Year 7 target GCSE grades

[OrtIrect]

Looking for some advice. My summer born, recently ADHD diagnosed child has just started year 7 and their first report includes predicted GCSE grades as a ‘target’. They are all 4s and 5s. Basically, if they got these grades, in the area we live in, they wouldn’t have the option of a levels as they are not sufficient for the local 6th form college. It may well be that this isn’t the route for them anyway but their reading age (as measured by school) is over +2 years over his chronological age and they are already rated as one or two grades above target after less than one term based on actual attainment. I’m confused and concerned about how best to help him and how to manage his expectations as he talks about university. I have an uneasy feeling that he will be a ‘box check’ pupil ie on track for exceeding very modest targets. He is currently awaiting medication for the adhd. Can anyone advise or share similar experiences?

I can’t see how you can possibly accurately predict from year seven. There will be subjects they have barely studied yet.

My daughter worked at a 6 in year 7 and 8 for English and got a 9 in both lang and lit in the end.

Take it with a huge pinch of salt and if you feel there needs to be additional tutoring going forwards consider it on a case by case basis. But don’t put too much store in it right now.

Are they based on SATs scores?

They will most likely be based on SAT scores. I wouldn't worry too much about it. It doesn't define him. It is not personalised. It is based on statistics eg other students who got those SAT scores averaged this grade at GCSE.

If anything they will be based on SATs results, nothing else. I am a teacher. I would struggle to accurately predict GCSE grades for my year ten classes at this stage of the year. Predicted grades are very often nonsense until.much closer to the real thing.

Target grades are a made up nonsense.

Focus on actual attainment and effort.

Thanks for the input. The target grades are based on SATs and CATs but the only feedback on actual scores was the reading age. For Sats they got 99 maths and 109/105 for reading and grammar. They were not allowed additional time as the diagnosis of ADHD was not confirmed at that point. They are also awaiting medication which I’m hopeful will improve concentration and reduce some of the behaviours that interfere with learning. That said, they are not the most motivated or mature so I’m not sure if I should be pushing them. Their dad and my parents think I’m too pushy and should just leave him alone. They seem to think that as I was an academic high flier I expect the same - this couldn’t be further from the truth. I wouldn’t be bothered if he never gets a degree but I am concerned he won’t achieve his potential as that potential is already capped in so much as School say they intervene if pupils aren’t on track for the target but otherwise don’t. Hearing other people’s stories really helps.it’s. It is not easy.

My DC have been similar in Y7. One ASC and the other ADHD. CAT tests just don’t work for them. I asked for predicted grades/ flight path to be changed as I didn’t want a ceiling of expectation for them.
DD, predicted 4s from her CATs in Y7, has just got 7-9 in mocks.

We also changed schools though!

OK so he will have an average score of 104 in SATs which is just in the low end of the middle band. So the target grades look about right for that.

But I agree with others that giving targets at this stage in secondary is really unhelpful. Lots changes in secondary and SATs scores often don't reflect reality.

I should think given the context around ADHD and if he copes OK with the increased demands in high school he could well outperform expectations and as he moves through school those targets will be adjusted.

‘ceiling of expectation’ captures exactly how I feel. It also crossed my mind that a school move might be a means to change the pathway. I fear it’s self fulfilling. And good for your DD. I hope the final Exams
go as well as the mocks.

It wasn’t the only reason for the change of school, but certainly contributed!

From his results it looks like he is significantly stronger in reading/English than in maths.

Bear in mind that the sats scores are effectively averaged to get target grades.

In practice with those says I would expect him to do better with wordy subjects - English, history, essay type subjects rather than maths.

Sciences is hard to tell because low maths attainment can hold someone back but much more in physics than biology and if the student is interested in science it's not such an issue.

In your shoes unless he is obsessed with science and maths (which seems unlikely given the scores) I'd focus on making sure he does well enough in the subjects where he is likely to be good enough to do /want to do A level.

Thanks for the insight. The school say they don’t change the targets during the 5 years. I did think that they were some sort of government measure but it sounds like schools vary on what, if anything they do, and how they do it?

Your DC's CAT scores are bang on average hence the 4/5 predicted grades. These can change.

They’re also dyslexic. The flight paths just put really low expectations on kids with SEND. Stops anyone having to try to raise their attainment, as that ‘all that’s expected’. Awful system.

The scores are SATs not Cats. School
dont/won’t share CAts just the reading age.

@OrtIrect
What do you mean schools can’t/ won’t share CATs? Of course they can!

I see, they SAY they can’t!

I meant just this one school - I don’t know what other schools do. I don’t really understand why they don’t as they share the reading age. I get the feeling, they don’t want too many questions.

Yeah so they are extrapolating using published estimates of KS2-KS4 progress. Obviously these are averages for a population and i don't think particularly helpful on an individual level (I'm a school data manager).

I think they might help from a strategy perspective & to give teachers an idea of what a child might be capable of but I actually don't agree with sharing these with children/parents at this stage in secondary.

For me they are definitely more of a Y10/Y11 piece of data, especially as (hopefully!) by then targets will be adjusted given what they know about a child.

Not all schools do this though and just give the basic estimate (published estimates will be zero progress), some schools will add +1 grade to give a level of challenge, other schools will ignore it other than to say the target can't be less than this ceiling & individualise them.

Secondary schools are measured on what is called progress 8.

This basically means that for each student a score is calculated based on a complicated measure which is for the purposes of this post is basically their best 8 GCSEs including English and maths.

They have a measure based on ks2 sats.

You then subtract them to get progress.

If the student has made normal progress you get 0. More than normal you get a positive number, less you get a negative.

All schools set target grades based on ks2 sats but they differ in how much progress they assume. A grammar would expect very strong positive progress and would set target grades based on this.

Very few schools will set targets of anything less than "normal" progress but some set very very high target grades.

It's always quite difficult with students who have either one very high score and one very low one, or have generally scores low in ks2 sats. This is because it might be because (for example) they moved to the country a year ago and their English still wasn't good. If they learn English well they can make amazing progress.

So... long story short you are best ignoring the target grades.

Thanks - what you say makes sense. I didn’t think 4/5 was average but you are (obviously!) correct it is. I guess I had a bit of a distorted view as it’s all the 9s that make the news! I honestly don’t need, expect or even want my child to follow my own educational path; I’m ok but I can definitely see that other life choices are just as good/better! It’s the low ceiling that seems so depressing and the fact that the targets set (if achieved) would mean no choice to do A levels in the area.

To put things in context... 45% of teenagers will get a 5 (or higher) in both English and Maths. Newspapers (and Mumsnet!!!) Make it look like everyone gets a string of 8s and 9s. Its not true at all.

Computer generated target grades shouldn't be shared with parents, particularly not as early as Y7, that's batshit.

However it is worth bearing in mind that a kid who gets average SATs scores tends to go on to get average GCSE scores. Your points about extra time and medication could well make a difference though and the probability distribution for GCSE outcomes from those scores is quite widely spread.

i think the school hopes to motivate kids but I’m not sure it does! I understand what you say about the distribution.