Weather over the next week

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok, have had a quick look. Today is bringing the expected heavy rain to many with surface flooding expected/occuring

Tomorrow looks like a fine day

Then looking a little further ahead, I'm very interested in wednesday, particularly for central and perhaps northern areas. Although the met office has rain down for then (apart from a bit of snow in Eastern Scotland) I think at the moment it could potentially become a rain turning into snow event. Colder air comes in for a time and with heavy precipitation, I think it may turn to snow.

One to keep an eye on. I will update as things go on.

geordie and Invisible - the metoffice actually have that region down for a heavy rain advisory for thursday. I think it is something to keep an eye on as we go through the week but I can't give you any definitive answers I'm afraid, I think it looks (to my amateur eyes) a situation that is pretty close to snow.

Thanks OYBBK.

Ok, looking at the situation, it seems to me to be a ridiculously impossible thing to predict where snow will fall tonight and tomorrow. Perhaps my view yesterday morning was a little on the negative side. It is just so very very marginal.

All those in the watch area should certainly keep an eye out. Particularly Welsh hills, Cotswolds, I think that region is at particular risk for reasonable accumulation.

This is a rain turning to snow situation, so please be aware that just because it is raining to start with, it doesnt make you immune to it turning to snow later, particularly when rain is heavy and prolonged.

Some of the models are forecasting reasonable amounts across CS England and perhaps touching the London area.

It is a case as I've said before, prepare for snow, but don't necessarily expect it.

Looking ahead to thursday/friday. Heavy Rain sweeps across the uk form the West. Met office have an advisory for heavy snow Looks quite snowy in a good part of Scotland on thursday. I think that perhaps those in the North should be just a little aware that they may be affected by snow too.

I want snow in Liverpool. The weather warnings have changed to chance of heavy snow in cheshire but not liverpool and then what joy heavy rain in Liverpool on Thursday.

and notice i'm still wearing my bloody Christmas jumper in the hope of more snow!

LeDodgy, I'll keep my fingers crossed for Thursday for you then. If its any consolation, I think that the snow that may fall further south will be primarily the wet heavy not so fun type.

bugger though!!!! just spotted my link above. I should have typed 'Heavy rain' not 'Heavy snow' Sorry all!!!!!!! (doh!)

Hi Kitten. Do you think there is any significance in the fact that the met office still have only an advisory for the weather warning, rather than an early warning? Is it, as you say, because it's so difficult to tell where it will actually snow?

I see that the local reports on the met office and BBC for my area (N oxon/warwks) have actually been downgraded from heavy snow to sleet...

I think so Fatsatsuma. Advisories are issued when confidence is moderate that severe weather will take place. (between 40-60%) (or when confidence is low that an extreme event will take place) Early warnings are when there is a high risk of an event.

met office warning system

severe weather definitions is worth looking at. The met office define heavy snow as "Snow falling at a rate of 2 cm/hour or more expected for at least two hours.

As we know, light snow over a few hours overnight would add up quite well and cause travel disruption despite not necc falling under the met office criteria. As would a rate of 5cm/hour falling for 90 minutes (as an example) So met office warnings, while a good indicator don't always reflect the effect the weather has on people.

updated advisories for tomorrow

ok, have had a quick look. It is still on the edge for those in the risk area. I'm afraid it is one of those situations where you don't know whether it will snow until it is snowing. Snowiest scenario I think would be a few cm (perhaps more on hills) of heavy wet snow, wettest scenario would be obv heavy rain. I expect many in the area will get a mix! I still think that the Cotswolds will be an particular area to watch.

of course any spare grit that anywhere possibly might have is not going to be terribly helpful in this situation, so allow plenty of time to travel, especially tomorrow afternoon. Take the usual blanket, food, shovel, walking boots, charged up phone just in case.

bump

Thanks OYBBK

You are welcome

I'm not going to be around much today but I would be interested in snow reports. Currently here we have heavy rain. I don't think we will get much more than a couple of cm of yucky stuff but the met office have heavy snow warnings for Oxfordshire, parts of the W. Midlands, Wales, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire.

ok, quick proper look at what is going on....

ok, it does look interesting. I think in the south of the area we really are going to hope for evaporative cooling to bring air temps down.

Further north, I think somewhat of a mix, but of course elevation will make a difference, so be more aware if you live at higher levels.

interesting to look at on the computer, not so interesting to go out in it. ugh. (heavy rain 2.2C yuk)

Dh's school is closed( Cheltenham) due to the snow, we are in Swindon and it is just heavy rain here at the moment.

hmmm, was planning a trip to W Berks today, not essential so think I might give it a miss. The rainfall radar looks quite impressive

Thats interesting Wilts, Swindon is in the warning area, I guess it just depends if it does turn and how much. At the moment I think much of hevy snow would just dissolve or float away!

sowhat - it does look quite a decent radar. not sure how much to expect in W. Berks. I'm guessing maybe a couple of cm of slush but I could be wrong

looking at forums, parts of Oxfordshire, Shropshire and Gloucestershire have turned to snow already.

Ooh just looked at the rainfall on invent and slough is bright pink . Never seen such a bright colourful map before (guess it's not so bright if you're there)

Totally hideous, mixture of sleet and wet snow here. Will it lay, thats is the question....

I see that other parts have fared fairly 'well' would be interested in reports!

A friend in Swindon says they have been having snow but very wet. She says its like slush puppies falling from the sky

Steady wet snow in W. Surrey, beginning to settle on grass, but not on paths.

Snow lasting on car for 10 secs, then melting.

We're having a 'meh' day here (Leicester), just like yesterday- I don't think it's got properly light all day. The local TV news said we might possibly get some snow showers later on.
I'd just like some sunshine, I'm fed up with all the dullness and want to get out into the garden.

lol at slushpuppies. sounds quite messy!

thanks Polly

am fed up with it too Petunia. Seems to be permanently dank and gloomy.