I’ve not posted in ages and probably had a name change since then.
The trouble for the FIA is they made such a cock up in 2021 e.g. Spa, Brazil as well as AD they have put so much doubt in fan’s minds. They then did not have a clue how to resolve AD and were not prepared to make a courageous decision and make Lewis and Max joint champions for 2021. In my view, the only way to fairly resolve the situation.
As a fan of decades I know my initial reaction to the Yuki situation at Zandvoort was Helmut had been interfering but actually Alpha Tauri were potentially trying to avoid a penalty if they had released a car with a tyre not properly fitted.
The FIA had made a big deal out of the rule clarifications and changes as a result of their investigation and as we saw in Suzuka they cocked that up. The whole point of the changes around % of race completed was based on Spa, but the rules as written meant that after the red flag all Max had to do was one lap behind the safety car at the 2/3 hour point to get full points. It was a very flat way to crown the new world champion and unfair to Max.
The FIA have also made a big deal out of the cost cap and are now faced with their nightmare scenario of RBR breaching. I strongly suspect the delay has been because there has been a lot of horse trading between the FIA and RBR over the accounting method and also what penalties they should get, if any. I cannot see them changing the WDC for either year, and deducting constructors points for 2021 doesn’t matter in championship terms as Mercedes were WCC.
Obviously RBR benefitted from the higher spend in 2021 to develop the 2022 car and for 2022 they may have received higher payments based on Constructors points/placing. Plus if they have used the same methodology for 2022 they will have also benefitted for in season development of the 2022 car and potentially 2023 car which is unfair.
Personally I would like to see RBR lose all 2022 constructors points and only get the Constructors payment for 2023 based on being 10th. For 2022 their cost cap should be reduced £ for £ of the amount overspent in 2021. For 2023 their cap should also be lower. Not getting the WCC in 2022 would hurt RBR the most and send a clear message.
What I think will happen is the FIA will say misunderstanding of rules in first year and not clear as they could be. Rules clarified and now understood by all for 2022. RBR to lose x constructors points for 2021 season. To close to end of 2022 season to financially penalise RBR.
Very interested to see what the end up doing.