You may have seen on the weather forecast potential for a rather nasty storm in southern England at the weekend.
It is a really difficult one to call. A low is developing in the subtropics. Lots of warm moist air in it. It is expected to move rapidly ne.
Uncertainties are:
1)Will it develop into a severe storm?
Complicated question. Models are all over the place. It depends on how it interacts with a trough It could deepen very rapidly or not at all.
2)Where will it go?
It could cross over into England or it could miss us and take a good swipe at the low countries instead.
It is particularly difficult to forecast because of where it is forming. It is (as I understand it) a fairly unusual path. Also there is quite a sparsity of data in the region that it is forming. Basically there aren't enough measurements in the area to really pinpoint exactly what it is doing.
Does look potentially at least a huge rain producer. The winds???
So when watching the forecasts for this one, bear in mind it is tricky!!!