Rape statistics and false allegations

[WisdomOfCrowds]

Sorry, this is a long post. I was debating with my SIL and her partner earlier about false rape allegations. Her partner reckons he knows someone who's being falsely accused and is outraged about it, saying we need to do something to stop "all these false allegations from women who just change their minds later". Saying that false allegations are in fact extremely rare, and that I'll worry about the small number of false allegations being made after society has dealt with the enormous number of unpunished real allegations makes me a sexist apparently. As does saying I think feminism should be about fighting for women's rights rather than men's rights. Anyway, I wanted to send her an email fact checking some of the stuff they were saying, but I wanted to get feedback on it here first.

Hey, I just wanted to follow up on our conversation yesterday about false allegations in rape cases. I wanted to get a better grip on the statistics we were talking about, and I've put some links in so you can check for yourself that I'm not cherry picking my data. I'm going to quote mostly from the 2013 ONS report as they have the best breakdown regarding prosecution, but the most recent report does differ slightly.

<a class="break-all" href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106113426/www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/an-overview-of-sexual-offending-in-england---wales/december-2012/index.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106113426/www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/an-overview-of-sexual-offending-in-england---wales/december-2012/index.html

So, the aggregated data from 2009-2012 found that an average of 404,000 females per year reported having been the victim of a sexual offence (the 2016 ONS report puts this figure at 510,000.)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017#sexual-offences-recorded-by-the-police

Of this number, around 85,000 were victims of rape. Of those who said they had been raped, only 15% said they had reported the offence to the police. So, around 12,750 police reports. Taking the 2011 data, of those reports, 9,900 defendants were proceeded against at the magistrates’ court accused of sexual offences. Of those defendants, 2,900 were prosecuted, and of those that were prosecuted just under 2/3 were convicted. So, around 1,900. 404,00 sexual offences, 85,00 rapes, 1,900 convictions. So, what happened to the 3,000 rape reports that never made it to court, or the 8,000 cases that never resulted in prosecution? Well, for one thing the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has some pretty strict guidelines on the standards of evidence required for a rape case to continue to or through court.

www.cps.gov.uk/publication/cps-policy-prosecuting-cases-rape

The CPS policy says:

"Proving the absence of consent is usually the most difficult part of a rape prosecution, and is the most common reason for a rape case to fail. Prosecutors will look for evidence such as injury, struggle, or immediate distress to help them prove that the victim did not consent, but frequently there may be no such corroborating evidence. This does not mean that these cases can never be successfully prosecuted, but it does mean that they are more difficult. In the absence of any other evidence to help prove the victim did not consent, there is the possibility that some cases may fail to meet the evidential stage of the Code for Crown Prosecutors (...) A case may not proceed, not because the prosecution does not believe the victim, but because, when considering all the available evidence in the case, there is not enough to meet the evidential stage of the Code test."

So, that rules out cases of coerced consent, consent given without sufficient capacity, cases where the victim was too traumatised to report the incident straight away, or was too afraid to fight back. It rules out the many many cases of people who told themselves at the time that it didn't "count" and it wasn't "proper rape" because the alternative was just too awful. It rules out, basically, anyone who didn't act like a "proper" victim, even though the CPS itself list "you can tell if they 'really' have been raped by how they act" and "victims cry rape when they regret having sex or want revenge" as two of the most damaging and untrue rape myths. If you doubt the strictness of the required evidence to get a rape allegation to court then I urge you to read this thread:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3507582-So-what-does-it-take-to-get-a-rape-case-through-then.

It's upsetting, but read at least the first page for full details of what didn't qualify as enough evidence.

Given the fact that the overwhelming number of number of people experiencing sexual crimes are not even reporting them, and that the majority of these fail the CPS evidentiary stage unless (or even if) they meet archaic standards of "victim behaviour", the idea that "false allegations" (which by definition have no evidence) could realistically proceed to a conviction, is simply untenable. Now, I'm not saying it never happens that false allegations are made. I had to dig around a bit for some data but I found a report by the home office which covers stats for false allegations in the early 2000.

<a class="break-all" href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100408125722/www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100408125722/www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf

This report identifies 216 cases classified as false allegations, amounting to about 8% of reports made in those years. However, in only six of these cases was there evidence of anyone being arrested, and in only two cases were charges laid. Of these 2 charges, both were acquitted. In almost half of these cases the person making the accusation admitted it was false or retracted their statement within days. In 2012 CPS released a report which identified 121 false reports, accounting for about 0.6% of allegations. Of these, 35 people as having been prosecuted for perverting the cause of justice.

www.cps.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/publications/perverting_course_of_justice_march_2013.pdf

The report says that that a significant number of these allegations were made by people who were young (about half were under 21), vulnerable, suffering from mental health problems, and that "in some cases, the person alleged to have made the false report had undoubtedly been the victim of some kind of offence, even if not the one which he or she had reported." In 38% of these cases the initial report of rape hadn't even been made by the alleged victim, but by a 3rd party, with the actual alleged victim denying that any rape took place. In many cases there was evidence that the victims had been coerced to retract their statements, such as backgrounds of substantial domestic violence.

