Eurovision 2018: The year of clothes-with-a-train and interpretive dance

[OublietteBravo]

The first thread is almost full, so here is a new one.

Good! Denmark

Current betting (In order with fav first)

1. Cyprus: Fiery gold foil trousers.
2. Israel: Chicken Pikachu Mofo
3. Lithuania: Diana Vickers Yodelling Tori Amos
4. France: Mercy Full Shoulderpads
5. Sweden: Justin Trousersnake
6. Norway: Greedy Violining Reprise
7. Germany: Factory Issue Ed Sheeran Clone
8. Italy: Talking Mad inventor
9. Ireland: ‘Nice’ Irish Boy with a Guitar
10. Czech Republic: Camel Trumpet Cappuccino
11. Estonia: Operatic Dress
12. Bulgaria: Sia Man Bun Fisherman Jumpers
13. Denmark: Viking Invaders
14. Hungary: Hangry Barefooted Roooooockkkkkkkkkk!!!!
15. Moldova: Celebrity Squares meets Cruise Cabaret for the Politburo in the Caspian Sea circa 1957
16. Australia: Short Long Asymmetric Metallic Meh
17. Finland: Monstrous Knife Throwing
18. Spain: We Love Each Other So Much Vomit
19. Austria: Plastic Jumper Landing Platform
20. Ukraine: Teen Angst Adam’s Family Extra
21. Netherlands: Yeehaw Leopard Printed Halfprice Bon Jovi
22. Portugal: Pink Haired Duet
23. Slovenia: Strode Lighting Earache
24. Serbia: Albert Einstein Balkan Ballad
25. Albania: Dental Zeppelin
26. UK: Official Anthem of Brexit Haters

So your ballads are: Lithuania, Germany, Ireland, Spain & Portugal

Your crazy / quirky options are: Israel, Czech Rep, Denmark, Hungary & Moldova

Your Ethnic Outsider / Intellectual / Classical options are:
Serbia, Italy & Estonia

Which leaves everything else as pretty upbeat, fairly conventional pop / rock of some description.

I wouldn't bet against Ireland now tbh. Its strong against those other ballards.

Denmark wins the quirky option. I think Israel will under perform - too annoying and just got too political this week.

Intellectual never wins.

In the upbeat pop, Swedish seems a good bet. And with Cyprus the booking fav, its going to do well. Think France could be a dark horse. If there were not so many upbeat tunes the UK might be ok. But its a crowded field.

Ireland, Lithuania, Denmark, Israel, Sweden, France and Cyprus will all do well I suspect. But we'll see how the performances go down on Sat.

Very good red [Applauds]

My favourites are Sweden, Czech rep, Austria and Ukraine so you can discount those now as I have jinxed them.
Politically Germany and UK have been screwed the last couple of years. It will be interesting how they fare.
So fuck it, I am officially behind Moldova amazed they got through

Yeehah - Serbia, Denmark and Moldova!

Can't believe Greece didn't make it the other night though..

The more I listen to it the more I love Portugal this year. This means Portugal will revert to coming last for another forty years..

I would say Sweden will do well. Also Netherlands, though country music sets my teeth on edge.

I think after a big splashy start Israel will fade.

Oooh, under the 40% rule I'd predict Spain or -gulp-Ireland! If it's being banned in some countries that will only add to its appeal.

Personal faves the Dutch guns'n' roses ( guns n tulips?) and the Game of Danes. Also love the Cyprus gold foil Beyoncé and austrias gospel Caesar salad ( would this count as a ballad?) and I've woken up singing Ukraine with his firery staircase coffin piano.

Will stamp my feet if Australia or Israel win.

