SATs results (didn’t quite meet ARE) and GCSE predictions

[Awcw1234]

Got my daughter’s KS2 SATs results today.

Maths - 104
Reading - 99
SPAG - 98

I understand that she didn’t quite meet the mark for ‘meeting expectations’ as you need a scaled score of 100 or more. However, she was very close! Will her high school push her to get 4’s in her GCSEs? Just a bit concerned that they won’t based on these results as I know some schools set GCSE targets based on SATs results.

My daughter is dyslexic and has come so far over this past year as she was very far behind (she ended Y5 with a Maths scaled score of 81 and English 91).

I understand that these scores may seem low to some but I’m very proud of her as her confidence was shocking at the beginning of Y6 and she was barely scoring anything on the practice papers. She also suffers from maths anxiety so to not only pass but achieve the score she did is amazing.

Just wondering what the outcome has been for others with similar results x

Yes the secondary will definitely be pushing for 4+.

Amazing results for your daughter! Also a mum of a dyslexic child and honestly these results are amazing. Well done!

My twins have virtually the same results butnthe other way round as maths is the lowest and I'm supper proud of them too the were born prematurely early life was not to plan and they have always struggled a little academically esp with maths my sibling is a secondary school teacher and says that they set by scared score and predict by that rather than by ARE so the difference between 98 and 101 is not a big difference.

Thank you. I’m so proud of her!

Relieved you’ve said this!

Well done to your twins!
Glad to hear that the schools set by scaled scores! Like you said, difference between 98-101 is not much at all!

Mother of a dyslexic child, who was a late bloomer here.
He didn't sit SATs through covid, but has absolutely smashed his school generated GCSE targets. He is generally getting 2 grades higher than predicted, and has been encouraged by school the whole way.

In our school she would be in Middle sets in y7. Pushing to achieve 3

Dc1 got lower grades than your dd (also dyslexic). Secondary school put a lot of effort into dc who are borderline as they want students to get at least a 4 if possible. Dc1 got 4-6s at gcse, did a btec and then a diploma at university (is looking to do a degree in a year or two). And at aged 21 is working, driving and owns own home (without any financial support from me). These results definitely don't mean no 4+ at gcse.
In comparison dc2 is averaging 6/7+ and dc3 8/9s and neither have had the extra support put in place for dc1 (same school).
Look at alternative ways of supporting dd - we watched lots of films documentaries related to school topics. English literature we used comic strip books. Dc1 is definitely a visual learner and these helped. I'd say I also had to be much more hands on especially in the first few years of Secondary school than dc2 and 3.

Wow, really? They wouldn’t push them to achieve 4s at GCSE in middle sets?

Thank you. My daughter is very much a visual learner so these are all useless tips.
It sounds as though all of you kids have done amazing ☺️

My eldest just hit at around 100 and he is in middle and he's aiming for 4s and 5s now. Hes going into year 9 in Sept.

My youngest got 98 in Maths, and 86 in both SPAG & Reading. We were chuffed with the 86. He has really really struggled and he said wow mum I thought I'd get 20.

He is dyslexic too and will be on a pathway when he starts secondary school. The SEN team are really supportive

Schools mostly use FFT data to set target grades.

this requires various information as inputs including the scaled scores, the month of birth and the gender of the child.

FFT offers various prediction services and schools can choose how ambitious they want to be. So for example a school might choose to set target grades that if achieved mean the school is better than 50% of schools.
or it could choose to set target grades that if achieved mean that the school is better than 75% of schools.

so to some extent her target grades will depend on how pushy and ambitious the secondary/the management at the secondary are.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2022/11/a-quick-overview-of-fft-estimates-for-secondary-schools/

There are 9 sets.... 3 top 3 middle 3 lower.

Oh sorry, now I realised the question was about 4 at GCSE !

They push to achieve grade 4 in year 7 which is by year 11 grade 9.

So middle sets are expected to get between 6-8 at GCSE.

We would use these results for initial setting but in the first few months ours take CATS and we go off them more. They will push her as much as she is capable because it will look good for their figures!

This totally about the different support. One of my DC has severe dyslexia and needs visual support and he's also very kinesthetic. I did alsorts of wierd and wacky! He is nearly 20, level 3 qualified at diploma level with motor mechanics, working, driving. Yes, Still financially dependent at home , but that's ok. His reading age at 13 was 7 1/2 years. Apparently a functional reading age for an adult in the UK is 8 1/2 years. The school pushed and pushed for my son to get 1 to 1 daily reading to boost his reading level. I was so pleased to hear today about the reading initiative in schools for 2026. Apparently the biggest indicator of success in a maths gcse is reading levels.