I'm not going to compare these statistics directly as they cover different time periods and data gathering methods and I don't want to be disingenuous, however one thing is clear, and that is that women who are victims of sexual crimes are, in the over whelming number of cases, not receiving justice, whilst men who are victims of false allegations are not facing legal consequences. I cannot find a single case of a man being falsely convicted of rape in the UK, and only 1 case of a man who was falsely convicted of attempted rape back in the late 90s. Maybe it's happening and we just aren't hearing about it, but for the reasons listed above I strongly doubt it. Of course the emotional trauma of these accusations should be taken seriously, but when compared to the physical and emotional trauma of the 92-98% of women who are telling the truth, most of whom are not seeing justice, it would be madness to assume that false allegations are the issue which needs addressing. In fact, with only 1.9% of rape cases being prosecuted, vs 28% of false allegations resulting in prosecution, I think we're already taking that problem quite seriously enough!

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/rape-cases-uk-prosecutions-prison-time-fall-government-review-disclosure-a8809236.html

So, (this will be my last point I promise!) why are false allegation myths so widespread and why are we so ready to assume women are lying? My answer circles us back to the #MeToo movement. According to ONS data "around 90 per cent of victims of the most serious sexual offences knew the perpetrator." And thanks to #MeToo we now know that we all know a victim. And if we know the victim and the victim knows the attacker, then there's a good chance that we know the attacker. That the attacker is our friend, our colleague, maybe even our family member. I don't know about you but that's not something I want to believe. I love my brother. My brother is a wonderful kind man. If my brother is ever accused of rape the overwhelming statistical likelihood will be that he did it, but no doubt my whole body will urge me to put him in the small percentage of men who are falsely accused. How much easier to say that the woman lied for nefarious reasons than to consider the alternative. Every sexual offender out there is the brother or friend or son of someone who want's to believe with all their heart that he didn't do it. And as women we are trained our whole lives to centre men and to support them and to put their feelings and needs before those of women. So we tell ourselves the same stories that we've been telling ourselves for centuries - that women are wicked, vindictive liars whilst men are innocent victims. Why else would we believe that a few men facing false allegations for which there are no legal consequences, whilst the majority of guilty men are prosecuted, is an unthinkable perversion of justice, whilst believing that it's worth it for thousands of rapists to walk free as long as no innocent men get their reputations damaged in the process? I'm telling you, if I could sacrifice my reputation to give those women justice I'd do it today and I'd do it a thousand times over. I understand why you want to find a way to protect both men (from false allegations) and women (from sexual assaults), but whilst the number of men affected by the former is in the hundreds and the number of women affected by the latter is in the hundreds of thousands, my feminism will continue to centre women.

What a crackingly good, evidence-based analysis, Wisdom

As you've shown - a "retraction" is not a false allegation. It means: "I'm not going to put myself through this ordeal. I'm not going to go on trial, with defence lawyers trawling through my mobile phone, my facebook pages and my social media. I'm not going to live with the stress, waiting to hear that the CPS feel that there is a reasonable chance of a conviction, or waiting months and years to give evidence before a jury. I'd prefer to deal with this myself and I might well contact a Rape Crisis Centre or helpline. Maybe I should have gone to a specialist Rape service in the first place.'

Personally, I would like to see the creation of new offences within the category of 'rape'. At the moment, a woman has to be beaten up and hospitalised by a stranger to convince CPS to prosecute and juries to convict the perpetrator.

Thousands of rapists are arrested but walk free from police stations following CPS decisions - and they are the ones who make up the lies about 'false allegations'.

@WisdomOfCrowds that is a fantastic piece of work. I am going to save this and digest.
Have you thought of trying to get this published? This piece deserves to be in the National press.

I think it depends on who you are sending it too. Of course your info is well researched and true but if you want to change someones mind then I would go with short and simple, perhaps the part about 8% of rape allegations being false.

I've noticed that convictions for false accusations attract a lot more attention and vitriol than convictions for rape

Brilliantly done.

This is excellent. I hear plenty of men complain that some women make false rape allegations and I always tell them that, even as men, they are statistically more likely to actually be raped than falsely accused of rape. Sorry I can't remember where I got that info from but I think there are about an estimated 12,000 men raped each year in the UK. The sex of the perpetrator is the same as for women. In a nutshell men are more of a risk to all of us.

When it's their own family, or someone they know, everyone thinks the allegations are false. Your email is brilliant but I don't know if it's going to change the person's mind. There's evidence that being presented with facts just hardens people's attitudes when they're partisan.

That is really well done.

Thats a excellent post wisdom

I wont remember any of it next time im having the argument but at least i know where to direct them to!!

I think people can be against rape and against false accusations of rape at the same time. I’m not sure why they have to be mutually exclusive. If anyone does either police investigate, cps decides wether or not to bring a case. Case meets the burden of proof, perpetrator is punished.

