility for clear language. Those running public services should do the same for stats. If the CPS stats aren't meant to be read in a particular way, or are wrong, then they should come with a clear statement or they should look again at the cases. Or tell us the number is right and that they stand by them.

436 cases given to 5 people to check 87 or so each, would take 2-3 days? Depending on what they have access to, it could be cleared up in a week or two if there's the will to do so.

It's time people whose job it is to give the public clear information, stepped up and did that job. Politicians can help push that along by bringing attention to it and demanding better for the public.

Slight diversion, but I saw this earlier on Baroness Jenkin’s (BJ’s wife) twitter.

Baroness, Hello 👋 if you’re here and thank you.

Have you read the break it down for me thread?

None of them make sense because the LANGUAGE makes no sense. I have been analysing sentenced prison population data for almost 4 years! However, I have got a naming convention that CAN work numerically & statistically. I am getting sense out of it.

Hilariously Business Insider has a crack at Bernard Jenkins MP but says 436 rapes committed by women" er NO! The CPS is the Crown Prosecution Service and as we know convictions for rape are catastrophically LOW. With a certain QC suggesting that is 1.2-1.8% of all rapes that result in convictions.

1.8% of 436 peoples is...a staggering 8 convictions.
A CPS "case" is what they take to court, it is NOT a measure of convictions. 436 sounds a lot but it is nonsense. That trans-lates into 8 maybe 10 actual CONVICTIONS!

www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/mp-wrongly-suggested-436-transgender-women-committed-rape-between-2012-and-2018-says-crown-prosecution-service/articleshow/90691856.cms

Pommie69 the 436 is, as you say, number taken up by the CPS. So not the number of rapes. The number of rapes will be much much higher. Equally a greater % of that 436 would have resulted in convictions (probably still a tiny proportion though) as the crimes have already been 'filtered' to get to that stage.

1. Police collect figures of ARRESTS.
2. CPS collects figures about prosecutions (not convictions) 2b) a "case" is NOT a conviction
3. The MOJ collects figures on sentenced prison population and breaks it down by offence type.

Not all who are convicted go to jail, but those who do go to jail are serious. Magistrates and judges have been "got" and persuaded that transwomen are at risk in a male jail (nobody has produced any evidence that they are MORE at risk than any other group of male prisoners.

www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/mar/17/sarahhall

This is the only media reporting I have found. What is interesting is between 1995-2001 there were 10 cases, 1 was this one with 9 others. They broke down as:

gang members - ie pecking order with violent men
women assisting perpetrators of incest.

"A couple of years ago there were 13500 men in prison for sexual offences and 125 people in women's prisons for sexual offences. "

That figure provide by BBC Reality Check (13 Aug 2018)... 4 years ago nearly. I have all 5 years data and can give you...

2021 97 transgender* sexual offenders
177 sexual offences committed in total
40 of rape
8 of attempted rape

HMMPS published: 197 transgender prison population but only 39 transmen
Asterix* denotes MOj definition ie no GRC

2020 - transgender* data not taken due to Covid-19 lockdown coinciding with the March/April data collection

2019 my FOI arrived in Dec 2019
81 transgender* sexual offenders
146 sexual offences committed in total
40 of rape
10 of attempted rape

I am autistic so I can recite these probably in my sleep but the lawyers wont use them, they prefer old out-of-date statistics rather than hard evidence.

2018: 63 transgender* sexual offenders
111 TG* sexual offences
31 Rape
5* Attempted Rape

then we get to 2017 and the BBC Reality Check identification of this set of numbers: