Help with trans-women assaults vs women assaults

[Kalula]

I know the subject line doesn't make much sense, I can't really think of a better title and am in a bit of a hurry. I'm in a debate with a TRA who is pushing the 'trans women are sexually assaulted more than cis women and are a more vulnerable group than cis women' (paraphrased) line.

He has linked to an article showing how trans women have a shockingly high rate of sexual assault.

Now, I know that there must be some counter argument to this, some facts, links etc, so I'm trying googling but not really getting much. Do any of you savvy women have any info I can use to defend women?

jj

The data given in response to the FOI request are freely available so you are able to give an alternative analysis if you wish.

Do these data support an assertion that TW patterns of offending are consistent with women's patterns of offending?

which completely ignores anything which might undermine their argument.

Such as?

NB: even if TW patterns of offending were the same as female patterns of offending, I would still be campaigning for women's prisons to be single-sex because single-sex spaces for women are not for females-plus-harmless-males. They are for females.

@334bu

Still waiting for your evidence jj

There is no published evidence as you know. So making assumptions is incorrect.

I would also still be campaigning for male crime to be recorded in the male stats, not the female stats and for male prisoners to be recorded as male, notwithstanding GRC.

If TW patterns of offending differ from male patterns of offending, this sort of transparency would help to clarify matters.

Why would you say it is incorrect to make the assumption that a group of males will tend to behave in a similar way to other males?

It seems likely however...... many....some.....there is seemingly...... If..... you'd expect to see..... I'm not aware of …..I'm not sure …... I've certainly never heard....

And yet when females talk about their perspective you state a requirement that they present sourced evidence, to a set standard with x considerations before you will even consider their point of view?

This isn't a competition. It's possible to care about two different groups in this awful situation, so what is this about? Wanting a statement that TW have it the hardest and get to be named the winner of some awful contest? Or are we back into this being point one of a pressed idea: that if it can be established that TW are in worse danger than female people then it's justified to remove single spaces from female people?

"White middle class men in the uk who identify as trans have even lower assult rates that white middle class men who doint identify as trans."

"But rejoice, if your not in this group things are much much better. In the UK you are less likely to be assaulted as a transwoman than a male."

@fakenina and/or @Apollo440Apollo440, do you have a link to good data on this? Thanks very much.

@KeepPrisonsSingleSex

jj

The data given in response to the FOI request are freely available so you are able to give an alternative analysis if you wish.

Do these data support an assertion that TW patterns of offending are consistent with women's patterns of offending?

The data doesn't support anything really. The claim is that trans women retain male patterns of criminality after transition. We have no idea how many of the people in Fairplay's figures committed their crime pre or post transition. We have no idea exactly what percentage of people are trans, and whether a long prison sentence makes people more, or less likely, to come out as trans. We don't know what the impact of transphobia in the criminal justice system is, or the impact of economic marginalisation. We don't even know if these figures are comparing like with like. Trans prisoners who have had a case review are likely to be longer term prisoners (who are more likely to be sex offenders) and as such should be compared to longer term prisoners, not the prison population as a whole.

If it was a study intended for peer review it would have addressed some of these issues. But it's not, it's a blogpost. And thank goodness actual academic researchers don't make assumptions about inherent levels of criminality amongst marginalised groups based on prison populations given the massive over representation in prisons of some ethnic groups.

@334bu

Why would you say it is incorrect to make the assumption that a group of males will tend to behave in a similar way to other males?

Are gay men likely to represent the same sexual threat to women as straight men?

If TW patterns of offending differ from male patterns of offending, this sort of transparency would help to clarify matters.

It would.

This is why it would help to record offending by sex and by gender, and hold this kind of data, because at the moment no one knows.

But female people's right to female only spaces for privacy, dignity and respect for being a class able to organise in their own right instead of being in the ownership of male people and entitled only to such spaces as males grant them - remains whether no TW in the history of time has ever committed any kind of offense or presents a threat.

Because females are not a subordinate race, whatever some may like to think.

Are gay men likely to represent the same sexual threat to women as straight men?

Men are less likely to sexually assault members of the sex class they're not attracted to. Most TW are attracted to women, not to men. You're making an argument for keeping TW out of women's spaces.

As many transwomen are not homosexual why are they not as likely to be a sexual threat to women as other males?

jj

So it doesn't support the assertion that TW don't retain male patterns of offending. Nor does it support the assertion that TW have female patterns of offending. Would you agree?

