Oxford uni (and just unis in general)

[law4569]

Hi all!

Just wanted some advice. My daughter is applying for spanish + beginners German and wants to do a law conversion after. She's decided she wants to apply to Oxford, Edinburgh, ucl, durham and bristol or warwick. I wanted to know people's experiences with these unis as durham and Edinburgh are very far from where we live + warwick we're unsure if it's good for her degree. For anyone whose children went to Oxford, did they do well at gcse? She got 999888777 but she's worried because of the context of her skl (she did okay) then she'll be disadvantaged. if anyone has any sort of experience on any of this id appreciate it :)

"if you understand stats she will have less chance than someone with all 9’s"

I'm a bad statistician but I'm guessing that the tables are aggregates, mask a lot of variation, and that we shouldn't make inference as to how an individual will do based on the overall breakdowns (ecological fallacy).

The associations suggested by the table aren't deterministic: they don't mean that if you have a particular grade profile you are bound to be more or less successful.

In fact the best predictor of academic outcome is actually prior academic performance, so it would be extraordinary if admission tutors didn't pay a great deal of attention to GCSE's given that they are the only indicator of academic performance that they have (unless applicants have A levels in hand). There is a lot of talk about passion and enthusiasm being as important as exams but I think they only play a very small part in interviews and offers being given.

And please don't tell me that results aren't everything, I'm sure at Oxford they really are.

The standard Oxford offer for lots of courses is AAA. In practice, most successful applicants get better grades than this. AAA isn't what they expect people who've accepted offers to get. It might be a way of trying to reduce pressure on people who are often a bit too keen to push themselves a bit too hard.

If you go on What Do They Know and have a search, it's very easy to look at the GCSE grade profile for appplicants who got interviews and offers. Astoundingly, the higher the grades at GCSE, the higher the percentage who got an interview and then an offer.

Nobody with any set of results is guaranteed to be successful. But those with better grades at GCSE are more likely to be successful in gaining an offer than those with worse grades.

As the daughter in this thread has slightly worse grades than average for Oxford and also attended a private school (so may be judged more stringently), she'd be well-advised to take a gap year and apply with grades in hand, since she is predicted a string of top grades for her A Levels.

She doesn't have entrance exams but surely an interview can show progression? I think I read on their websites they care about that a lot as well.

This simply isn’t true. If you’re applying for (as an example), a classics degree - and you have broadly very good GCSEs, you submit brilliant written work (if required), have great A-level predictions, and dazzle at interview - an admissions tutor won’t be saying ‘this candidate got a 7 in gcse chemistry, that’s just not good enough.’

In that respect, results aren’t ’everything’. They are part of an equation. And beyond that, there might even be factors beyond anyone’s control - eg if a course that enrols 20 people already has (for example), 12 boys from private school selected, and there’s a choice between two equally ‘good’ candidates for place 13, and one is a boy from a private school and one is a girl from state, an admissions tutor might well opt for latter for balance.

You do seem to be slightly fixating on one thing, OP - and the answer won’t change even if you ask 900 times. All your dd can do is give it a shot and hope for the best.

Read @Alouest's post above. Most people who get interviewed will not have broadly good GCSE's, they will all have top GCSE's. They will all submit excellent written work, and will mostly shine at interview. Having great A level predictions doesn't mean much, 75% of students don't achieve their predicted grade. The admission tutor has the difficult task of picking the best from an impressive group, and the 7 for chemistry won't help.

Balancing groups is a bit of a red herring, if colleges have too many boys or girls or students from one type of school there is horse trading goes on at interview and students can be offered places in colleges other than the one they applied for.

You are statistically more likely to be successful.

Where did you get the numbers that 1200 get all 9’s?
How many 9’s

@Scotiasdarling - but it’s the ‘GCSE results are everything’ that I’m flagging. It’s part of an equation. And while predictions are taken with a pinch of salt I’m sure, from schools that tend to get top A-level results/large numbers into Oxbridge, they also matter.

My DC is at Cambs - one of a few from their school. Several mates at Oxford too. All of them got very good GCSE’s, but there a few with a couple of 7s in the mix too. I also know a few that had 10x9s at GCSE’s and 4 A* predictions and didn’t get in.

OP should stop fixating and her dd should give it a go - if she wants to!

@startagainagainagainFrom the governments statistics on GCSE pages. I attach the data for 2024 for England.

