GCSE predictions

[Daisy12Maisie]

For GCSE’s my son needs certain results in June 2025 for his chosen career. Due to this he has had tutors for the last year to try and help him.
he just got another progress report and after all the extra help all subjects stayed the same apart from business studies that dropped one grade. He has from now until June to improve but he is trying his best and obviously his wellbeing and health is the most important thing so I think he is going to get good results but not good enough for what he wants to do.

My question is are gcse predictions usually accurate or do they usually go up/ down for the actual exams. He is trying but he has been trying since the last predictions in June and the grades have stayed the same.

I suppose I’ll have to wait and see but it would be good to prepare and look for other options if it doesn’t look likely that he will get what he needs. There will be other options for him so I know he is lucky just maybe not the exact career he wanted.

I'm a teacher and my predictions are usually spot on. Other teachers - sometimes not so much. We don't have a crystal ball though- results are due to the effort and work put in by the students. They can, and do, surprise me!

If his dream career involves going to university then look into vocational level 3 qualifications as well because they are accepted for entry into uni too.

He’s probably not started the exam technique lessons yet and those can really raise grades if that’s his weakness right now.

He has many months to make a difference but, with tutoring no improvement seems less likely (what did the tutors say about that?)

Thanks for the replies. That's interesting to hear the predictions are mostly accurate.

So the English tutor last year very politely said he isn't great at English and his handwriting is terrible and to get him assessed at school for a laptop. This is what he has done and he will now have a laptop for exams. So he is now scoring a 6 at English language and literature and has been since June which is great but he needs 7 and I'm not sure that is realistic. I'll ask the tutor.

Also that's useful to know that the exam technique lessons haven't started yet. He has about 4 subjects that all need to go up a grade and that just seems like a lot to me.

What on earth does he want to do that needs grade 7s?

I've had two DC doing GCSEs and to be honest their predictions weren't that accurate. They went up for some subjects and down for others, sometimes by 2 grades not even just 1.

There is more than one way to skin a cat as my Gran would say. As long as he tries his best and his mental health doesn't suffer in the process there will either be alternative routes to his chosen career or an alternative time to try again for the GCSE grades he wants. It is important to remember it is not a one shot and then you are out kind of a situation.

I feel a bit silly saying what he wants to do because he wants to go to Cambridge to do medicine. It's only silly because his grades don't look like they would be anywhere near high enough. We have looked online and have been advised to simply for at least 7 7's. We were hoping 2 of them would be English as he has a tutor for that.
Anyway I really appreciate everyone's input so quickly. I'll encourage him but I have also said how about somewhere less competitive than Cambridge and maybe consider biology as a back up if you can't get into medicine (he loves science).

I just wondered if they generally went up a grade or 2 after the predictions but I think we will have to just see what he gets and come up with a plan after that.

Has he had a round of mocks between the last predicted grades and these ones?
I've got a child doing exams next summer as well. He did some papers in June, and has some next month. I wouldn't expect a massive change in predictions until after the November mocks.

Yes I agree with the person who said there is more than one way to skin a cat. Sorry I don't know how to quote people.
He is really kind and caring so maybe would make a good nurse if he could get what he needed for that. Or he would like to do medical research.

He has another set of exams in November so maybe they will need more accurate.

Medicine is definitely still open, and it’s good to aim high, but I’d start discussion other university options. What’s he like about medicine? Does he read lots about it? Watch things about being a dr/human biology etc? Oxbridge isn’t just for the super bright, it’s for the super intelligent who are also fascinated by their subject. If you just have intelligence but not a fascination I’d recommend other universities.

Well he's ambitious! And if it helps motivate him it can't hurt!

Revisit once he's a term or two into A levels. If he's still focussed on Med and looks likely to get As, then he will need to be strategic about where he applies to maximise his chances of an offer. FWIW Cam (and Ox) use a traditional style of teaching Med that other unis don't use (problem based is more popular) so Cam may not actually suit him anyway!

