Rape statistics and false allegations

[WisdomOfCrowds]

Sorry, this is a long post. I was debating with my SIL and her partner earlier about false rape allegations. Her partner reckons he knows someone who's being falsely accused and is outraged about it, saying we need to do something to stop "all these false allegations from women who just change their minds later". Saying that false allegations are in fact extremely rare, and that I'll worry about the small number of false allegations being made after society has dealt with the enormous number of unpunished real allegations makes me a sexist apparently. As does saying I think feminism should be about fighting for women's rights rather than men's rights. Anyway, I wanted to send her an email fact checking some of the stuff they were saying, but I wanted to get feedback on it here first.

Hey, I just wanted to follow up on our conversation yesterday about false allegations in rape cases. I wanted to get a better grip on the statistics we were talking about, and I've put some links in so you can check for yourself that I'm not cherry picking my data. I'm going to quote mostly from the 2013 ONS report as they have the best breakdown regarding prosecution, but the most recent report does differ slightly.

<a class="break-all" href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106113426/www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/an-overview-of-sexual-offending-in-england---wales/december-2012/index.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160106113426/www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/an-overview-of-sexual-offending-in-england---wales/december-2012/index.html

So, the aggregated data from 2009-2012 found that an average of 404,000 females per year reported having been the victim of a sexual offence (the 2016 ONS report puts this figure at 510,000.)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017#sexual-offences-recorded-by-the-police

Of this number, around 85,000 were victims of rape. Of those who said they had been raped, only 15% said they had reported the offence to the police. So, around 12,750 police reports. Taking the 2011 data, of those reports, 9,900 defendants were proceeded against at the magistrates’ court accused of sexual offences. Of those defendants, 2,900 were prosecuted, and of those that were prosecuted just under 2/3 were convicted. So, around 1,900. 404,00 sexual offences, 85,00 rapes, 1,900 convictions. So, what happened to the 3,000 rape reports that never made it to court, or the 8,000 cases that never resulted in prosecution? Well, for one thing the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has some pretty strict guidelines on the standards of evidence required for a rape case to continue to or through court.

www.cps.gov.uk/publication/cps-policy-prosecuting-cases-rape

The CPS policy says:

"Proving the absence of consent is usually the most difficult part of a rape prosecution, and is the most common reason for a rape case to fail. Prosecutors will look for evidence such as injury, struggle, or immediate distress to help them prove that the victim did not consent, but frequently there may be no such corroborating evidence. This does not mean that these cases can never be successfully prosecuted, but it does mean that they are more difficult. In the absence of any other evidence to help prove the victim did not consent, there is the possibility that some cases may fail to meet the evidential stage of the Code for Crown Prosecutors (...) A case may not proceed, not because the prosecution does not believe the victim, but because, when considering all the available evidence in the case, there is not enough to meet the evidential stage of the Code test."

So, that rules out cases of coerced consent, consent given without sufficient capacity, cases where the victim was too traumatised to report the incident straight away, or was too afraid to fight back. It rules out the many many cases of people who told themselves at the time that it didn't "count" and it wasn't "proper rape" because the alternative was just too awful. It rules out, basically, anyone who didn't act like a "proper" victim, even though the CPS itself list "you can tell if they 'really' have been raped by how they act" and "victims cry rape when they regret having sex or want revenge" as two of the most damaging and untrue rape myths. If you doubt the strictness of the required evidence to get a rape allegation to court then I urge you to read this thread:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3507582-So-what-does-it-take-to-get-a-rape-case-through-then.

It's upsetting, but read at least the first page for full details of what didn't qualify as enough evidence.

Given the fact that the overwhelming number of number of people experiencing sexual crimes are not even reporting them, and that the majority of these fail the CPS evidentiary stage unless (or even if) they meet archaic standards of "victim behaviour", the idea that "false allegations" (which by definition have no evidence) could realistically proceed to a conviction, is simply untenable. Now, I'm not saying it never happens that false allegations are made. I had to dig around a bit for some data but I found a report by the home office which covers stats for false allegations in the early 2000.

