Waiting list March - Sept: do they move only/mostly because of kids going private?

[ParentOfOne]

Apologies if it's a very silly question :(

but, at a high level, do the waiting lists for state schools move, between March and September, only or mostly because kids go private?

I mean, I appreciate some families may have to move at the last moment, and some may decide to homeschool (eg if they didn't get any of their choices), but how many such cases can there be?

In other words, is the main reason for the waiting lists moving that some kids had applied to state schools as a safe choice, then got into a private one, and therefore gave up their place? Or are there other reasons?

I am in London. Not all councils publish data on the waiting list movements between March and September but, for those which do, the difference tends to be significant.

I suppose the main question for Sept 2026 admissions will be which of the two effects prevails, between i) VAT pushing fewer people to go private and ii) declining birth rates + families leaving London (primary schools have been closing left right and centre) making it easier to get admission.

In London there is so much wealth and private schools remain so oversubscribed that my crystal ball tells me i) won't be much of an effect. But I haven't dusted my crystal ball in a while :)

That's always the case though re parents putting down schools without any hope of actually getting. You can't assume that lower numbers means maximum distances will increase because there are too many variables. Ofsted results are important but again unless they go to requiring improvement unlikely to have a huge impact.

Lots of people left London or moved to other parts during covid.

It's also borough specific, some boroughs are seeing more dc & more demand. Lambeth is as you say one of the worst affected.

I actually confused as to what point you are trying to make. But as someone who works in schools I would recommend people look at their school options in detail. Many parents thinking smaller classes are a good thing with more attention but if the funding isn't there it means less staff.

"I actually confused as to what point you are trying to make. "

It started as a question on what drives waiting list movements, and it seems that my impressions were correct, with the movements being driven mostly by kids going private / grammar or by families moving elsewhere (at least in London, I appreciate that elsewhere it may be different and there may be fewer private schools and less movement).

The point in my last message was that I would not think of % of families getting their first choice as a reliable metric; I would focus much more on maximum admission distance, and be inclined to interpret that as a sign of how much harder or easier it's been getting to be admitted.

The point in my last message was that I would not think of % of families getting their first choice as a reliable metric;

But my point is it illustrates that fewer dc doesn't necessarily translate to more available school places.

I would focus much more on maximum admission distance, and be inclined to interpret that as a sign of how much harder or easier it's been getting to be admitted.

And as I said this only tells a small part of the picture. How many siblings are there? Has the school reduced its PAN or is planning to? London is seeing fewer house moves in general because of stamp duty & costs so distances can move out. Just be mindful in assuming that if the catchment was 2k this year it will be the same next year.

Also increased numbers of dc with EHCPs which is usually 1st priority for a place

If you live in a high density area and so have a number of oversubscribed schools relatively close together then one child going private can lead to a huge amount of movement as each move then opens up a place somewhere else.

@footpath
And as I said this only tells a small part of the picture. How many siblings are there? Has the school reduced its PAN or is planning to? London is seeing fewer house moves in general because of stamp duty & costs so distances can move out. Just be mindful in assuming that if the catchment was 2k this year it will be the same next year.

Whether the PAN changed or is changing the following year will be public information.
As for the rest, I suppose I may have been unclear.
Of course the maximum admission distance is only part of the story.
But at least it tells me something, whereas knowing how many families got their first choice doesn't tell me anything.

If I see that the maximum admission distances for a certain school have been 1,400 , 1,500 and 1,450 metres, and I live 1,000 metres away, I know I have a decent chance.

If they have been 2,000, 1900 and 2100 and I live 1850 metres away my odds aren't that great.

I know these distances can change, I know there is no guarantee.

I am simply saying that looking at the maximum admission distances over the years seems to me the least worst way to estimate your chances. It is imperfect, distances can change, but how else would you assess your chances? Surely it wouldn't be very wise to say "distances can change so I'll have the same chances at any school in the borough"?

Of course you need to be mindful of max distances, that has always been the case & will give you an indication of chances of a place. I haven't said otherwise. What I said was don't assume falling rolls means maximum distances will increase...

I understand your question & the reason for it, it’s not silly at all. I can confirm I held onto our favourite State place & our favourite Independent place (1) when results & offers came out. Because, I wasn’t 💯 sure I wanted my DC to go to Private school. However, I released it a couple of weeks later (State). I definitely wouldn’t have left it till the last minute/during a time when uniform is brought! Although, there are people that do, because they believe they have that right.

Imo Independent and Grammar acceptances are going to be a main reason for movement w State comp’ schools. So, my theory is most movement will happen around March and again near the middle/ end of the Summer.
Remember, most Independent & Grammar schools have induction sessions in June-where the kids will make friends… so there maybe movement then also.

I think there is quite a bit of churn and it takes awhile to shake down. For example, round here you get six choices of schools when you make your application and you put them in order of preference. If you get your sixth choice then you go in the waiting list for the school further up the chain. Then maybe you get offered your fifth choice which you accept, but you remain on the waiting list for the other four and so it goes on. By the time it settles, it can often be well into August.

A child who lives across the road from us originally got offered his second choice and it wasn't until the end of August, really just a few days before the school went back that he got offered his first choice. They had already ordered the uniform for the second choice School and had to scrabble around frantically in order to get uniform for final choice School.

Also, DC is at independent and going into year seven in September. We did apply for a state school place last October when the picture wasn't so clear. We knew what we wanted by national offer day in March and released our allocated state school place straight away.