That doesn't include iGCSEs which many private schools take though.

The government table does not mean anything, not even for state schools. If you took 14 GCSEs but got 10x9 you are still better than someone who did 7 GCSEs only and got all 9s (assuming school demographics similar). Because you got 3 extra 9s.

The most important thing for the OPs DD is that she is exceptional at languages. Oxford’s main focus is and always will be that they are exceptional in the subject they are applying for to study there. It trumps everything else.

I think Oxford only takes into account the top 8 results so as not to disadvantage those who went to schools where only 8 were on offer. But still, those with more than 8 top results get more offers per head than those with fewer.

@newtree I’m not sure so many take iGcses now at independent schools since the new 1-9 grades came in. Anyway 70% at Oxford are state dc so 70% of 3500 (2400) have not got all grade 9s. Ditto at Cambridge, Imperial, Durham and LSE.

The vast majority of the more selective independent schools (so the ones that get 80%+ grade 9s) take IGCSEs rather than GCSEs. These are also marked from 1-9. About half of the independent schools in the UK take GCSEs rather than IGCSEs and they are more often those which have fewer high ability students (so not getting strings of 9s).

While not everyone at Oxford or Cambridge will have all grade 9s, a significant number will have all 9s and 8s, especially in their top 8 subjects which are the ones that matter in these circumstances. Oxford treats 9s and 8s the same for the purposes of admissions, and only looks at the best 8 results initially when selecting for interview.

The DD in this instance has six 8 or 9 grades and in addition went to a private school when she took them, which may mean they are looking for more than 6 top grades depending on the grade profile of the school she attended. Some of her 7s are in subjects adjacent to what she wants to study. She'd be well advised to concentrate on her A Levels, get three A*s and apply with grades in hand.

@Alouest Yes. I made all your points further upthread. I’m felt alone in saying the grade 7s were an issue to due to the subjects. The dd here isn’t just competing against independent dc of course and I think she should get an interview because 94% do for MFLs. The issue is interview and tests. GCSEs are part of the picture but the performance at interview and how she articulates ideas and engages with the interview will mean more. One of the 7s at GCSE is now predicted A star for A level so not sure if the GCSE was a rogue result.

I have just looked at the Wycombe Abbey academic review. It’s around a 50/50 split between igcses and GCSEs. The report references which is on offer. It’s by no means 100% igcses and I would have expected most academic schools to be making similar choices.

We have no indication from OP concerning whether the death of DD’s father is a mitigating circumstance and, if so, whether DD wishes to ask her referee to mention this. (She could provide documentation herself, but normally the information should come from the referee and secondarily if at all from the applicant).

If the timings fit reasonably, a parent’s death is a profound mitigating circ and disclosure is in the best interests of all parties.

I agree the interview would then carry extra weight. The MLAT is being discontinued, which may be too bad for candidates with relatively low GCSEs.

Cases like this one make the overall unreliability of predicted grades especially frustrating. If DD’s school has a good reputation for accuracy then DD’s will help; a poor reputation for accuracy following these GCSEs would be a problem in that DD’s PGs may not be taken as seriously. No one on MumsNet can assess this.

I wish schools would take to heart the fact that inflating PGs does not ultimately win their pupils places. It is too bad that the kudos come with the offers, rather than waiting until those offers are met, or not. Is this to do with HMG metrics?

OP, what is the grade profile at your DD's school? How selective a grammar is it?

For instance, if 80% of GCSE attained are grade 8/9, she would be expected not only to be in that cohort, but to have exceeded it.

They want evidence that the student is exceptional in their educational context.

Yes, stats will show that someone may get in with a few 7s and 8s, but these would be those in care, from very underperforming schools or some major mitigating circumstances.

Also, students with less than stellar GCSE results can always apply post A-level. If she gets 4 A stars at A-level, this will be a more relevant 'evidence of attainment' than GCSEs.

However, I would say only reapply with A-levels in hand if they are all A stars because the majority actually at the uni will have those grades achieved.

OP said her DD was at private school when she took those GCSE’s and they weren’t in the top end of that private school

OP has dangled the possibility of major mitigating circumstances but not confirmed them

DS went to Bristol. Just graduated, he did a STEM subject, and really enjoyed the course and city. Quite a lot of mental health support (if you need it ) at the uni. He had all A* at A level and 7-9 at gcse ( except one 6 in Spanish 😂 which he hated).
They def need to visit in the first instance.