<a class="break-all" href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100408125722/www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100408125722/www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf

This report identifies 216 cases classified as false allegations, amounting to about 8% of reports made in those years. However, in only six of these cases was there evidence of anyone being arrested, and in only two cases were charges laid. Of these 2 charges, both were acquitted. In almost half of these cases the person making the accusation admitted it was false or retracted their statement within days. In 2012 CPS released a report which identified 121 false reports, accounting for about 0.6% of allegations. Of these, 35 people as having been prosecuted for perverting the cause of justice.

www.cps.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/publications/perverting_course_of_justice_march_2013.pdf

The report says that that a significant number of these allegations were made by people who were young (about half were under 21), vulnerable, suffering from mental health problems, and that "in some cases, the person alleged to have made the false report had undoubtedly been the victim of some kind of offence, even if not the one which he or she had reported." In 38% of these cases the initial report of rape hadn't even been made by the alleged victim, but by a 3rd party, with the actual alleged victim denying that any rape took place. In many cases there was evidence that the victims had been coerced to retract their statements, such as backgrounds of substantial domestic violence.

I'm not going to compare these statistics directly as they cover different time periods and data gathering methods and I don't want to be disingenuous, however one thing is clear, and that is that women who are victims of sexual crimes are, in the over whelming number of cases, not receiving justice, whilst men who are victims of false allegations are not facing legal consequences. I cannot find a single case of a man being falsely convicted of rape in the UK, and only 1 case of a man who was falsely convicted of attempted rape back in the late 90s. Maybe it's happening and we just aren't hearing about it, but for the reasons listed above I strongly doubt it. Of course the emotional trauma of these accusations should be taken seriously, but when compared to the physical and emotional trauma of the 92-98% of women who are telling the truth, most of whom are not seeing justice, it would be madness to assume that false allegations are the issue which needs addressing. In fact, with only 1.9% of rape cases being prosecuted, vs 28% of false allegations resulting in prosecution, I think we're already taking that problem quite seriously enough!

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/rape-cases-uk-prosecutions-prison-time-fall-government-review-disclosure-a8809236.html

So, (this will be my last point I promise!) why are false allegation myths so widespread and why are we so ready to assume women are lying? My answer circles us back to the #MeToo movement. According to ONS data "around 90 per cent of victims of the most serious sexual offences knew the perpetrator." And thanks to #MeToo we now know that we all know a victim. And if we know the victim and the victim knows the attacker, then there's a good chance that we know the attacker. That the attacker is our friend, our colleague, maybe even our family member. I don't know about you but that's not something I want to believe. I love my brother. My brother is a wonderful kind man. If my brother is ever accused of rape the overwhelming statistical likelihood will be that he did it, but no doubt my whole body will urge me to put him in the small percentage of men who are falsely accused. How much easier to say that the woman lied for nefarious reasons than to consider the alternative. Every sexual offender out there is the brother or friend or son of someone who want's to believe with all their heart that he didn't do it. And as women we are trained our whole lives to centre men and to support them and to put their feelings and needs before those of women. So we tell ourselves the same stories that we've been telling ourselves for centuries - that women are wicked, vindictive liars whilst men are innocent victims. Why else would we believe that a few men facing false allegations for which there are no legal consequences, whilst the majority of guilty men are prosecuted, is an unthinkable perversion of justice, whilst believing that it's worth it for thousands of rapists to walk free as long as no innocent men get their reputations damaged in the process? I'm telling you, if I could sacrifice my reputation to give those women justice I'd do it today and I'd do it a thousand times over. I understand why you want to find a way to protect both men (from false allegations) and women (from sexual assaults), but whilst the number of men affected by the former is in the hundreds and the number of women affected by the latter is in the hundreds of thousands, my feminism will continue to centre women.

