There is absolutely no way this will be passed, or that the people who brought it think it will be passed.
It's an opposition tactic to bring more attention to this issue. There is also going to be a 'strike' in March. Campaigners are trying to ensure attention stays focussed.
The current 'process' is it's being debated by the citizens assembly- a randomly chosen group of citizens designed to be a cross section who have been meeting with experts and will report back to government. In one way it's yet another delaying tactic, but some of their questions/comments that have come out have been quite funny - there was one where they expressed concern that pro-life submissions were entirely emotional with no facts. And ultimately, there will be no getting out of taking action once it's through.
No government has wanted to have a referendum because of how divisive it is, but they're running out of options. There is no way change will be legislated for: it will go to the people. It's in the constitution (where it was added in the 80s by another referendum, btw, it's not always been there) and that's the only way to get it out.
Something I think is missed in this debate by people outside Ireland - and I think to some extent missed by the campaigners- is that there actually isn't a desire to punish sexually active women at the heart of this. At least, not by more than a tiny handful of people. Contraceptives and the morning after pill are freely available, it is entirely the norm to have children before marriage and incredibly unusual for people to marry young/without having lived together first. It's a very different situation to some of the conservative parts of the US who are also coming after contraception and teaching abstinence.
In ireland, the fact is: a large number of people really do believe life starts at conception, and need to be convinced otherwise. That is what everyone over the age of about thirty was taught in school. It's why there aren't rape and incest exemptions, the only exemption is threat to life of the mother. It's obviously horrifying, but it is internally coherent, and I think a lot of the argument is lost by ignoring the genuine concerns of people about when life starts who feel that it's a difficult choice but there is another voiceless person to be considered.
In reality, if it wasn't so easy -esp for the middle classes- to get to the UK and access abortion services, this would have changed years ago. Opinion is shifting hugely. But it will be very tight- people point to the same sex marriage referendum as a sign of progress, but it really isn't as simple as people with progressive views vs religious conservatives. There's a long way to go still.