Weather warnings for much of Scotland 7 Oct

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-10-07

The met office warn of widespread totals 50-75mm with some higher ground seeing as much as 150mm by the end of the weekend.

UKV, a short term, high resolution model shows many areas reaching around 80mm. A very wet weekend to come. Not a good weekend for hill walking in much of Scotland.

Stayed in house for 40 plus years, first time ever had massive flood out back. Yesterday was biblical in Central region.

It's been dry now for several hours, some faint drizzle now.
First reports on the local FB sites of people who actually made it to their destinations.

DH wants us to make a second attempt to get to our holiday destination tomorrow.
Argyll to Achnasheen area.
What do you all think?

From where in Argyll @TheShellBeach

Now we have lightning.

Much better today in central belt but yesterday was a truly astounding amount of water! Several burns burst their banks, roads turned into running rivers. The bottom of our road was impassable for much of the day but fortunately we're enough up the slope not to have been affected. The garden is a total swamp but very aware it could be much worse!

Tarbert

We got 35 miles from home before being turned back by the police, yesterday.
It just seems silly to take risks like this and we're both nearly 70 and disabled

So the plan was to go via Dalmally over Glencoe to Ft Wm. Then on to Torridon.
My heart is sinking at the very thought.

At the moment, it seems Dalmally, Tyndrum, through Glencoe is ok, several people reporting they went that way and were ok. I don't know further North.

Thanks@Igneococcus

I'm still wondering if we should just stay at home.

My long awaited trip to London was trashed as all trains cancelled. Lost out on accommodation costs for short notice cancellation and one of my train tickets is apparently non refundable too! An expensive weekend doing sweet FA

Gutting

I was able to cancel next weeks holiday - work are accommodating!

Gutting was to witch // that was confusing I think

Lot of water in the Dee at Braemar heading down towards Ballater, breaching bank in places. Have seen a video of Ballater caravan park (at around 3pm) which showed flooding there. Looking on the bright side, not as bad as in December 2015.

https://scottishfloodforecast.sepa.org.uk/public?d=2023-10-08-1452

SEPA are issuing danger to life flood warnings.

Some record high river levels for gauges upstream, on the Forth and the Spey. What struck me was that the previous record levels seemed to in winter and likely to have been a combination of rain and snow melt
Edinburgh has been wet, 50ml over 36 hours, but nothing compared to further West and North.

Snow can sublimate - ie go straight from solid ice to gaseous state (water vapour). Hence so-called "melting" snow doesn't cause so much of a problem. Some of it does turn to water, though.

Can you confirm @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

In December 2015, storm Frank had rainfall, I remember getting rather wet. Near where I was, it was 95.6mm in 15 hours (source: Scottish Flood Forecasting Service - Storm Frank - Short Range Forecast Performance). There had been significant snowfall beforehand, low level snow had melted 28-29th Dec, high mountains would have still had a lot of snow. Something happened to cause a lot of water to enter the rivers in a short period of time, causing river levels to rise rapidly from around 4am to midday. Polhollick, Dee (Grampian) recorded 3.3m at 11:45am 30-12-15 before it went offline. Looking at latest data (20:00 08-Oct-23) it is 2.03m, it has been over 2.25m earlier today. Yesterday the river rose from around 0.6m to 2m, so there is the big increase but not the sudden surge that was added in Dec 2015. The record being set of 3.3m I would assume was caused by snow in the higher mountains becoming liquid over a short period of time. The force of that snowy water destroyed bridges, roads and flooded property which would not usually flood.

That seems to make sense, @nannynick

@TheShellBeach
I kept an eye on the local FB sites and there are no reports of problems on the roads currently (other than the Ardfern landslides, they will take weeks to sort out, and some small roads like Western side of Loch Awe), people are reporting getting through to Glasgow and Fort William, and through Glencoe, and also to the East coast, via Killin and Stirling.
I don't know about further North than FW, I'll ask my colleague once she's at work, her family lives in FW.

Thanks!
We've actually almost made it to Torridon.
The journey was fine.