If you wanted to do something shorter you could send him this and ask if he really thinks 98.1% of rapes reported last year were made up. And if he doesn't, what does he think we should do about 1) all the people who've been raped and don't get justice and 2) all the rapists who have got away with it?
Or you could just not bother arguing with the misogynistic idiot
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/rape-cases-uk-prosecutions-prison-time-fall-government-review-disclosure-a8809236.html

Well I floated a few years ago a legal aid charity that would seek civil redress for rapists found not guilty in criminal courts. I am confident that more cases would meet “on the balance of probability” than “beyond reasonable doubt”.

Wider society would have to face the fact more starkly then. It would at least change the conversation around victims.

I think that is happening dervel. I've read about a few civil cases recently.
I would find it hard if I was a victim though because I wouldn't want money (or the implication I was pursuing the case for money).

Wouldn’t the anonymity on reporting still apply? Although I get your point I wouldn’t dream of making it an expectation on victims. It’s just that I could see the perception around how we discuss it changing.

Like for example people couldn’t argue the rapist Ched Evans could be innocent just because he appealed a criminal case, if say they was a civil case against him.

I feel sorrt for her being with such a horrible partner. False allegations are proven to be rare but no one wants to believe it, this is a ajor talking point of MRAs. I find it more disturbing that on many television shows aimed at teens or other daytime dramas, the false rape accusation is more common than any discussion of real rape. Many younger people in particular seem to have television and movies confused with reality so this is at best irresponsible on the part of television and movie producers, but since most of them are men I'm tempted to believe it is deliberate - their world view which they propagate and seed people's minds with.

IAN(o longer)AL and never practised in this field but no, I don't think there'd be anonymity in civil cases unless a sympathetic judge granted it. There would be no need to seek massive damages if you didn't want to, but reasonable to ask for cover for costs of therapy, indemnity for legal costs, and some kind of order as to the defendant's future behaviour - eg stay away from a person or place. (But personally I can see the attraction of asking for massive damages to be paid into a women's legal aid fund if one exists.) Or did you mean a private prosecution? In which case the evidential burden would be the same as if the CPS brought the case. 😞

These cases are massively expensive, and the risk of losing (and paying costs) against anyone who can afford to hire a shithot lawyer is enough to put people off.

But very happy to be corrected.

Place marking to read later.

Just placemarking to keep the thread as what you wrote is brilliant.

this is at best irresponsible on the part of television and movie producers, but since most of them are men I'm tempted to believe it is deliberate - their world view which they propagate and seed people's minds with.

And men in an industry that we all know has a horrendous attitude to women and doesn't seem to care if a man even gets convicted of rape or sexual assault as long as he's 'a creative genius'.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I sat down earlier to try and right a tl;dr version just covering the stats but somehow it ended up just as long. On a second reading though I did realise I'd made a few mistakes, namely that the prosecution breakdown is not sex specific, so the 1,900 convictions were actually out of the 97,000 total rapes, not just the 85,000 rapes of women. The other bit was here:

In 2012 CPS released a report which identified 121 false reports, accounting for about 0.6% of allegations. Of these, 35 people were prosecuted for perverting the course of justice.

The report was actually saying that the 35 prosecutions made up 0.6% of allegations. The total 121 false reports made up about 2%. Not that any of that changes my argument, but just for the sake of accuracy!

If anyone's interested though, read the full reports of the "false" allegations. They go into a fair bit of detail about what "false" actually means, and also the profiles and case studies of the people who made them. For example the Home Office report actually talks about "allegations recorded as false" rather than "false allegations", and includes:

• cases where the alleged victim admitted the allegation was false (53 cases)
• cases where the alleged victim retracted their statement (28 cases)
• cases where the alleged victim did not cooperate with the investigation (3 cases)
• cases where the police judged the alleged victim to be lying. (58 cases)

The report questioned in particular the methods used by police to declare an allegation "false" which often involved the belief that a woman was not "really" raped if she agreed to go back to the man's flat. It had a testimony from a nurse who described police officers rolling their eyes and making sceptical or snide comments whilst taking a report from victims. The report concluded by warning police not to be so ready to dismiss allegations as false, and pointed to a similar study in New Zealand in which several cases dismissed as false were brought against men who went on to be convicted as serial rapists. In short, even out of this very small number of "false allegations" there's a lot of doubt that they were all actually false. The other interesting bit was the profiles of the people making the allegations. These often involved young women who were afraid of their parents finding out they'd had sex. Among those making false allegations was a women who had been made homeless by her parents after finding out she'd had sex, a woman trying to access the MAP, and a woman seeking to escape a forced marriage.

