This is the most recent relevant document on the website of the Office for Statistical Regulation (my bolding):
"Ed Humpherson to Iain Bell: Assessment of 2021 Censuses in the UK – ONS Response to Preliminary Findings"
Dated
11 September 2020
Sent by:
Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation, Office for Statistics Regulation
Sent to:
Iain Bell
Deputy National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Dear Iain
Assessment of 2021 Censuses in the UK – Office for National Statistics (ONS) Response to Preliminary Findings
We have reviewed the actions that your team has taken to address the findings in Assessment Report 345: 2021 Censuses in the UK – Preliminary Findings. These findings aim to build on the existing work being undertaken by Census offices, providing further direction and focus on pre-existing plans.
The Office for Statistics Regulation’s (OSR’s) advice on the National Statistics designation will be based on the trustworthiness, quality and value secured by Census offices. That advice will take account of the actions taken to address findings or requirements from OSR as part of this assessment process. While many of the Phase 1 findings can only be fully actioned or addressed over longer timescales, it is my view that ONS has responded positively to the assessment findings so far. ONS has been open to challenge from the assessment team and I am encouraged that improvements have been made in a number of areas. The Census is one of the most important sources of official statistics and I recognise the ongoing commitment of ONS to deliver high quality data and statistics; recognising the challenges and changes in ways of working that have had to be managed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since we published our assessment report in October 2019, my team has engaged with various members of your staff working on the Census to understand the improvements you have made since then. I welcome the openness and flexibility that has been shown to the assessment team. In evaluating how ONS has responded to our findings we have taken account of published materials from ONS including the evidence report Response to actionable findings from Phase 1 of the National Statistics Accreditation, alongside information gathered through meetings and workshops held with your teams. I consider that some actions taken by ONS are of note.
- My team held a number of workshops with staff who have been working to develop methods, on areas such as item imputation and census coverage adjustment. We consider that ONS is taking a rigorous approach to its methods development. We are very pleased to see that methods papers, which have been reviewed by your external Methodological Assurance Review panel, are now in the public domain. This is a significant improvement to aid transparency and share knowledge and expertise with the wider community of expert users and stakeholders.
- Some findings from our assessment report involved making improvements to recognise the needs of UK Census data users. ONS has taken a lead role in addressing these findings and has established a UK Census data working group – with representation from across the Census offices; we recognise the commitment and energy of ONS staff working in this area.
- The questions to be asked in the Census in 2021 have been finalised. However, we are aware that some stakeholders have outstanding concerns with the guidance on the Census sex question. ONS has continued to engage with users and stakeholders about this and we recognise the efforts being made to provide answers or explanations on areas of concern. ONS should seek to address outstanding concerns raised by users within its further question testing and research on the guidance on the sex question. ONS should share the outcomes of this research in a transparent and open way.
We consider that further action is still needed in some areas identified for improvement in our assessment report – this is partly due to changing circumstances such as the impacts on programme delivery given the pandemic. For example, while ONS has plans to make improvements to its website, to date there has been little change made to make it more accessible. Key documents and materials are not easy to find and navigation on the webpages is not intuitive. ONS should implement its plans over the coming months to improve the accessibility of research and other Census information on its website.
In the assessment report the need to be clear to users on the impacts of country-specific decision making on UK Census data and statistics. Due to the decision by Scottish Ministers to delay the Census in Scotland, it is even more important ONS work with the other Census offices to explain the impacts of this to UK Census data users.
From speaking with your teams, it is clear ONS recognises the importance of communicating to England and Wales Census data users about delivering its Census in 2021 and on its scheduled plans for Census outputs. Users should be kept up to date and be provided with further detail as more information on the timing and content of statistical outputs becomes available.
We have included more detail about our judgement in an annex to this letter (See PDF download). I, or my team, would be happy to talk you or your colleagues through any aspects of this letter or Code compliance more generally.
I am copying this letter to Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician and Stephanie Howarth, Interim Chief Statistician, Welsh Government.
Yours sincerely
Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation
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See original for links to other documents:
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-iain-bell-assessment-of-2021-censuses-in-the-uk-ons-response-to-preliminary-findings/
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PDF including Annex to the letter above:
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Ed_Humperson_to_Iain_Bell.pdf
Annex A Review of actions1 taken in response to Assessment Report 345: 2021 Censuses in the UK – Preliminary findings
The relevant section is 2 on page 4 (see image attached).
Findings
- There has been much public debate relating to proposals for Census questions and the question development process across Census offices. Census offices must ensure their actions and decisions are visibly taken with the honesty, integrity and independence necessary to deliver data and statistics that are of high quality and serve the public good. Census offices should be open and transparent on their decision-making processes and in their decisions on Census questions and guidance, particularly in relation to any areas of contention.
Actions taken by ONS to address findings
ONS has published additional question development materials since the completion of the first phase of the assessment, these include
• Question and questionnaire development overview for Census 2021 (published March 2020) which provides users with information of the development processes including approach to question development, research methods, and criteria to evaluate question design.
• Summary of testing for Census 2021 (published March 2020) which lists all testing conducted between 2016 and 2020 that informed the question design for Census 2021 in an excel spreadsheet.
• Question development reports (published June 2020) which explain the research, testing and evaluation carried out on question design on topics such as sex and gender identity, ethnic group tick-box, national identity, ethnic group, language and religion, armed forces, qualifications and housing.
Materials on question development are all published on a common webpage.
ONS has kept the assessment team informed of activity, particularly in relation to the guidance for the sex question in the Census. The assessment team understands that there has been ongoing engagement with users and stakeholders on this subject and that ONS has committed to undertake further testing and engagement with data users.
OSR’s evaluation of evidence
ONS has published a range of materials to evidence its decision-making processes on Census questions. The question development overview, which provides details of its research methods, questionnaire design and evaluation criteria, is particularly useful in this regard.
The summary of all testing undertaken by ONS on Census questions and questionnaires is a helpful resource. This should be kept updated and would be further enhanced if it provided a link through to testing outcomes, such as topic reports where feasible.
While a range of materials has been published, the assessment team considers that more could be done to alert users and interested parties of new content when it is released.
The assessment team thinks it essential for ONS to consider the concerns raised by users during its further testing and research on the guidance on the sex question, and consider the impact of data quality on the analysis of small sub-groups of the population.
ONS should continue to engage with stakeholders particularly in relation to areas of contention, meet any commitments it has made, and seek to provide answers or explanations on areas of concern, in a transparent and open way.
(See PDF for links to other documents)
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Am I being unduly cynical in thinking that in the last paragraph
"stakeholders" might have been interpreted very narrowly?
It is very difficult to understand how the concerns of very senior statisticians have been disregarded by the Office of National Statistics. Were they even recognised as "stakeholders" and consulted??