Thank you for the replies. I thought I might get some sarcastic comments.

Yes I'm trying to be realistic with him but also help him as much as I can thinking that if he reaches really high but doesn't quite make it the plan b options are also good.

He loves science, maths and helping people. He mentors 2 children with anxiety and helps out at mencap and works in a pharmacy. I asked if he would like to be a pharmacist but he said no.
So I think medicine does suit his interests but so would lots of other courses.
He isn't one for doing lots of wider reading.

My son got a 2 in his history mock after Xmas and a 6 in the real exam in June. He worked very hard to turn things around so it can be done.

Oh wow that's really good.

I think if the teacher has said, 'He isn't great at English' then expecting a 7 - which is an A grade - is a bit unrealistic, to be honest.

And if he's not great at English, it will obviously impact on subjects which require fluently written answers.

Ultimately, if he's trying hard and doing his best then that's great. I've always found that the pupils who succeed are the ones who put the effort in. They tend to go on and do well at stuff whereas the students who sailed by at GCSE getting good results with little effort often don't achieve at A level when they really have to work hard. A good work ethic goes a long way in life.

Oldest DC's ones were pretty accurate - one subject dropped a bit (but was still an excellent result) because they just kind of lost interest in it after a lot of intial enthusiasm but then they got a higher mark in one or two other subjects.

What ate his maths and science grades like?

Thanks for the further replies. Yes I think perhaps 7's for English is perhaps a bit unrealistic. I think getting the best grade he can get in English will help him with whatever he ends up doing.

He has been predicted-
Maths - 8.
Biology - 7
Physics - 7
Chemistry- 8
Psychology - 7

English language - 6
Literature- 6
Geography- 6
Business studies - 6
Computing - 6 but gets 5's/ 6's in tests.

He loves science, maths and psychology.

There is also the option to do graduate entry medicine. I used to be a nurse and I worked with a few doctors who had gone that route.

He sounds great - and a lot of the stuff he is doing (job, mentoring etc) will be really beneficial if he does apply for medicine.
My DC is in Y13 and applying for medicine (including Oxbridge) this year. The process is really not for the faint-hearted and general advice is not to get set on any particular university as medicine offers are hard to come by anywhere. But getting good GSCEs will help with his applications to other medical schools too, so definitely worth trying to get the best grades he can. Cambridge actually cares about GCSE results less than many (and less than Oxford).
Prospective medical students sit an entrance test in the summer of Y12 called the UCAT. It's really difficult! Universities (including Cambridge) then shortlist for interview based on their criteria of how much they weight the UCAT, GCSEs, predicted grades and the personal statement. GSCEs are a relatively small part of the Cambridge shortlisting process. But you need either great GCSE grades or a great UCAT to maximise your chances of getting interviews (the interviews themselves are a whole new hurdle!).
I suppose what I'm saying is both that setting your sights on Cambridge medicine is incredibly ambitious and it's worth trying to stay realistic that only a tiny minority will succeed in that, and also that his GCSE predicted (or actual) grades aren't necessarily that big a part of the picture.
In my experience, PGs have mostly been fairly accurate, but that's based on a fairly small sample. I wish you and him lots of luck.

Your son sounds great and it’s always good to aim high. If it doesn’t work out it sounds like he will have lots of other related fields to go into, and he is clearly a hard worker doing extra tutoring and all the extra curricular work and volunteering. I find grades go up a bit for the real exams, however I think it depends on the child. Some pull out all the stops when the real deal comes around, but others try hard / are able to focus well all year round. Which camp does your son fall in do you think?

If he falls short of the grades then psychology could be an excellent alternative, given he is interested in it and is mentoring children with anxiety. Now mental health is being recognised as being as important as it is, and with a lot of people recieving diagnosis’s for things like adhd and autism etc, psychology is surely an expanding field where he would always be able to find work and stretch himself