Warnings for the se - flash flooding possible mon 11th.

[Ohyoubadbadkitten]

Thought I ought to start a new thread. I know the situation in the west of Wales is pretty dire ( massive understatement) but a bit of a situation could develop in the se tomorrow. Not to the same level, the geography is rather different but nevertheless.

Models are differing hugely, so there is a lot of uncertainty. However the nae, which looks at mid sized features has perhaps 50-100mm showing. showing here a 6 hour total of 50 mm around the Sussex area.

Gfs, a coarser model shows less rain but moving further north.

I guess the only advice I can give is to keep an eye on the environment agency's flood page if you live in a flood prone area And the met office warnings page

Just to add, the nae is also showing 70mm of rain for London tomorrow. If this were to come off it could be pretty serious. Be prepared for disruption.

You are welcome. I hope it doesn't come off.

Traveling back to north Hampshire tomoz am so hope trains can run correctly until then

Cant find weather warnings for london? the grandparents are taking DS out for the day- worried now!

BBC weather says : Further rain or showers, some heavy and thundery, most likely in the north and west at first but developing more widely during the afternoon. Some bright spells but generally cloudy.

Do you need to refresh the page or something lordflashheart? They are def there on the link I posted.
I would go with the met office rather than the bbc for this sort of thing ( bbc gets its forecast from the met office, but the interpretations don't always reflect what the met office say - no idea why) heaviest rain in the early hours through morning rush hour I think.

Funky, Hampshire may be a bit too far west and escape the worst of it. But already the models are going adrift, with heavier rain in the sw than predicted. Hampshire at the moment seems to be in a drier slot in the middle of it all!

London is just out of the severe weather warning zone at the moment... but I see that netweather forecasts torrential rain from 10 pm tonight to 7 am tomorrow. So much of the capital is concreted over that heavy rain really puts a strain on the drains and I've seen several overflowing recently.

Well, at least we'll find out whether my attempts to fix the leaks in the conservatory roof have worked!

And funnily enough, the precip forecast I looked at moves the heaviest rain first over London, then west over Hampshire by the afternoon!

Be prepared is a good motto I think.

Mooncup, have you a link for that severe weather warning? Just not tallying with my met office page at all and London should absolutely be in it!

London and se warnings

Ahhh, are you looking at today's warnings rather than tomorrow's?

Ah, maybe I was!

Don't worry :)
What time is your ds going into London?

Picking him up in 'the morning' so ten-ish. Back for 3-4pm I expect.

Ok, so you should have a good feel for how it has panned out during the early morning. Hopefully the rest of the day should be fairly predictable by then. Will try to update thoughts before work tomorrow.

Thanks OYBBK- its ok I'll be checking met office! Thanks for your thoughts though- if he goew out it will be in rain gear!

Cool, perhaps water wings too

According to the NBC news the warning has changed to amber. However that isn't showing on the met office maps yet.

nbc. doh! bbc.
amber warnings

looking at the radar, the worst of it is through the far se with Hampshire and further north (curling east) now taking the worst of it. However, some models are still not showing this!)

back in a mo!

good radar link
look at it rotate about Surrey/hampshire.

So in conclusion, it shows how much the models struggled. It is often the case with trying to predict areas of most intense rainfall and I think we have high expectations of accuracy in this country!

my total for the storm so far - 22mm. Raining heavily.

reality - can you tune into local radio to get an idea of any local floods? some parts of sussex seem to have had 60mm+ - a very significant amount.

Well I have to travel from South Hants to Kent by train this afternoon so fingers crossed the trains aren't disrupted too much and London isn't too wet and busy