@KeepPrisonsSingleSex

jj

So it doesn't support the assertion that TW don't retain male patterns of offending. Nor does it support the assertion that TW have female patterns of offending. Would you agree?

No I don't think it shows that. I don't think it shows us anything at all really. I also think the fact that not one trans woman was reportedly convicted of rape or sexual assault in 2020 and only one trans woman has been convicted of rape in the last four years suggests there is somewhat more to this story than Fair Play suggest.

I would also like to remind everyone that any data recording TW in prison EXCLUDES all males with a GRC, as these individuals are recorded as female/women and only as female/women.

This is one of the reasons why I don't get hung up on the data. The MoJ/HMPPS have designed it such that it is impossible to even count the true number of males in the female estate: whatever figure is produced will always be an undercount, as the MoJ freely admits.

Another reason why I don't get hung up on data is that even if all TW in prison are harmless, indeed even if all men in prison are luffly, this isn't an argument against women's prisons being single-sex. Single-sex spaces for women are for females, not females-plus-luffly-males.

(Note to mods: luffly used in the wider spirit of established MN discourse where this is a common and much-used term.)

@allmywhat

Are gay men likely to represent the same sexual threat to women as straight men?

Men are less likely to sexually assault members of the sex class they're not attracted to. Most TW are attracted to women, not to men. You're making an argument for keeping TW out of women's spaces.

Studies on trans people's sexuality have varied over time, however all have shown that trans women are considerably more likely to be exclusively attracted to men than men are.

So based on this, even if its just 20% excusively male attracted, you would not expect trans women on the whole to represent the same risk as men. If that were true then it would mean that trans women who are attracted to women are more likely than men to be sexual offenders - and that is a claim which requires substantial evidence - of which there is none.

If so few transwomen have been convicted of sex offences are all the sex offenders in prison who say they are transwomen all liars?

@334bu

If so few transwomen have been convicted of sex offences are all the sex offenders in prison who say they are transwomen all liars?

Can't be, can they? Not one single predatory man would ever pretend to be a woman to try and gain access to females. Never ever. Impossible.

@334bu

If so few transwomen have been convicted of sex offences are all the sex offenders in prison who say they are transwomen all liars?

I have no idea. I think it's very possible that transition has an impact on offending patterns, particularly medical transition when it comes to sexual offending. I also suspect there may be a degree of transphobia within the criminal justice system. I'd be interested to see some work done on it, assuming it was done in a rigorous and sensitive way and didn't just cherry pick facts to suit an argument as FPFW do.

jj

You are assuming transparency of data re convictions/imprisonment.

We do not know. We only know those cases that are reported in the media and where it is obvious that this is a TW. Most crime, including serious crime, is not reported in the media. So we will miss it. And given that male crime is now reported in the female stats as having been committed by a woman (certainly for those with GRC and the evidence suggests also at least some without a GRC) looking at lawpages won't help. A further complication is that even where an entry does appear in lawpages, the details may be redacted. There is one moderately well-known case (quoted on here in the past) where the female name is listed on lawpages, but the full record is unavailable (at least to the general public). I have assumed that this may be because the individual does not have a GRC and in this case was recorded as male, and for reasons of privacy the record has been withheld. Of course this is an assumption, and there are other reasons why in this type of offence (child sexual offending) the full record has not been made available.

*.

So based on this, even if its just 20% excusively male attracted, you would not expect trans women on the whole to represent the same risk as men. *

Evidence????????

jj

The first proper piece of research I'd like to see done in this area is an impact assessment on women in prison of the policy of housing males with them.

Because that has never been done. Never. Not before any of the policies. Not after. Never. No one has ever bothered.

So if MoJ or HMPPS are going to do any research, that should be their priority.

In fact, there would need to be at least 2317 transwomen in prison for the figure of 76 transwomen sex offenders to reflect the lower female levels of sex offending of 3%. For this to be true as many as 95% of all transwomen sent to prison would need to be hiding their trans status when sent to prison. There is no evidence to suggest such a large level of under-counting exists.

Just pointing out that the data FPFW posted conclusively shows that transwomen DO NOT have female patterns of offending. You can argue over whether it shows they have male patterns of offending or whether it shows they are more likely to be sex offenders than other men (this is the most obvious conclusion to draw on the face of it) or whether there is wiggle room to pretend there's a possibility they aren't quite as bad as other men, but you can state beyond any doubt that they don't offend like women.

And once again: women's single-sex spaces are for females, not females-and-same-sex-attracted-males.

Not even the most generous reading of the EA exceptions would draw that conclusion.