Predicted grades lower than mock results?

[JusteanBiscuits]

This is a strange one. In three subjects, but sons predicted grade is lower than what he actually achieved in his mocks. As he is applying for selective 6th forms, predicted grades might be important. I'm not sure why predicted could be lower than actual attainment though?!

Is there a reason I'm not aware of that could cause this?

All sixth forms are selective in the sense that places are conditional on GCSE results. It would be a good idea to apply for one option that would admit him if results are in line with the predictions.
Although it seems unusual to have mock results higher than predicted grades, it could be a sign that this will continue for the actual exams which is good. However it may also be that the school has taken into account that some of the areas that haven't been tested yet are harder when making the predictions.

It could depend on a lot of things - off the top of my head:
Some teachers predict cautiously
The mock was easier than the final exam will be (omitted some tricky elements for example)
The teacher feels for whatever reason (perhaps based on class work too) that the lower predicted grade is more realistic
Students were suppported beforehand eg the Eng lit esssy was a question done in class a month before

I agree it’s unusual tho. What sort if disparity? And what subject?

I wouldn’t worry too much about sixth forms as IME (tho this doesn’t include very selective ones as none are round my way) they are interested above all in GCSE grades achieved.

Sorry, I should have said very selective!

Predicted is only one grade lower in only 3 subjects, but it just seems strange and I don't want to bother the teachers unnecessarily, but one of the schools prioritises free school meals etc, and so high predicted grades are likely to be really important for his application.

He has applied for the 6th form at the school he is at which he will get into, but he wants to go to a more academic school which will push him harder and offer opportunities he won't get at his current school.

And do you know that that school offers places based on predicted grades? I would contact them and see if that is so. And are the PGs he has too low to be offered a place?

The predicted grade will have been generated by data from KS3. Your current results mean the teaching is going very well!

Your DS should be able to put down current assessed grade on his 6th form applications, too.

Is the predicted grade actually based on his mocks, or some computer generated figures based on SATS/entry tests in Year 7/a random number generator?

If you want the predicted grade for a sixth form application, you need to ask for one that is based on current attainment.
(Not even sure that sixth forms even check predicted grades tbh; so he could probably put anything down).

The final criteria for entrance (as he doesn't meat any others - child in care, free school meals etc) is

1. applicants with the highest levels of predicted attainment, i.e. applicants will be ranked by the mean average GCSE score of their best 8 GCSEs (predicted or attained).

Current year 11 didn't sit SAT's due to lockdown!

I need to email and find out how they do predicted grades actually

Is the school incentivised not to predict higher grades to avoid losing their best students to other 6th forms?

I teach English so this won’t be the same as all subjects.

Reasons for a lower predicted grade than mock grade (for me) include:

• If they have only sat one paper (e.g. paper 2 for language is much harder than paper 1)
• Class work/general work ethic (mocks are often less intense than the real exams - only half the papers, well spread out exams etc)
• Level of scaffolding/help (e.g. if we revise Lady Macbeth for two lessons and then - who knew! - the mock question is on Lady Macbeth) I can tell who has just parroted back my words and who has engaged with the character/theme fully.
• Deliberately avoiding a challenging text/question in the mock to enable all students to access it.

I can 100% guarantee no teacher is under predicting in order to keep any student at their school. We love it when they stay for 6th form and wish them well if they decide to spread their wings.

Also, clarify whether predicted grades are teacher predicted or ‘computer algorithm’ predicted. The first is a professional opinion based on a variety of factors and the second is immovable (based on prior attainment). It’s what schools get assessed against and beyond their control.

Ah @DrFosterWentToGloucester23 you more or less agree with me.

I was coming from an MFL perspective (which is why I wondered what subjects), where we perhaps would not have covered all topics by now so it might not be a full paper; or yes, I have tailored the translation (hard element) to be on a topic we covered recently.

Op I think the suggestion to include recent mock grade in your sixth form app is a good one.

It's almost definitely that the mock tested certain areas only and there is more to do for real. An equivalent 'grade" isn't really the same as doing it all in one go.

We sometimes set only section a or b of one paper (when there are two). This means 3/4 of the qualification are still uncertain. But if I know a child can do well on one skill, and less well in another, I'm not going to forecast that they'll come out overall as if their strongest area is representative across the whole course.

Even if a child is roughly evenly matched, it's still harder to turn over and carry on for as long again without a break than it is to just sit what's set for mocks.

@JusteanBiscuits is this a school sixth form that you're applying to, or a stand-alone sixth form? If the former, then the admissions policy is illegal because predicted grades are subjective (meaning you'd have a strong appeal case if your child's actual grades were higher and you could demonstrate you missed out on a place unfairly). But if the latter, then unfortunately they don't have to conform to the admissions code.

Standalone. Yes.

I teach a subject that has a coursework element as well as exam so a student in my subject might get a 7 for example, in their mock but if their coursework was currently lower than a 7 standard I might give them a predicted grade that is lower. I tend to speak to students where that is the case though so they understand because it does look strange.
At my school we give students 'college grades' for their sixth form applications that are 'what they'll get if everything goes brilliantly'.
Also agree with other suggestions that mock exams are sometimes easier because they only cover certain topics/aren't all papers/students have been guided to revise particular topics etc.

DD's predicted grades were generated in Y7 based on data from primary (in lieu of SATs). Some teachers update them occasionally, others don't. So she has for example a predicted 7 in one subject where she consistently gets 9s, including in her mocks. I haven't challenged it as it doesn't really matter - local sixth forms aren't selective beyond meeting minimum grade requirements. In your situation though I'd raise it with school.

Those shouldn't be called 'predicted' grades. They are minimum target grades, i.e. the grades she needs to get for the school to be able to show the DfE it is doing a satisfactory job. A good school will give raise a child's internal target grades above the minimum targets if they consistently achieve or beat them.

@JusteanBiscuits in your position I would tell the sixth form that your school doesn't provide formal grade predictions, only minimum targets, and send them the mock grades instead. Schools aren't obliged to provide predictions or references for sixth form applications to other institutions.

Target grades are different from what's the forecast/prediction. One is the aim and the other is the likely outcome.

Exactly. That was my underlying point. It sounds like that school was providing target grades and (presumably) calling them predictions.

I would email each of the 3 teachers to say (politely) that the predicted grade is X which is lower than the mock grade y and ask if this is a mistake. This happened to my child re one subject and the teacher confirmed it was a mistake and corrected the predicted grade. My child did get the higher grade in the actual GCSE so the amended prediction was correct. I only bothered to query it because, as in your case, it did possibly matter what the predicted grades were as my child was applying elsewhere.

Are these teacher predicted grades or the once calculated from their end of primary SATs/ KS3 achievements? I'd check that first and then talk to the teachers if it is going to effect his applications to 6th form - they might have to put the data predictions rather than their personal predictions if that makes sense.

I've emailed two of the teachers but not heard back yet.

One, for example, was Biology. Predicted 7, received in mock is 9. And Computer Science. Predicted 7, received an 8 in the mock.

I’m surprised if a sixth form destination requires PGs of all 8 and 9 to offer a place tbh. They’d struggle for students surely? Only a very small % of 16yos get those grades. I wouldn’t worry, unless of course they have told you that they do?