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Original poster

Snow...is it a coming OYBBK?

58 replies

Sallycinnamum · 30/11/2014 17:15

My Facebook news feed had a post from Metcheck saying there is a possibility of snow around christmas week. They were at pains to say it was a long range forecast but I had a lurk on a few weather forums and there does seem to be a general feeling that we could have a cold snap at the end of December, particularly in the south.

Of course I have to ask you OYBBK as you are the weather oracle after all. So, what after the chances of snow towards the end of December?

OP posts:
OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 07:54

I thought I'd be nice and copy what I wrote in the other thread, so if you are following both and have deja vu you know why. Grin

It is very marginal on friday around Welsh hills. Nevertheless, on higher ground I think there still could be some snow. Another area to watch out for is around the higher ground of the Pennines. Some of those high level passes could become tricky for a while.

Now its early days, but according to the gfs model, mid to late next week could see some significant snow up in Scotland - the further north and away from coasts you are, the more likely it is to be snow as opposed sleet. GFS shows that risk moving further south next friday to encompass northern England.

After that gfs goes on a rapid warm up. Wouldnt take that as gospel. It's also one model, I'll have a look at the ensembles this afternoon if I can. If not, this evening. (if I dont, poke pins in me til I do)

grumpyoldgitagain · 02/12/2014 08:27

Keeping fingers crossed, love snow better start looking for the sledges now might have actually found them by the time we get some

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 11:36

Got early release for good behaviour so I can have a proper look.

First of all my disclaimer - I'm an amateur and I do get things wrong. Please use the met office for official forecasts, especially when it comes to planning. Please don't rely on my forecasts and certainly dont make safety decisions on them.

Ok, heres where things look potentially at this point..

Friday - It looks more showery in nature than before, but these showers could fall as snow across parts of hilly Wales and across the Pennines, especially as we move towards evening.

Sunday - risk of some snow showers across the highlands but possibly more widespread across scottish hills.

Wednesday 10th - just possibly the first significant snow of the season. Looks fairly likely (well as far as it can do this far ahead....) across hilly areas of northern England and scotland. GFS at this snap shot perhaps brings it even further south into the midlands. It actually looks rather stormy though and could be pretty nasty wind wise across the north. A day to keep an eye on.

At the moment we have to look to our north for wintery weather - Europe still isnt very cold. But I think we now do have potential.

grumpyoldgitagain · 02/12/2014 12:15

No disclaimer needed OYBBK

I have found over the years amateurs tend to be better than the experts

Now I just need to nip over to Arbtalk and compare your amateur forecast to that of Peckerwoo

If you both agree then it must be right, if not we will have to wait and see

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 12:49

I've never heard of Arbtalk!

I have to be honest. After I wrote my forecast I checked out a couple of weather forums. They dont really seem to be saying the same as me Grin

Original poster
Sallycinnamum · 02/12/2014 13:54

OYYBK, when you say we do have potential, do you mean potential for snow (has straws, will clutch).....

OP posts:
grumpyoldgitagain · 02/12/2014 14:18

Arbtalk is a tree surgery forum OYBBK so probably not surprising that you haven't heard of it

The weather gets discussed a lot over there as it is a job affected by the weather, either from a getting cold and wet point or being on standby for call outs in bad winds to clear fallen trees.

Don't allow swearing over there though and bans are quite common if things get heated, this place is much more fun Grin

GloriaSmud · 02/12/2014 14:40

I've just had a look at Arbtalk ~ who knew there was so much to consider when it comes to looking after trees!

GFS chart for the middle of next week looks 'interesting' ~ will be watching to see how that one develops.

ouryve · 02/12/2014 14:46

I bought a sledge last year after 3 winters out of 4 of the knee deep stuff. It's never going to snow ever again.

ouryve · 02/12/2014 14:51

Good grief. I've got a week to persuade DS2 that coats don't suck, then. I ended up putting a second sweatshirt on him, this morning (ASD and won't let me near him with anything even remotely coat like. He's not even a geordie, ffs!)

Degustibusnonestdisputandem · 02/12/2014 15:45

I got a North Face Arctic parka at long last, this year. It'll never snow again! Wink

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 16:14

Yes Sally :) and I see that there are mutterings beginnings in other forums this afternoon about the latest gfs. Exciting!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 16:18

All being well I will start my christmas snow watch thread tomorrow evening when the 19th comes into the GFS range. I figured that people will be starting to think about their christmas travel plans and although the forecast will change daily its quite nice to do a bit of speculating about it.

Original poster
Sallycinnamum · 02/12/2014 17:43

I look forward to seeing your festive forecast oybbk.

OP posts:
OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 18:52

It has more potential for last year. :)

Wednesdays storm is still there this evening. ECMWF doesnt have t cold enough to snow - but brings in very strong winds. GFS brings in -5C 850hpa line across the Midlands introducing the possibility of snow to the northern half. However if conditions are right its possible there may be snow else where.

Lets see what tomorrows runs bring.

PestoStormissimos · 02/12/2014 19:05

Thanks for doing this Kitten, just love the anticipation of snow ??????

Muchtoomuchtodo · 02/12/2014 19:58

Oh I love these threads!

We're not planning on going far over Christmas, but I have just increased my hours at work so I could do with any snow that does fall to be on a Friday night and thawed by Monday morning. You can organise that OYBBK can't you?! Wink

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 20:14

Of course I can, just in your town mind. In mine we are having feet of the stuff.

grumpyoldgitagain · 02/12/2014 20:51

I'm hoping you are near me because a couple of feet of snow here would be brilliant, just the excuse I need to get the Landrover out to go and play

GloriaSmud · 02/12/2014 21:38

That storm on Wednesday has some interesting colours about it. Do you think some wind warnings for western coasts might come along if it develops the way the charts (if I've read them right!) are showing?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 02/12/2014 22:05

I think so Gloria, but I think they will be more widespread than that. We might need to start a separate storm thread in a couple of days.

Hopingforpeace · 02/12/2014 22:23

It smell like snow here tonight. I'm about 50 miles from the Cairngorms. No snow yet but wouldn't be surprised to see it.

BlackeyedSusan · 02/12/2014 23:56

it was the end of november before I could force ds into a coat every day and a sweatshirt. bribery worked. he got extra computer time for wearing a sweatshirt to school. (also ASD0

BlackeyedSusan · 02/12/2014 23:59

dances about in excitement...

snow threads, christmas threads... Xmas Grin

storm threads not so much Xmas Sad

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/12/2014 07:52

Friday has lost much of its interest but still parts of Wales could see some snow showers, esp in the evening.

Sunday into Monday. At present looks to bring in a mix of snow and rain showers into Scotland.

Wednesday still looks interesting. Not so stormy but the -5c 850hpa line covers the uk. Any showers over higher ground would be snow in this scenario, though marginal in the south.