Waiting list March - Sept: do they move only/mostly because of kids going private?

[ParentOfOne]

Apologies if it's a very silly question :(

but, at a high level, do the waiting lists for state schools move, between March and September, only or mostly because kids go private?

I mean, I appreciate some families may have to move at the last moment, and some may decide to homeschool (eg if they didn't get any of their choices), but how many such cases can there be?

In other words, is the main reason for the waiting lists moving that some kids had applied to state schools as a safe choice, then got into a private one, and therefore gave up their place? Or are there other reasons?

I am in London. Not all councils publish data on the waiting list movements between March and September but, for those which do, the difference tends to be significant.

I suppose the main question for Sept 2026 admissions will be which of the two effects prevails, between i) VAT pushing fewer people to go private and ii) declining birth rates + families leaving London (primary schools have been closing left right and centre) making it easier to get admission.

In London there is so much wealth and private schools remain so oversubscribed that my crystal ball tells me i) won't be much of an effect. But I haven't dusted my crystal ball in a while :)

I think this will be entirely area dependent (and if you narrow down your area, people might be able to give you more local info).

in my area there is quite a lot of movement on waiting lists but it's driven almost entirely by people moving out (and in) of the area, with a smaller amount linked to people getting places at a different state school (either via waiting list or appeal). People getting private school places is a tiny blip.

But I'm sure it is differnet elsewhere.

I'm in SW London, and there are quite a few private schools within commuting distance.

Friends who work as teachers tell me there is a lot of movement in the first years of primary schools, but much less in the first years of secondary. Basically families with younger kids are more likely to do a couple of year of primary in a certain area, then move elsewhere, whereas once you get to secondary most families are more settled. Anyway, this would be movement after having started school.

I was thinking more about movement before the school starts.
There has been the occasional case of a school having illegal admission arrangements, which then caused massive movements, but that's rare and is a one-off. One case was the Charter school in North Dulwich (SE London), which calculated distance based on "safe walking routes" which just so happened (oh what a coincidence) to exclude certain council estates.

That's why I was wondering: is it really just kids going private? Some families moving out after having submitted their applications? Is there anything else?

By the way, annoyingly, not all schools and councils publish how much waiting lists have moved between March and September of the previous years.

It can depend on your admission category too. Some schools (Charter North Dulwich is one) offer a set amount of places only available to pupil premium students (via additional entry form) so if you fit in this category there may be more movement. For example some of these students may be rehoused too far away from the school so will end up going to another.

There are always students who never turn up at the beginning of year 7 for one reason or another. Some of these are private school students whose parents never declined the place but I wouldn’t say it is universal.

I did admissions in NW London.
Huge movement when Brexit happened, many Eastern European people returned to the country of their birth.
In reference to private education - if there is a popular private school near this will result in movement too.
It is a waiting game, unfortunately.

@where "It can depend on your admission category too. Some schools (Charter North Dulwich is one) offer a set amount of places only available to pupil premium students (via additional entry form)"

Interesting - I wasn't aware.
Of the schools I'm looking at, none has this, but some have specialist places (based on the Wandsworth test, or on specialism tests for music, languages and art). Not sure specialist places necessarily imply a lot of movement, though

I also wonder if some places are removed because the Council detects fraud - e.g. applying from grandma's address, renting a place near a school while retaining your main home somewhere else, etc, but, again, how many such cases can there be?

Maybe something to do with religious places? If they check with the relevant church?

Are you looking at primary or secondary?

Some where like Graveney would have movement quite late as dc who got a high score may also get grammar places and then some will go private.

@footpath Looking at secondary.

Some where like Graveney would have movement quite late as dc who got a high score may also get grammar places and then some will go private.

How does this work in practice? I have seen the websites of a few private schools and grammar schools, and they say that parents must accept a place by the end of March. Is the movement because the waiting list of those private and grammar schools means that some parents will only get a place in June or July, they forget to notify the council that they have accepted it, and so the council thinks that little Johnny is going to a local comp, then little Johnny never shows up?

So you accept a place but you can still be on waiting lists for other schools.

It's a combo of people leaving London or moving within, switching to private (not all are selective) & then movement between other schools.

Parents do forget, you will get dc who are due to start in school X but just don't turn up at the beginning of term.

What school are you hoping for?

This years secondary intake is still quite large though. Primaries numbers are declining but because schools have/are closing, merging, reducing their PAN I believe fewer parents got their 1st choice this yr.

There will be movement. The Tiffin waitlists for example are still moving- this will cause other movements. And there are always families doing last minute moves abroad etc.

