New research shows only 20% of Scots voters support self-ID

[teawamutu]

Blogger commissioned Panelbase research: scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/10/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-panelbase-poll_28.html?m=1

No idea if he's reliable but the research looks reasonable.

That many, eh?

It's amazing* how the numbers changed when definitions are clearly spelled out.

*Not really

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Representative poll of 1001 over 16s.

"Gender dysphoria is a condition where a person feels a mismatch between their biological sex and their gender identity. For example, this may mean that a biologically male individual feels strongly that they are female, or a biologically female individual feels strongly that they are male. At present, most people who wish to legally change the sex or gender recorded on their birth certificate must first receive a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, but it is not necessary for them to have undergone gender reassignment surgery. The Scottish Government is committed to changing the law in Scotland within the next year to allow people to legally change their gender without a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, provided they make a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender and will continue to do so.

In your opinion, who should be eligible to legally change the sex or gender recorded on their birth certificate?

Anyone who makes a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender: 20%

Only people who have been medically diagnosed with gender dysphoria: 18%

Only people who have undergone gender reassignment surgery: 21%

No-one: 19%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 22%"

The full data tables aren't out yet as far as I can tell.

Yes, very interesting that they made such a point of explaining the terms.

Neatly cuts out all the beeeee kiiiiinnnd/most oppressed schtick and focuses on the facts.

And only just over a third of under-35s want it - and they're the most enthusiastic group.

There’s a definite pattern across all surveys of between 15-20% supporting self id and male access to female spaces. It was the same right back to Helen Stanilands original mega survey and it’s ongoing.

So 20 percent say yes and 19 percent say no, not under any circumstances. So where is the democratic mandate for change?

Most of Scotland don’t even know what the SNPand greens are planning

Stonewall and some Scottish government funded agencies pushing this

Scotland haven’t asked the government to do this

The above have Lobby groups pushing this

If it was more clearly worded they would have talked about the impossibility of changing sex and asking which people should have access to changing rooms full of 13 year old girls

(1) Anyone, boner or not
(2) Anyone who says they're a woman, boner or not
(3) Anyone who has a gender dysphoria diagnosis, boner or not
(4) Anyone who has a GRC, boner or not
(5) Anyone who is penis-free
(6) Anyone biologically female (ie no-one born male)

I suspect you could get the numbers in support of self ID down massively from 20% by being even clearer.

°If it was more clearly worded they would have talked about the impossibility of changing sex and asking which people should have access to changing rooms full of 13 year old girls^

The problem is professional polling companies won't allow questions like that as they are biased and will influence the answers.

Is this likely to have much of an impact in terms of coverage/discussion?

How influential is the blogger in question?

Questions like that certainly would influence the answers, but I;m not sure that makes them biased.

provided they make a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender and will continue to do so

That's alright then, coz men would never lie eh🤔

"I solemnly swear that I am up to no good"

@teawamutu

Is this likely to have much of an impact in terms of coverage/discussion?

How influential is the blogger in question?

I'd guess low to no impact. The media doesn't seem to care about what people actually think.

The blogger is fairly influential and well known in Scottish Independent circles.

@Whatsnewpussyhat

provided they make a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender and will continue to do so

That's alright then, coz men would never lie eh🤔

"I solemnly swear that I am up to no good"

Yes, that was my thoughts as well - anyway what exactly does 'living as a woman' mean? How is that measured or verified? Maybe if they tick a box or something, I'm sure that will never be misused .

Even those who are 'diagnosed with gender dysphoria' ,do people really believe that Self ID is the answer to that?

And people who have undergone surgery - how are we supposed to know - do we do a genital check? I don't want men in women's spaces, no matter what hormones or surgery they have had.

The whole thing is so ridiculous, and is totally unworkable in reality.

@teawamutu

Is this likely to have much of an impact in terms of coverage/discussion?

How influential is the blogger in question?

The problem is the SNP don't actually care what people think, they seem to be ploughing ahead regardless.

@teawamutu

Is this likely to have much of an impact in terms of coverage/discussion?

How influential is the blogger in question?

He's (in my opinion) highly regarded amongst independence supporters. I have read his blog for years, polling is his thing. Mostly he analyses polls, points out strengths and shortcomings, compares and contrasts different polls from different polling companies and then goes into minutiae to find out what the polls might tell us about publuc opinion and how/why it changes and what changes it.

I'd give that poll a 7 out of 10. It presupposes that respondents know what a gender identity is and that they agree that it is a universal trait. We know that this is contentious. It also does not explain what the consequences are of a legal sex change (it is not an inconsequential change and it isn't about birth certificates or administration).

But the four-answer-option is a clever tool to collect more meaningful data.

And of course, with only a third of those aged 34 or under supporting self-id and only a fifth of women supporting it, it's sending a clear signal to the Scottish Government.

SNP MSPs are far from united on this issue, and it wouldn't take too many dissenters to cause real issues for the Scottish Government.

Which party you vote for is strongly correlated with views on the GRA - much bigger minorities of SNP and Labour voters support self-ID (29% and 25% respectively) than is the case among Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters (7% and 4%). I must say I'm a bit stunned by the result among the Lib Dems, who you'd expect to be extremely liberal on social issues.

Well, well, well.

How wrong have the Lib Dems judged the hopes of their voting base?

Even those who are 'diagnosed with gender dysphoria' ,do people really believe that Self ID is the answer to that?

Self ID isn't for the benefit of the homosexual transexuals who went through the process due to dysphoria. It's for the benefit of the straight males who the old gatekeeping and diagnosis would've kept out.

Good point pussyhat . It's those who seek to exploit it we have to be careful about.

@teawamutu

Is this likely to have much of an impact in terms of coverage/discussion?

How influential is the blogger in question?

In a way, it doesn't matter about the poll itself.

What it reveals is how people think about the issues.

Which is largely in accordance with all of us on here.

Charlie they will push this through. I think. The greens are pushing it

They can’t back down. Whatshis name harvie leader of greens wants this more than any green policy

He’s just being quiet at moment as the climate conference in town

' Although the two sides are not going to suddenly start agreeing with each other just because they know what the public think, a small step towards reaching a resolution would be to at least share a common understanding of what public opinion actually is, rather than to have two competing conceptions of "what the voters want" that are completely alien from each other.'

That result is really interesting. Broadly accords with what we see on here, and IRL.

The reach of an idea that nobody believes that we should implement policies that nobody wants always amazes me.

'those who would have us believe absurdities ...'

much bigger minorities of SNP and Labour voters support self-ID (29% and 25% respectively) than is the case among Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters (7% and 4%).

Only 4% of LibDems support self-ID??? So why do LibDem politicians campaign so vociferously for self-ID? I thought their members must be passionate TRAs, but apparently not.

I’d like to know how many Greens and members of the ironically named Women’s Equality Party back their leaders’ support of self-ID.

Thanks for posting this, teawamatu. It gives a clear picture of party leaders across the board ignoring — opposing — their members’ concerns.

No, not across the board. Sigh. The Tories are listening to their membership. I know the Communist Party and SDP are too. But they are small, and I don’t think they stand candidates in many constituencies in a general election.