Target GCSE grades - please make me understand

[loveyorkshiredales]

DD in Y8 , received this target and forecast grades, Please make me understand target and forecast. Do they look okay ? DD wants to be able to get into the topmost universities. My education is not from UK, so trying to make a sense of it. Parents meeting is not until next month.

There are only 9 grades, so yes, they are very much okay

To be honest setting any kind of targets in y8 for gcse is a bit pointless.

In normal language those are mostly As and A*s. A 6 is more like a B.

Good grades, Target probably based on SATS, forecast on ongoing tests and classwork. There might be a few subjects where dc is underperforming but it is early to be unduly concerned.

we do know three sciences needs work doing, DD on it.

These have been taken from their yr2SATs or more likely CATs sat at beginning of yr7. From this a flight path is predicted, usually using a national organisation called 'fisher family trust'. Schools often aim to be in the top 20% (often referred to as fft20)
They give the most likely grade given previous scores, based on similar students in similar schools in the past.
I would be looking at any predictions lower than expectations with interest, but more I would look for current progress. Predicting 4 years in advance is very vague, they haven't even started GCSEs. It may help set students though or decide foundation/higher papers.

How did she do on y6 sats?

Y6 grades were greater to depth, on top of my head 118 something

In Y8, they aren't necessarily a helpful guide to final gcse results.

I'd look at maths (which will help the physics) and the sciences. And anything she is predicted to achieve lower than her target currently.

Firstly, PGs for GCSEs in year 8 are fairly meaningless IMO.

But yes those are very good PGs overall. What subjects does your DD favour? The only areas I can see to focus on are maths, physics and chemistry – and even then only if science A levels are the plan; otherwise a GCSE grade of 6 is fine.

These aren't actually useful as predictions (they're forecasting too far into the future using an unknown, likely highly unreliable methodology), but, if she'd like to get into the top universities (presumably Oxbridge or international equivalents), her grades will need to be much, much higher relative to her cohort than they currently are (from experience having seen into the examination and interviewing process, typical GCSE, IGCSE or equivalents for Oxbridge applicants, while outdated by the time they're applying to university, will generally have all been near the very top of the range, typically a combination of 8s and 9s; at the same time, predicted or completed A-Levels or equivalents will be much more relevant, and typically be a combination of As and A*s).

@Plathtitudes I think that there is much more nuance to how Oxbridge use contextual data than you suggest. Many successful candidates do not have all 8/9's in their GCSE's especially in subjects they are no longer studying. Having said that I would say it's way too early to have University as the main focus. I'm assuming she hasn't even picked her GCSE options yet.

She is picking the subjects next month.

I agree @trickortrickier ; I know that it is often suggested on MN that students need all 9s or all 8s and 9s at GCSE to get into Oxford, but another thread currently in Higher ed gives the lie to that.

There are about 7,000 places each year at Ox and Cambs together; to take 2019 as the last 'regular' year of exams, 837 students got all 9s in 7+ subjects; I can't easily see how many got all 8s and 9s, but even if it were another 3,000 students, the total gaining all 8s/9s or 9s would not be enough to fill Oxford and Cambridge. And that's if they all wanted to go there.

Oh do they start GCSE in year 9? What subjects is she looking at taking? Feels so early

@trickortrickier Hence, in my experience, "typical" and "generally" (having been contracted to aid in assessing and moderating applicant entrance examinations and interviews at two faculties at one of the institutions in question, and having ended up having more insight than expected into broader collations of applicant characteristics, too, albeit perhaps for a particularly competitive set of programmes). At the same time, the substance of my comment is really that a student invited to be examined and interview at Oxbridge would typically have much higher grades "relative to their cohort," with GCSEs and equivalents outdated by the time students are applying to university, but predicted or obtained A-Levels and equivalents more relevant (keeping in mind, also, the unusually large proportion of both home and international applicants who have completed alternative qualifications such as the International Baccalaureate, European Baccalaureate, and so on). All that noted, the grades themselves would put students into consideration but not on their own get them an offer, as examinations and interviews are weighed much more heavily (and spent much, much more time being considered, evaluated, moderated, reconsidered, and so on).

@clary She is picking History, Geography, Arts, DT, Computing- might drop History in year 9 but she is indecisive between Geography and History at the moment. She told me English, Maths, and sciences are compulsory.

She has to pick up the subjects by end of next month- school deadline.

@Plathtitudes Only three children from her school went to these top universities you have mentioned.

I mean every year that's average sometimes five.

i finished highschool in 2022, and all my predicted grades were 6s. i finished year 11 with mainly 8s with some 7s and 6s a 9 and a 5 so if she’s willing to put in the effort for the next 3 years or so there’s no reason she won’t get higher than her predicted grades! college/ 6th form is what they will mostly look at, she’ll need to be constantly high achieving to get predictions of a/a* in all three subjects which is what oxbridge and russell group unis ideally want. i’d advise her to do an epq at college as that’s what my friend who goes to cambridge did but that’s a long way off! she just needs to get a good study/life balance now and she should be more than capable to get to the uni she wants. potentially get her a tutor for physics if you’re able to or even support her in learning it herself, i brought my chemistry and biology grade up from 5s to 8s by myself due to watching videos and making notes on each topic aswell as using the exam boards specification to see what i will be learning/ have been learning just to get ahead. all in all she just needs to put in consistent work as at the end of the day predicted gcse grades dont matter its the end grades that are important, a level predicted grades matter to get offers but the end grades need to match or exceed them to get into top level unis the majority of the time but through clearing you can get in with lower grades than your predicted although i’m fairly certain oxbridge don’t go through clearing, however not 100% on that as i didn’t apply! sorry this is so long, let me know if you have any questions. :)

@amberb1604 Thank you for providing more insight. what is epq?

This is basically what they mean.

@loveyorkshiredales EPQ is an extra qualification you can do alongside A levels. It’s not vital tho and while it can help with essay writing and research skills, some DC find it detracts too much from their A levels, where the best possible grades are really key.

All a long way off for your dd tho.

i infer her options choices are just an initial narrowing down as otherwise five is a lot of options (usually it’s 2-3 or maybe 4).