One can also have empathy and compassion for victims of either. Why do so many people seem to think it’s an either/or proposition?

It's not an either or proposition. I doubt anyone posting here thinks that. The point being made is that there is no need to focus on false allegations of rape over and above any other crime, as if there is some kind of epidemic or especially troubling rise in them. They are vanishingly rare. The conviction rate is much much higher than for rape cases themselves of which there are many many more.

It is not sexist to want to focus on rape prosecutions/conviction rates, as a feminist. It is entirely appropriate, proportionate, rational and sensible.

Thanks for this post. That was so well put wisdom.
Added to watch list as I have a couple of people I'd like to share it with.
A really great summary of some of the barriers women face in being believed.

Part of the issue is an assumption that 'not guilty' = Innocent, therefore false allegations

Scotland has a not proven outcome which might help with that

Also harder to prosecute and prove rape because you can't consent to be stabbed or mugged but apparently you can be classed has having consents to be beaten up if sex takes place and he claims consensual s&m

Great summary. I agree could / should be a blog post. I wonder what percentage of false crimes are reported on non sexual crimes and what is the sex of the person accusing? And what percentage of these people are "vulnerable" or retract accusations.

I guess the point I'm querying is - is it human nature to report false crime? And not some dastardly act against males.

Great post OP. I'm reminded of the amazing sexual violence advocate Jessica Eaton who says she no longer advises women to report rape to the police because they are being failed to such an extent it is just too detrimental for their mental health.

And yes to think we live in a time where its not cool for feminism to centre females.

Well I have no quarrel with anyone who wants to focus on either. I don’t particularly care which is more commonplace, murder is less common than rape by quite a large margin and I’m not keen on that either.

I absolutely and wholeheartedly agree on the point that there is this common misconception that just because a man is found not guilty it must therefore follow that the woman must have lied. I guess this is where the two crimes somewhat overlap in public consciousness, and I think this comes from the general public not quite understanding how the judicial system works.

Given that the burden of proof is so high at a criminal trial (and rightly so imo) some guilty people go free rather than risk the possibility of depriving an innocent person of their liberty.

I think the broader conversation around rape and sex itself needs to change, I think being more sympathetic towards rape victims would be a good idea. Also one can hold the notion of innocent until proven guilty and beyond a reasonable doubt in addition to believing women. As we’ve established guilty men will go free therefore there will be plenty of women who fail to see justice in their individual cases. The least we could do is be sympathetic to them. After all that state of affairs isn’t contraditorary but indeed implicit in the system as it stands.

It's the demanding that feminist must focus on false allegations that is the issue, and that not to do so is sexist. That's clearly absurd.

It is a deeply unpleasant diversionary tactic, to repeatedly raise the "issue" of false allegations of rape, when the conversation should be about rape itself and the terrible conviction rate. They are not equivalent, not even slightly, not even in the same ballpark.

'Changed their mind later' is such a pathetic excuse. As is 'ashamed to have done it'. Because basically if you just regretted sleeping with someone, you would try to forget it ,not drag it out for years and years through the bloody courts

Well personally focus on what you want to focus on. I don’t mean that like you need my permission in anyway but that’s what we should all afford one another. The freedom to pursue whatever causes we are passionate about.

In my experience people who leap to whattaboutery tend to do very little to non actual advocacy or activism of their own, and personally I inquire what do they actually do to stick their neck out for a cause/ideal that is close to their hearts. When the answer comes back as “nothing” I tend to answer “well then you have precisely nothing to say I have any interest in hearing”.

I have more time for people I may disagree with who at least DO something with their time. At least they are passionate enough about something to get stuck in trying to make things better.

I don’t understand the ‘they do it for fame and money’ bullshit argument when it involves someone with a high profile.
Particularly because the victim remains anonymous, but they never seem to notice that.

I think what you’ve written is brilliant, but if I’m honest, I doubt they’ll read a word of it

People don’t want to be proved wrong, they’ve got their opinions and they’re not going to let a little thing like ‘the facts’ change it...

Well, yes, that's what whataboutery is for, to shut the other person up. They're not interested in a genuine discussion about their pet topic, it's just to derail and distract a conversation. Hence the accompanying accusations of sexism or whatever. It's not a genuine good faith discussion point.

I think there have been some high profile reports that have spectacularly failed, quite publically too. There was a Rolling Stones article where a young girl was interviews about a gang rape at a prominent US campus. The journalist did not do due diligence and it turned out to be manifestly false. Trouble is this article sparked this whole fear of rapes on campuses and spectacularly undermined the whole cause.

There is also this pattern of the left weaponising sexual assaults vs right wing opponents in a way that rarely happens to those on the left (although it’s starting to happen unfortunately).

In short the issue of sexual assault/rape isn’t given the gravity and focus and solid reporting it deserves.

We may not agree on every point assassinated, but please don’t take from my posts I don’t respect you in anyway. It’s a thorny problem and like I said earlier I have every respect and admiration for those who stand for something.