Potential weekend storm

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You may have seen on the weather forecast potential for a rather nasty storm in southern England at the weekend.

It is a really difficult one to call. A low is developing in the subtropics. Lots of warm moist air in it. It is expected to move rapidly ne.

Uncertainties are:
1)Will it develop into a severe storm?
Complicated question. Models are all over the place. It depends on how it interacts with a trough It could deepen very rapidly or not at all.

2)Where will it go?
It could cross over into England or it could miss us and take a good swipe at the low countries instead.

It is particularly difficult to forecast because of where it is forming. It is (as I understand it) a fairly unusual path. Also there is quite a sparsity of data in the region that it is forming. Basically there aren't enough measurements in the area to really pinpoint exactly what it is doing.

Does look potentially at least a huge rain producer. The winds???

So when watching the forecasts for this one, bear in mind it is tricky!!!

Met office has severe weather warning for east of england on website this morning.

that I think is the first sign. would you like a free guess forecast?

would love one ...

Weird thing is we have the weather warning for heavy rain yet the forecast says to expect heavy snow Sunday night????

I'm another one thats fascinated by the Severn Bore

I'm in Bedfordshire by the way

We have the same forecast for sunday night. I think It is struggling to get the temperature right. It could be heavy snow I suppose but personally I'd expect the airmass to be too warm. Will have a look and see if its right at lunch time when I can look properly.

It should be a pleasant afternoon for you today hooray! Tomorrow, not quite so nice, one of those days I think where it alternates between ok and drizzly bleugh. Sunday - quite probably grim. Wet and windy, def a day for staying indoors despite being fairly mild during the day.

Will try and do a better one later

Thank you- glad to hear this afternoon will be nice- got horrible wet drizzle here at the mo.

Not good news for Sunday- we go swimming early in the morning- oh well least we'll be getting wet in the pool anyway

have had a very quick look at how gfs is handling it. Takes the low to our south just clipping the SE and although it brings warm air with it, it quickly moves off, causing problems for the low coutries with a squeeze of isobars. It takes the warm air with it, so we don't stay warm. I think thats where the transition to snow is coming in.

Weather warning for Sunday has been extended northwards now.
Are we all going to be covered by a yellow warning by then?! We're forecast for heavy snow Sunday evening though.

They've updated our warning for Sunday too, which helps to explain the snow forecast

"There is a moderate risk of severe weather developing over England and Wales on Sunday. A prolonged spell of wet and windy weather is expected, with heavy rain falling on already saturated ground. The rain may also turn to snow at times over hills."

going to have a quick look at models now. Interesting how far the warning now extends.

Its incredibly blowy and blustery already here in SE London.

here too, stuff blown all over the garden.

'Tis well windy here in Wiltshire.

So glad I've just seen this thread! BBc London forecast a mild and sunny afternoon.

It's gone very gloomy though and the wind is incredible - a for sale sign just flew past our window.

Looks potentially very threatening for Portugal and parts of Spain and France. I think life threatening conditions

For us, it is still too early, it will not still be the monster that hits Spain etc but there is going to be a lot of rain associated with it. Maybe gales as it leaves us. Snow on the northern edge of it does look likely.

I am having to rely somewhat on weather forum discussions with this one because of the variety of solutions the models are throwing up. There seems to be be more talk about the potential of severe gales in the south east now. Seems that France has the greater risk though.
some mutterings of Oct 87 because of where the storm has come from and some similarities but its not to say that it will be another similar event.

A day old but an interesting video description of a little on how the storm has been formed.

flooding report

I am actually really though about some of the media reporting. I can very much understand the interest and reports particularly as it is potentially going to be very damaging in parts of Spain and France.

But, parts of Scotland have had feet of snow with extensive powercuts, the a9 being closed in lots of places and reports of that have been largely confined to regional news. We had more coverage when Washington DC was under snow! So odd!

Am going to have a look at the models but flood watches are worth looking at, particularly if you live in southern areas.

click on storm for discussion on convective nature of the storm.

models are firming up now so we can be more confident of how this will evolve.

It seems that wind wise it will be northern france and into Belgium and Holland that will see the severe and potentially very damaging winds tomorrow.

For us the primary risk, particularly in the south with be the rainfall with perhaps 40mm (or even more?). Unfortunately, combined with the high spring tides this could cause a real flooding issue on southern coastal area. There are rumours of the Thames barrier being raised for tomorrow. In general with saturated ground the rain will be a big issue. Winds will be strong - gale force, but the possibility of a sting jet cannot be ruled out.

This storm will still need watching closely, if the predicted path is wrong by 100-200 miles then it puts the south in the firing line of the worst winds.

meteo france have 'orange warnings' out
here with coastal gusts of up to 140km/hr locally higher. Poor France!

back at lunch to update.

updated warnings for heavy rain up perhaps up to 50mm in some spots.

We already have widespread surface flooding with at least one local road near to impassable. Going to check that drains are clear after lunch.

Heavy, perhaps torrential rain still seems to be the main feature for the south of England, with the severe gales/storm force winds over France and Belgium. Still worth keeping an eye on the track though.