I think there's a really important conversation to be had about who is making these allegations and why. Women lying about rape to avoid forced marriages and honour violence. Women lying because they're afraid to be made homeless or ostracised for having sex. Women looking for a way out of violent relationships. Women afraid of the stigma of accessing emergency contraception. Yes there were women recorded as being motivated by jealousy and revenge etc (though "regretted it later for no obvious reason" was conspicuously not listed as a reason), but in the majority of these cases the women committing this "crime" were still very very much victims of abuse and misogyny.

And yes, her partner seemed nice at first but has very much gone down an MRA rabbit hole. I was also lectured by him on how unfair family court is and what a good job father's for justice are doing.

35 people, male and female (since the stats don't distinguish), were prosecuted in connection with a false report. That's the bottom line.

The OP asks about the methods used by the police to declare an allegation false.

They will take a statement from the victim along the lines of

'disregard what I've said in my previous statement.
I want to go home and forget the whole thing
I don't want any further police action.

I'll even say that I made the whole thing up, if you'll just stop now '

This link doesn't say anything you don't already know, although it puts the figure of false reports closer to 5%. An Unbelievable Story of Rape

(Fair warning: it's unbelievably hard to read.)

This one is an Australian academic publication researching false reports. (Also says there's a 5% rate.) Challenging Misconceptions (pdf)

I'm not sure whether it's somewhere in those two links or I saw it somewhere else, but I've seen data saying there's a pattern to false reports which is rather different from the real thing. For one, the false reports tend to be much more spectacular.

To me, it seems pretty clear that the big desire to believe that bitchez be lyin is that opening your eyes to reality means acknowledging the horrible world men make for women and, for men, acknowledging their place in it. They rather spend their lives with their fingers firmly in their ears, shouting No, No, No.

Found the other article about patterns to false charges. The truth about false rape accusations by Sandra Newman.

Goldenblue

Also harder to prosecute and prove rape because you can't consent to be stabbed or mugged but apparently you can be classed has having consents to be beaten up if sex takes place and he claims consensual s&m

The more this fabrication is repeated the more credence it seems to gather. People believe what they want to believe - cos you know Patriarchy innit.

Also harder to prosecute and prove rape because you can't consent to be stabbed or mugged but apparently you can be classed has having consents to be beaten up if sex takes place and he claims consensual s&m

This is why the conversation got called time on, because I got a bit worked up and started angrily recounting cases from wecantconsenttothis.uk and obviously that wasn't appropriate for young ears. That was my bad. But people need to know about this shit!

Thank's for those links quixote9, will have a read now. The data about false reports is surprisingly scarce - I guess it's harder to dismiss facts if their's, y'no, evidence and that. The less data there is, the easier to make up whatever you fancy.

It's like if you have two children, and one always snatches toys from the other. Everyone tells you that you should put the kid who snatches in time-out, but actually you love that kid more so you make excuses about how he's tired or that the toy was really his to start with or that you didn't see him take it. Occasionally you put him in time out, but only if he did something really dreadful and loads of other people also saw it. Then one day your other child lies and says he took her toy when he really didn't. Hurrah! She may have only done it once, but who care - you just hit the mother-load! Now you never have to worry about putting the golden child in time out ever again because you can just say your other kid is lying. It's bullshit.

This is why the conversation got called time on, because I got a bit worked up and started angrily recounting cases from wecantconsenttothis.uk

The cases on that website were murder cases not rape cases. But in any event, it seems to me that the defendants in those cases were not saying that the victims had consented to be killed - because again there is NO such defence - their defence seems to be that they had not intended to cause anyone's death and that it was an accident. From scrolling down the pages, it looks like in most of the cases the juries did not accept the defence's version of what happened and they were found guilty. The website seems to be an entire waste of time and effort.