Year 7 target GCSE grades

[OrtIrect]

Looking for some advice. My summer born, recently ADHD diagnosed child has just started year 7 and their first report includes predicted GCSE grades as a ‘target’. They are all 4s and 5s. Basically, if they got these grades, in the area we live in, they wouldn’t have the option of a levels as they are not sufficient for the local 6th form college. It may well be that this isn’t the route for them anyway but their reading age (as measured by school) is over +2 years over his chronological age and they are already rated as one or two grades above target after less than one term based on actual attainment. I’m confused and concerned about how best to help him and how to manage his expectations as he talks about university. I have an uneasy feeling that he will be a ‘box check’ pupil ie on track for exceeding very modest targets. He is currently awaiting medication for the adhd. Can anyone advise or share similar experiences?

If you want to understand whether your child is really "average" you could always specifically request the CAT scores from the school. If they are unwilling to share, you can do a subject access request and they will have to give them to you!

Schools have variations but generally the scaled SATS scores are split up into bands of about 5. 100 is the average score. In average, a pupil who scores under 99 will end up with a 3 or less, 105-106 will get a 5, 107-112 a 6 and so on. Some schools will add extra challenge and add a grade on, others will want to boost their P8 score so will give the lower targets. Remember, a 5 is a C in old money so a perfectly respectable pass. Plenty of children also leapfrog their targets - they are not set in stone!

A 4 is a C in old money.

7s, 4s and 1s have been benchmarked against the old system so the same number of children get those grades as before.

Yes, I found these cat test predicted grades very odd. My son is predicted 5/6 in German, but he has never been taught it

Target grades are based on Y6 CATS. They are often over achieved - don't worry. They only really matter to the school as teachers' performance is judged on progress scores. Sometimes we get a student with a low target who is clearly going to exceed it by multiple grades and it's great because it balances those who have higher targets but perhaps have very low attendance etc and will struggle to meet them. Honestly don't worry.

If your dc does pass their GCSEs with 4s and 5s they can still get to university. BTechs are an alternative route that is just as valid as A levels.

We’re a bit further down the line - my son was Y6 during Covid so didn’t sit SATS but they did do Y7 entrance tests, the results of which were not shared with us. Subsequently in Y9 he’s been diagnosed and medicated for ADHD and assessed for extra time in exams. I do think we still have an issue with him languishing in third sets - school are quite happy he’s achieving his low targets, he’s ’top of his set’ so he thinks he’s fine but I think he’s still significantly underachieving for his actual potential in Y10. I’m sure his teachers are rolling their eyes as every parent thinks their child is marvellous and far from average. There is no other suitable state school, we are paying for additional tutoring but couldn’t afford to send him to private school. My older NT son has flown through the same school in top sets and got excellent results but I do think there is a real issue with DS2 being pigeonholed in Y7. The information on attainment from school is woeful - ‘ES’ for expected standard is as good as it gets, without any information if that’s heading for a 1, a 5 or a 9 at GCSE. They have to get 6+ at GCSE to be able to sit subjects at A level. I don’t know what else I can do but hope that mocks give him a reality check (they sit some this year that will be GCSE graded) that he needs to knuckle down and that it all comes together over the next 18 months.

This might help a little in terms of understanding grades however remember that the grade boundaries change every year with every cohort so no matter how well some children do there will always be some children forced into the grade 3 or below categories.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/infographic-gcse-results-2024/infographics-for-gcse-results-2024-accessible

As an anecdotal story, Ds was "predicted" grade 4/5 for English language and grade 5/6 for maths based on his SATs. A combination of great teachers, really great teachers, parental input but not a huge amount , a good friendship group and a can do attitude saw Ds exceed his predicted grades. Not all learning takes place in a classroom and with teachers like @noblegiraffe and (not on this thread) MrsHamlet, LolaSmiles, Clary sharing resources on MN that helped me as a parent Ds got an 8 in English language and a 9 in maths, in fact he got more 9s than 8s.

You cannot decide a child's future grades at 11. The predicted grades Ds had didn't stop school or him going beyond that. Yes they couldn't change his predicted 7 up to a 9 for maths in their system even though he never got below 90% on all practise papers. The school's progress 8 is high and it is across the board from low ability prior attainment to high ability. It is partly why we chose the school.

I wonder, do kids with average Sats scores go onto to get average GCSE's though because that's the expectation.

That’s good to know. It’s all about choice however, I’m happy for them not to go. A few friends have had kids fail years and/or drop out recently and run up huge debts for nothing. Of course there is the impact on mental health and wellbeing of this too so if it’s looking like my child will be marginal in terms of a degree, I’d rather start to manage their expectations now and explore other routes more thoroughly.

