Lots of rain warnings

[OhYoubadbadKitten]

Including amber for part of the south.

thats not very helpful of them Sparkling!

Very briefly as I need to leave early this morning. UKMO has what to me looks like slightly worrying developments for tomorrow nights storm. It really develops it quite quickly and although the worst of the winds look to be perhaps towards northern France, thats only at a quick glance of my inexpert eyes. The low travels from the SW across southern England and out through the Wash. lots of rain and wind if this comes off.

GFS hardly develops the storm!

Other models are mixed too. So, still no clear answers!

met office warnings covering all of England and Wales, watch out for refinement and perhaps some ambers going up later.

back this evening. Have a good day!

Well, from a lovely clear sky it is now hailing, dark and even the pre teen is acquiescing to wearing his coat .

lostinwales pre-teens wearing coats is a most worrying sign!!!

OYBBK can I ask how you learnt all this amazing stuff? You're so good at this. Did you do a course or are you self-taught? I lurk on your threads all the time!

In southern Hampshire we've got mackeral-ish looking cloud as well, moving east to west, so presumably I'm seeing now what you saw earlier on, RumBaaBaa. Yes, please, update us when the next system comes along.

Apparently we got 19mm of rain overnight. No trees down as far as I know, but that was probably because most of the leaves had already dropped.

The Met Office surface pressure charts are useful to look at, to get some idea of upcoming weather systems. I prefer the old version:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html
because I find that easier to interpret than the new version:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/.

Sun, blue sky and sun

Been out and haven't had to turn back or splash through floods. A few wet edges and a broken drain, but generally bliss after the last two nights.

Rain again Sat-Sun and standing water in the fields and high river levels, so I'm not expecting it to remain pleasant.

DD2 has taken her proper raincoat
It must have been wet.

Hi Zumerzetzider. Sorry to only have just seen your message. Yes I'm near the weir, but hopefully far enough and high enough that we'll be OK. I went out on Staplegrove Rd last night clearing leaves from the drains as the bow waves were ridiculous. Then the flood cleared in no time. Longrun Meadow was pretty interesting this morning.

Beautiful day here in the north west. Three days of yellow weather warnings to follow though.

We're moving to Sussex a week on Monday. I really hope it's going to be drier than here!!

rumbaa, that will be superb!

amber warnings out I'm afraid for tomorrows rain wind warnings for some too over Sat night. I'll have a look at the models properly in a bit to see if they are converging on a solution.

Helena - a bit of a mixture I've done the basic OU 'understanding the weather course' highly recommended! and MetEd have a fab collection of courses (though they use US weather for all the examples]]. I go to lectures too and lurk around weather forums

There is still modelling difference with tomorrow nights storm with UKMO taking the storm further north and deeper than GFS. I think at this range I would go with the UKMO model and prepare!

In any case, a lot more rain to come I'm afraid and with it arriving on saturated ground further flooding is highly likely. If UKMO is correct then the South East corner could also expect some disruption due to falling trees.

I walked the dog on longrun this morning mateysmum he had a whale of a time, I got soggy cold feet as the water went over the top of my wellys!

NAE model is still developing the low and shows significant gales in the early hours of Sunday for the SE and perhaps East Anglia too.

Oh no :( my mum is heading to us from London tomorrow and back home Sunday , I really hope it's not going to be as bad as they're forecasting.

OYBBK, if the forecasters knew how much rain was going to fall yesterday on west Wales do you think they would have issued us an amber warning instead? I'm trying to decide between taking the boys to cycle club up the coast and staying safe and defending my house against more floods.

I didn't realise OU did a weather course as well. At this rate I've got about the next decades study sorted out

I am going to Reclaim the Night in London tomorrow evening - lots of marching, singing, etc. London had a yellow warning for tomorrow earlier, but is now out of the zone - will it still be seriously wet, though, do you think?

Lost, yes, I think that the rain you received more than warranted an amber warning.

Mooncup, yes, it will be seriously wet!

Thanks OYBBK - I will take my hip flask!

Christmas lights switch in in our town tomorrow. It will be a washout by the looks of it. The pub that got flooded last time was due to reopen tonight but has put a message on their website 'Closed until Further Notice'. How crap.

Longleat. Lovely today thankyou :-)

That's great giraffe :)

Sparkling - those poor pub owners :(

I know OYBBK they were taking bookings for Christmas and everything. Lovely little country pub in the middle of nowhere. The owners must be beside themselves.

Oh I hope the rail networks are not affected on Sunday, DH leaves for a very important meeting