When you say there won’t be much effect how much do you specifically need? This is the only important factor.

In London there’s generally movement well into the autumn term. People do get caught lying, people forget, they get schools further up their list or not in the state system, they move away etc etc.
Even if councils won’t give you the numbers you need you could probably do some sort of FOI request of the individual schools. Or just call the individual school admission admin person and ask?

Most admission teams will give you a rough estimate where you are on a list.

@footpath "What school are you hoping for?"

State schools in the SW area of London, some of which are partially selective.
I will apply in October - haven't applied yet.

I suspect the main source of movement will be kids who use the good state schools as a backup, but then go private if they get the offer. You can only apply to 6 state schools, but you can potentially apply to as many private as you want, depending on how much stress you want to subject your child to!

Another source of movement might be foreigners who haven't reached the settled status and who might leave the country because of the new reform requiring 10 years, instead of 5, to become settle and apply for naturalisation.

I keep hearing about primary schools closing all over London, but not of secondary schools, so this must have a ripple effect at some point. Who know if it will be after my child starts Y7.

I also noted that most schools in the area have had a much larger than usual number of sibling applications - I wonder if that's just a coincidence but it means that offer distances in March 2025 were often shorter than in March 2024

Even if councils won’t give you the numbers you need you could probably do some sort of FOI request of the individual schools. Or just call the individual school admission admin person and ask?

I have called one council and two schools. The council told me to ask the schools, and both schools told me they don't track this piece of information, so they would have to manually go through every single child's file and they don't have the time for that. The neighbouring council is much more open and transparent, collects and publishes all data, including the difference between the maximum distance in March vs September

Oh so you are looking at 2026 entry.

I think with the grammars in SW london you put them down even if you don't know if you will have a place. You can pass the tests but still not get a space T your preferred grammar.

Falling birth rates will start to hit secondaries but it's not going to mean a dearth of places because the best schools are so oversubscribed anyway. VAT on private may push more towards the best states but I don't think we have seen evidence of this yet.

My understanding is the birth rate issue won’t hit secondary for a couple of years yet. It is also much less likely to be a factor for successful/ desirable secondaries.

if I were you I’d concentrate on visiting as many as possible to get a view as to which will best suit your child and take it from there.

I know lots of dc who did not get a grammar or selective place but got a private. The private is often the back up.

Often it's the same dc who apply for the grammars and the selective places & some of those also try private which is why movement is often pretty high.

I think the best state secondaries will be even more oversubscribed with falling rolls.

What do you mean? If there are fewer families, then shouldn't the maximum admission distance increase in most schools?

I can see how in the best schools not much will change, as they will remain coveted, but why should they instead be more oversubscribed?

As I already said it's happened with primaries.

www.itv.com/news/london/2025-04-16/fewer-london-children-secure-top-choice-of-primary-school

You can still have more people fighting over fewer places even if there are less people overall.

Local sixth form college to us has been massively more oversubscribed than usual - everyone I know who wanted to do STEM there didn't get a place. The open day was full of kids in Y11 at private schools, many more than usual leaving.

Schools can't necessarily operate if they are not full due to the funding model so they reduce their PAN and some will end up closing.

You also can't predict sibling numbers & if a school has selective places then distance isn't such an issue. Plus some schools have feeders.

My friend is number 25 for her preferred secondary. Sibling places were about 110 vs previous yrs of 80 ish.

@footpath I am not sure that the % of families getting their first choice is a very relevant metric. It will depend massively on how "aspirational" vs realistic certain families are. I think that the maximum admission distance is a more relevant metric. E.g. I have noticed that the impact of Ofsted rating tends to be very direct, with an outstanding correlated to a narrowing of the maximum distance, and a downgrade to a widening. That seems more of an indication of how much more or less oversubscribed a school is.

E.g. I noticed that after Covid the max admission distance in the local primaries went up a lot, and then came down again in the following years.

You can still have more people fighting over fewer places even if there are less people overall.

Sure, but that wouldn't be caused by families leaving the area, it would probably be caused by a school becoming more coveted because it has improved its reputation, got a better Ofsted result, etc

Local sixth form college to us has been massively more oversubscribed than usual

But 6th form is a different animal. At 6th form you do only 3-4 subjects, so changes in oversubscriptions could be due to many things, like certain subjects becoming more popular, or (as you say, if I understood correctly) kids applying from private schools to a state 6th form

Interestingly, Lambeth is one of the London boroughs with the most undersubscribed schools (5 or 6, I forget exactly). No idea how much that is demographics and how much it's the schools not being great, but it doesn't seem very sustainable for long.