I went to an Oxbridge college in the late 80s from a non-traditional background and have only worked in a niche profession where a doctorate is a minimum qualification. I am aware I don’t have an up to date and rounded knowledge so I very much appreciate everyone sharing their experiences and views.

My DD's predicted grades in Y7 were way off what she actually achieved. 5 years is a long time in terms of the skills and knowledge your child will gain, not least the ability to revise and sit exams. It's a crazy system really. Talk to the school if you want some reassurance but try not to worry about it.

Thanks for sharing. My DH calls me a doom monger (and I am definitely a glass half full type of person!) but what you describe, the ‘pigeon holing’ and the perception of the teachers of you as a pushy parent, is what I fear too! I also note that your son is happy being top of the class. This resonates with me as well - my DH was really pleased that our child is exceeding their targets on their first report since joining the school!

Make sure you are clear on the difference between target and predicted grades. Your OP seems to put them both together.

Targets, as has been said, are a calculation based on SATs scores and normal progress. I think it is important to let parents know this is where the child is approximately at based on SATs scores so there are no big surprises at the start of year 11. They will not change throughout year 7-11 and are out of the school’s control. The student could, at any point, be performing way above or below target.

Predicted grades are based on whatever the school decides to base them on and shared with parents whenever the school chooses to in whatever format they think is best. They should change, and will get more accurate as the student approaches the end of year 11. These are the ones you should pay attention to if you want to know how they’re doing.

Only on average! These kinds of statistics and targets were designed to be applicable at a population level. As such, they are barely reliable as a way to predict or judge individual schools' performance, never mind individual students' performance.

Unfortunately, if measurement methods are created (however inaccurate, irrelevant or spurious), governments will use them as a stick, so schools will be forced to make what is measurable their priority, and will allow that to dictate how they predict, target-set and report. However, that doesn't stop good teachers from trying to get the best out of all their students, regardless of their targets!

Ignore! My boy had the same. He got 8s and 9s and 3 As at alevel (tjis year). We focussed on effort and self belief.
Honestly think predicted grades at this age is supremely unhelpful.

The school say they don’t change the targets during the 5 years

That doesn't make sense. In our school they review targets every year and from y 9 every term

My last school didn’t either. I distinctly remember banging my head against a brick wall with the HOD cos a kid with a target of a B had coursework at a C. He was a solid D kid. The coursework had to be an A, apparently. The kid knew he wasn’t capable, I knew he wasn’t capable. It was ridiculous and upsetting all round!

A target and a predicted grade aren't the same thing. It doesn't make any sense to change targets every term. Changing predicted grades makes more sense as they could have worked really hard or fallen behind.

Predicting grades from Y9 is a bit early though, they're going to be pretty finger in the air.

the target is always one grade up. My son is Set 2 ( out of 6) in first term at English and target is 8-9 at GCSE In Maths he is set 1 and target is also 8-9. Don't ask me why....but this is only year 7 first assessment + SATs results.

To give an idea of the calculations, they're based upon the average of just KS2 Reading and Maths - children of the same sex born around the same month with that score will have an expected level of progress, a higher and a very high, which is the mean grade of all exams they could be expected to sit, based upon all the other children who have had their progress measured over the last x years.

It's a broad brush that doesn't allow for illness, disability, ESOL, finding a spectacular level of ability at one particular thing, etc, because it is basically calculating the odds based upon the previous performance of thousands and thousands of children. So it's broadly accurate, but not down to the specific child.

This year and next, they're offering estimates based upon the standardised average CAT4 scores and IIRC, KS1 data where the school wants it included. It'll be interesting to see whether it's more accurate, as the Mean SAS takes into account verbal and non verbal, quantitative and spatial reasoning, compared to just Reading and Maths.

they review predicted grade every term from year 9. I didn't say that they change it every term. They change only if there was a consistent change for several terms. For some children it never changes.

It's a statistical forecast, thousands and thousands of kids re tracked by baseline tests.

Exactly. Statistical only at this age. Take it with a massive pinch of salt. At an individual level children can make massive leaps.

Honestly OP take them with a pinch of salt. Giving GCSE target grades in Y7 is absolutely ridiculous and very inaccurate - a lot changes between age 11 & 16!

For perspective, quite a few of the bottom set in DD’s Y7 year group have gone on to do
prestigious and competitive degrees like medicine and law, a few even went to Oxbridge. Equally I know of a surprisingly large amount of high flyers who crashed and burned - unfortunately DD included!

I feel your pain OP. DD was given very low target grades (Fisher Family something) - she didn't do SATs and did badly in the CAT test, so low that I never told her. Consequently the difference between her target grades and what she actually achieved at the end of year 10 is in some cases quite large. We have to put down her predicted grades on her 6th form application and the teachers have advised putting her mock results down, as everything just seems to be a nonsense.