Predicted grades lower than mock results?

[JusteanBiscuits]

This is a strange one. In three subjects, but sons predicted grade is lower than what he actually achieved in his mocks. As he is applying for selective 6th forms, predicted grades might be important. I'm not sure why predicted could be lower than actual attainment though?!

Is there a reason I'm not aware of that could cause this?

It's a very selective sixth form and admission criteria (after things like free school meals, looked after children etc) is by your average predicted grade. It's very over subscribed every year and very competitive!

My understanding is that grammar schools are allowed to have very high entry grades for sixth form entry because they are academically selective throughout the school.

It's not a grammar school. It's a standalone selective sixth form academy (so it doesn't need to follow the national admissions code).

Yes I understand they are competitive, but fewer than 1000 students gained all 9s in 2019 (the last non covid year, arguably). I can’t imagine the numbers gaining all 8s and 9s (hard to google sadly) would be multiple thousands. Presumably a sixth form college has an intake of several hundred, from the local area. That’s all I meant.

But this is why using "predicted" grades for oversubscription criteria is a problem. Many more students will be predicted straight 9's than will actually get them.

OP, do the criteria say that applicants will be re-ranked based on actual grades in August, or not? If they are, then its fine, but if not then its an issue. (There is a whole thread about another school that does the latter).

It's London, so the "local" area is very different, and much wider than a normal local area.

No, it's predicted. Their "minimum criteria" is 7's but 8's in the A-levels you want to take. 50% of cohort is targeted for disadvantaged children, and then the rest is done on predicted grades. The school in question is London Academy of Excellence

OK well I would still be impressed if on an annual basis they could find 240 16yos from a local enough area to get there who got all 8s and 9s at GCSE. Seriously. In DS2's year of 200+ at his leafy comp only a handful of students did that.

The website says you need eight GCSEs at 7 or over so I think you are worrying unneccesarily tbh. If 7 is his lowest PG then that sounds great to me.

@clary you are misunderstanding the issue. The ranking for the oversubscription criteria is done by predicted grades, not actual grades. One of our local grammar schools does the same and every year they are oversubscribed in the most popular subject combos by applicants who are predicted straight 9's. They don't have to actually get their predicted grades. Once they have an offer, they just have to meet minimum grade criteria, which are lower.

At least one other school sixth form (Twyford) has been pulled up by the schools adjudicator for doing this, because the subjectivity of using predicted grades is a breach of the admissions code. But stand-alone sixth forms don't have to comply with the code.

The 7 is to encourage disadvantaged children. Most kids who get in, without the disadvantaged criterias, get at least 8 9's.

Remember how many kids are in London. And this is one of the top 5 sixth forms nationally so very popular.

Okie dokie then I guess you need to chase up with school and ask them to amend his PGs to his latest results. Or you could flag it to the college in his application that his latest mocks show higher grades than his PGs. The website says "show evidence of" possible grades.