Checking in. So excited for Saturday. Lots of strong entries this year.

guns n tulips

SOOOOO the Draw for the Grand Final is OUT

Here it is with Up dated current betting:

1. Ukraine: Teen Angst Adam’s Family Extra (21st Fav)
2. Spain: We Love Each Other So Much Vomit (20th Fav)
3. Slovenia: Strode Lighting Earache (26th Fav)
4. Lithuania: Diana Vickers Yodelling Tori Amos (6th – Odd lengthened was 4th fav)
5. Austria: Plastic Jumper Landing Platform (18th Fav)
6. Estonia: Operatic Volcano Dress (10th Fav)
7. Norway: Greedy Violining Reprise (8th Fav)
8. Portugal: Pink Haired Duet (22nd Fav)
9. United Kingdom: Official Anthem of Brexit Haters (23rd Fav)
10. Serbia: Albert Einstein Balkan Ballad (25th Fav)
11. Germany: Factory Issue Ed Sheeran Clone (6th Fav)
12. Albania: Dental Zeppelin (24th Fav)
13. France: Mercy Full Shoulderpads (5th Fav)
14. Czech Republic: Camel Trumpet Cappuccino Bum Wigglers (13th Fav)
15. Denmark: Game of Vikings (16th Fav)
16. Australia: Short Long Asymmetric Metallic Meh (12th Fav)
17. Finland: Monstrous Knife Throwing (14th Fav)
18. Bulgaria: Sia Man Bun Fisherman Jumpers (11th Fav)
19. Moldova: Celebrity Squares meets Cruise Cabaret for the Politburo in the Caspian Sea circa 1957 (17th Fav)
20. Sweden: Justin Trousersnake (7th Fav)
21. Hungary: Hangry Barefooted Roooooockkkkkkkkkk!!!! (15th Fav)
22. Israel: Chicken Pikachu Mofo (2nd Fav)
23. Netherlands: Yeehaw Leopard Printed Halfprice Guns & Tulips (19th Fav)
24. Ireland: ‘Nice’ Irish Boy with a Guitar (3rd – Odds narrowed considerably was 9th Fav)
25. Cyprus: Beyonce’s Fiery Gold Foil Trousers (1st – CURRENT FAV)
26. Italy: Talking Mad inventor (9th Fav)

So who does the draw favour??

Well someone has done an average finish per draw for the last five years here:
www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/comments/8i8m8j/average_finish_per_draw_in_the_grand_final_2013/

The winner has TWICE come from slot 11 (this year Germany) and 2nd has TWICE come from slot 25 (Cyprus) (This might not be a good thing!!)

But the best average scores are as follows: 13th, 24th, 9th, 11th/23rd, 20th, 18th, 8th, 7th, 21st, 12th, 6th/25th, 3rd, 10th, 1st/19th, 4th/26th, 15th/22nd, 16th, 5th, 14th/17th and finally 2nd.

Translated to this years entries: France, Ireland, UK, Germany/Netherlands, Sweden, Bulgaria, Portugal, Norway, Hungary, Albania, Estonia/Cyprus, Slovenia, Serbia, Ukraine/Moldova, Lithuania/Italy, Denmark/Israel, Australia, Austria, Czech Rep/Finland and finally Spain

On the Televote alone again the best score has gone to slot 11 TWICE (Germany) and 2nd has TWICE come from slot 25 (Cyprus). Slot 25 has also got some shocking televote scores too though.

The best average scores on televote alone are as follows: 13th, 24th, 20th, 9th, 11th, 8th, 18th, 12th, 21st/23rd, 26th, 10th, 7th, 19th, 6th, 25th, 4th, 15th, 3rd, 22nd, 16th, 1st, 17th, 2nd, 5th and finally 14th.

Translated to this years entries: France, Ireland, Sweden, UK, Germany, Portugal, Bulgaria, Albania, Hungary/Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Norway, Moldova, Estonia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Denmark, Slovenia, Israel, Australia, Ukraine, Finland, Spain, Austria and finally Czech Rep

The person who wrote it concluded that the best draws are: 9th (UK), 13th (France) and 24th (Ireland). 14th (the first straight after the interval - Czech Rep) is the totally pants one, followed by 2nd (Spain).

I note here that the 9th song has only been outside the top 10 once since 2013. (I'd be very very happy for the UK to get in the top 10 tbh). We look to have got pretty much one of the best draws. But.... Brexit. Just Brexit.

Ireland seem to have the dream ticket as all the other ballads have got much poorer draws with the exception of Germany.

