GCSE predictions

[Daisy12Maisie]

For GCSE’s my son needs certain results in June 2025 for his chosen career. Due to this he has had tutors for the last year to try and help him.
he just got another progress report and after all the extra help all subjects stayed the same apart from business studies that dropped one grade. He has from now until June to improve but he is trying his best and obviously his wellbeing and health is the most important thing so I think he is going to get good results but not good enough for what he wants to do.

My question is are gcse predictions usually accurate or do they usually go up/ down for the actual exams. He is trying but he has been trying since the last predictions in June and the grades have stayed the same.

I suppose I’ll have to wait and see but it would be good to prepare and look for other options if it doesn’t look likely that he will get what he needs. There will be other options for him so I know he is lucky just maybe not the exact career he wanted.

I am a teacher. Predictions are usually in the optimistic side of accurate, but there are always exceptions, especially for students putting in ait more mork than most, and working with tutors etc.

It's not likely he has done any assessments since June so there wouldn't be any evidence for teachers to alter their predictions on. I am guessing he has mock exams later this term? They will give a better indication of where he is now. Students tend to improve on their end of year ten mock scores.

At my school 7s and above would be too set students and the top half of the top set probably.

On average, DS more or less got his predicted grades at GCSE last summer. In some subjects, he got higher than he was predicted, in some subjects lower. He was predicted a 7.8 average (which I thought was ambitious), he got a 7.5 average, across ten subjects.

My dd was broadly in line. Up by 1/2 grades in 3 or 4 and down by a grade in 1

Honestly, I think you need to accept (and help him to accept) that Cambridge medicine is really unlikely to be possible, and medicine at undergraduate may also not be possible (there's always the possibility of him doing well in a science degree and doing post grad medicine, but it is still super competitive).

That's not to say he can't try, but if those are the grades he's achieving with tutoring at GCSE (or is the only tutoring English?) it seems very unlikely that he will get the Alevel grades he needs for medicine. It's not so much about the English, as the fact that overall his grade predictions aren't great (to be clear - in a Medicine/Oxbridge context, these are great predictions in the normal world). Yes, maybe he'll pull it out the bag but the academics only get harder.

Does his school not predict 9s (I know some don't) or is it that they're genuinely not expecting him to get 9s in maths and chemistry? That (and the 7s in physics and biology) are the part that would worry me - he's going to need mainly A* at Alevel in maths/science and (to be brutal) should be finding GCSE relatively easy if that's likely.

Some kids (and particularly boys) do get into their groove late, so I'm not saying it's impossible at all but it is looking fairly unlikely unless something dramatically changes at Alevel. But I think you need to be careful - tutoring to push up his grades at GCSE may just he delaying the inevitable.

That said, I note the lap top point - are there SEN concerns? Might the issue be he doesn't really understand how to study/needs support in that area?

Sorry to be harsh and of course he can still try. It's just there is a really high chance he won't be able to achieve his dream (and this is very common for people who dream of medicine) and you now have the very difficult job of preparing him for a fall, whilst not making him think you don't believe in him.

If there's a chance it's SEN/study skills rather than ability I would focus very hard on that area though. I have a child with ADHD and specialist tutoring from someone who understands and knows how to teach him to study has made an absolutely massive difference.

Both my DC’s predictions were accurate. Exam technique is really important, look online for examining board’s past papers (2024 wont be available yet) along with the mark schemes and the examiner’s report. These will give insight into how to answer the questions.
I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that the average Oxbridge student has 4 x 9’s in their GCSE results.
The best of luck to your son.

Thank you everyone. I really appreciate the comments.
I do think Cambridge is unrealistic and I have told him that (kindly) and spoken about how competitive medicine is at the best of times. I have also spoken about how important it is to have a plan B.
I'll see what he gets in his actual GCSE's and then have a chat with him about what is actually realistic.
To the person that says does he have SEN. Definitely nothing of a social nature as he is very good socially and the kindest most empathetic person I know. The handwriting thing I thought was strange as I have helped him since he was at primary school and seemed to have terrible handwriting. He just cannot get it to be any neater. So the laptop will help but I'm not sure if there are any reasons behind it. I think he will do well regardless but looking at the grades considering he has had extra help I'm not sure medicine ifs for him. Yes to the person who said maybe he would enjoy exploring the psychology further.

There are so many options other than medicine OP, and I'm sure he'll find his niche because he sounds great!

Thank you. I think he is but obviously I'm bias. Yes I think there is caring role for him out there. Maybe not medicine but something in that field.