My son’s results were similar (although reading just met expectations and maths and SPaG were below). He is in Y7 and school are expecting him to get a 4 in English (not sure he will in maths as he really struggles). School have put in some extra support- will have to see how next year goes.

Schools are moving back to being measured on attainment rather than progress - how many students reach the 4+, 5+, 7+ grades, so would be daft not to be pushing your child to attain the 4.

Saying that, any school worth their salt, regardless of whether progress or attainment figures are the order of the day, wouldn’t easily settle for a 3, particularly when it is the 4+ that your child would need for college.

My ds had similar scores. Predicted 3+/4- on ‘flight path’ to GCSE for English and Humanities.
In my experience it can mean (depending on the school) they aren’t pushed but definitely will be to 4.
He ended up with a 5 in English Language (his lowest GCSE) and an 8 in English Literature.

By year 9/10 he had moved from the lowest sets up to the highest- except in English.
In fact his average GCSE score was 8 (predicted 4- to 5+). He did have me helping him with science (my job) and literature/history (my interests) and a maths/English tutor 1x a week.

I do think the SATs results can limit them in so far as teachers’ expectations -and their own. But they can exceed these and sometimes it’s easier without the pressure of high predicted grades.

My advice would be a wide range of audiobooks + listen to podcasts on vaguely educational subjects she is interested in to increase her vocabulary.

Keep doing lots of maths practice, as maths really rewards effort. Get her confidence up by practice, which will then make her less nervous .

Science, there’s so many excellent videos especially for GCSE and again it really rewards repetition .

You know your dd best and what you can do at home to help her confidence and find learning enjoyable. Your help will make a massive difference.
Her educational journey is not decided by her results now.

My dd is year 11 so anxiously waiting GCSE results. She did not do SATS due to covid but got an estimated score of 104 in maths and similar in English and was predicted 5s (though school do not actually tell you this or, indeed anything about flight paths, until end of year 9).

In year 9 she was diagnosed with dyslexia, which explained why English/ literacy had become harder for her as the demands became more challenging. My experience since has been v similar to a couple of other posters with a dyslexic child in that her expected grades have gone up around 3 grades from these initial predictions. Essentially I told her to ignore the 'flight path'. School are willing to support any child who wants to work, so although there are some extra sessions eg for science she was not 'invited' to (as she was not going below flight path, whereas someone predicted 8 and achieving 7 would get this support...) they were fine for her to attend. I have also done a lot of work with her for science (related to my job) using the CGP guides and English (my favourite subject) and she had an English tutor.

She was in a middle set for maths in year 7, and thinks (from watching the tik toks of exam papers) she should have got a 7 in GCSE. English, her weakest subject area, she got 6 and 7 in mocks and in science got 8s and 9s.

So in summary I would totally ignore the flight path and support her to aim for what you think she might be capable of. I think with these scores her flight path would be around 4-5 anyway. Seems anecdotally children with dyslexia (and probably others) may not be exhibiting their full potential at the end of primary school.

Thank you for all of your replies! Hopefully missing out on ‘meeting expectations’ by 1-2 scales marks won’t mean low GCSE predictions then (by low I mean below 4s!). I know she isn’t going to get straight 9s, I just want her to achieve the minimum of 4s so she can go on to college, etc.

There is a difference between predictions and what they will aim to meet. School will want those passes.

You can go to college with less than 4s, but would currently need to resit maths or English language if they weren't passed.

To succeed at A levels you are often looking at grade 6s or so. But there are vocational courses that can be done with the level of the course dependent on incoming GCSE grades.

(Personally I'd see how things go in y7/y8 but consider tutoring if affordable from y9 if outcomes for maths /English iffy.)

The secondary school will be measured on progress based upon the average of Reading and Maths - which is above 100.

It also has to publish stats on English and Maths passes. A massive effort goes on in schools to turn 3s into 4s.

She most likely will have a low predicted grade bit that doesn’t mean she won’t be pushed. We take predictions with a pinch of salt. I have a girl in my top set science class with a predicted grade of a 4, she should come out with a 7. There are some kids that didn’t do well in primary but absolutely fly in secondary, and some seemingly high achievers from primary that seemed to peak in year 6.