I'd be nervous being Cyprus as the favourite in slot 25. Denmark's draw is a tough one too.

I wouldn't be too happy if I was Israel, Czech Rep, Ukraine, Spain, Finland, Australia or Austria.

Who is going to bet against Ireland? Especially with the China TV ban. Annoyingly guess which song has been my earworm today. Yep. Ireland.

I wouldn't be surprised if its favourite by the time the final starts. I hate it.

I'm backing the Vikings but I bet Ireland place in top 3

So based on that, we'd guess either Ireland (ballad) or France (non-ballad), and we think it might be a ballad year (based on the 40% theory).

I can't even begin to contemplate Ireland winning though. They were incredibly lucky to make it out of that semi.

Having listened back to all the semi final performances, it's really very clear that lots of acts from semi one were unlucky. Armenia, Belgium, Greece and Switzerland would most likely have beaten Serbia and Slovenia (and possibly also Hungary/Netherlands).

There was a lot of off-key singing in semi 2: Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Russia, Australia and Romania all guilty of this to varying degrees. The only real culprit in semi 1 was Belarus.

I don't think the jury vote will go the same way as the televote this year. Which could mean a close margin for the eventual winner.

I'm backing Albania, Italy and the Vikings. A win for any one of these would make me happy.

It had better not be Norway, Moldova or Czech Republic. And I'm not terribly keen on Sweden either.

Denmark are definitely my favourites - always have a soft spot for quirky acts with drums. Not a fan of Cyprus or Sweden (far too smug and a bit dull)

Official Anthem of Brexit haters Brilliant!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/culture/music/eurovision-2018-winning-analysis/amp/
What does it take to win Eurovision? An incredibly geeky and detailed analysis

Moody songs are king in the modern contest. Since 2000, songs written in a minor key have made up 14 of the 18 winners. More than that, nine of those have been in one of three specific keys: D minor, G minor or A minor.

While those three keys aren’t particularly overrepresented in the competition overall, for some reason, entries pitched there consistently rise to the top. Given that there are 24 possible permutations of common pop keys (12 major; 12 minor), statistically, they’re punching well above their weight

UK 2018 - B major.
Ireland 2018? - D minor (of course)

I think Estonia, Ireland or Cyprus will win. However I am always wrong. I love Sweden, Lithuania and the Netherlands (I think I fancy the cowboy a little bit). I think Serbia's song is goddamn awful and will surely come last. Looking at the bookies odds, we have no chance of a top 10 finish. Will likely be in the bottom 5 again.

I have been wrong for many years - I love Serbia and Portugal this year.
And Moldova.

So the top ten will be Ireland/Austria/Sweden/Estonia/Cyprus/France/Denmark/Czechia/Finland/Israel.
[sigh]

Ah, just been getting in the mood by watching love love peace peace. Flip there's yer man rybak back again!

Love love peace peace...

🎶and a burning fake piano🎶

Actually, no sighing about Estonia. I like that one.

Love Love Peace Peace has been going through my head, but anyway, it's today!! Oh joyous day!

Poor surie, a lamb to the slaughter.

I'm really looking forward to tonight's show. Cyprus are still favourites at the moment - followed by Israel, Ireland, France and Germany.

The U.K. are favourites to come bottom - so SuRie's aim should be to beat someone. Perhaps getting more points than Serbia would be a reasonable target.

That is some amazing number crunching going on.
Pimp slots and death slots always fascinate me.
What is it about going on second that equals doom or after the interval?
Early = forgettable or everyone is off to the loo/having a ?
Am off to get nibbles in a wee while and more cider to get me through it.
Cannot believe Israel is still 2nd favourite. Reminds me, I need cheese for my ears.

I loved Moldova, a bit musical theatre but it just appealed to me.

I had issues with Ireland just because while I like both the song and the dancers I don’t really think they go together — they look much to young to be living together/cheating/breaking up. They look about seventeen! Or perhaps I’m just getting old...

Vampire man and his flaming piano was a bit creepy. I do like the fact they wrote a song called ladders and then they’re actually banned