Picking up on the Swedish study, here's what I wrote in a thread where we discussed the issue of crime rates (I've taken out the bits that make no sense in the context of this thread.):
"The study was set up to compare criminality between those who transitioned and those who didn't.
No data was provided about crimes committed by those who transitioned prior to transitioning. It did not compare rates of criminality in pre- and post-op transsexuals but only between post-op transsexuals and control groups.
The study did indeed adjust the results, and it did so for mental health issues in recognition of the fact that those who transition have very high co-morbidities with mental health issues. (And there are higher rates of criminality in people who suffer from MH issues.)
It then presented the findings in a measure called an adjusted hazard risk or HR for short.
It found that post-op transsexuals were more likely to commit crimes than controls but only in the earlier time period when conditions for transsexuals were worse than they were for the second time period.
The study found that for the second time period, post-op transsexuals were possibly less likely to be convicted of crimes than controls of the same biological sex, but as they did not disaggregate the data by sex or violent crimes, we do not know whether this was due to female-to-male crime rates falling or male-to-female ones. So no further conclusion could be drawn about the latter period.
Quotes from the study:
Abstract
Results:
[...]
Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls.
Conclusions: Persons with transsexualism, after sex reassignment, have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behaviour, and psychiatric morbidity than the general population. Our findings suggest that sex reassignment, although alleviating gender dysphoria, may not suffice as treatment for transsexualism, and should inspire improved psychiatric and somatic care after sex reassignment for this patient group.
From the study itself
Crime rate
Transsexual individuals were at increased risk of being convicted for any crime or violent crime after sex reassignment (Table 2); this was, however, only significant in the group who underwent sex reassignment before 1989.
In this study, male-to-female individuals had a higher risk for criminal convictions compared to female controls but not compared to male controls. This suggests that the sex reassignment procedure neither increased nor decreased the risk for criminal offending in male-to-females.
[my emphasis]
In summary then, the study showed exactly what we say it showed: male to female (post-op) transsexuals retained male patterns of criminality. They pose the exact same risk as all other males. They pose a much higher risk than female controls.
This is also born out by the rate of conviction for sexual crimes for male GRC-holders in the UK, which again showed convictions at the rate predicted for males.
It must be emphasised that these figures concern only post-op transsexuals (for the Swedish study) or those who have a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria (for male GRC-holders).
There is absolutely no question about the risk posed by males who merely self-identify as trans. Claiming a female identity does not magically lower the risk a male poses to females.
The statistics discussed above demonstrate that even a medical diagnosis and/or fully transitioning does not change the risk a male poses either."
And I'll just add here that in a discussion about the much larger group of those who self-identify but do not transition medically, there is no evidence whatsoever that feeling like a woman, growing one's hair long, crying at movies, or favouring stereotypically feminine pursuits lowers the risk a male poses to female people.