Effect of VAT on admissions - any intel?

[BarqsHasBite]

We are applying for secondaries for DS, main target is an independent school but he’s also tried for a partially selective state school.

Am wondering if anyone has any intel on the effect on admissions numbers of Labour’s VAT on school fees policy?

I went to the open morning for our target school and having attended the same event last year numbers did seem down. In previous years it has been fully booked, but I’d say today the hall was 3/4 full at most. However, another nearby indy was also having an open day so that could have been a reason other than VAT.

On the state school side of the coin: my friend’s son sat the entrance exam for QE Barnet and she estimated there were 4,000 boys sitting it over two days - if so that’s up around a third on last year!

Does anyone else have any actual or anecdotal insights please?

The number of boys sit QE this year is no where near 4000, estimated 3000-3300 at most, a small increase compared to last year

It might be too early to tell. Many schools haven't finalised their plans (they wait for the details of the legislation), so as to allow an informed budgeting on the part of families. Applicants might still sit the 11+ for private schools, even if they are most likely to choose state school in the end. Independent schools will probably find challenging this year to estimate the ratio between offers and acceptances. They might do a longer waiting list. But whatever effect the increase has on the sector, it will show come deposit time. An interesting year.

You don’t need to quote the opening post.

Looking at Y7 admissions this September. At our school they are about 10 students down vs previous years. The demographic is definitely more wealthy than in previous years (blingy cash).

Another local school is down by 30 students, mostly caused by children coming up through their prep going elsewhere.

Handful of timewasters ensuring that children who actually need an in year admission and are out of education for various reasons miss out on the place that should have gone to them straight away. They don't deserve to have to wait for weeks or months to get their place so that privileged people can try to make a point.

My child has started at state selective sixth form. She was told that they had the highest number of entries ever, and that those that got an external place are the most academic the school has ever had. She was at a private school and of her friendship group of 12, only 4 have stayed at a private school.

ISC are currently collecting data but in all honesty it won't be shown until Sept 25. Lots of anecdotal stories including 15% down on Yr 7 intake at DDs school

@hypenews you might well be right about QE Boys in that a leap of a third would be huge/unlikely.

My friend said when she collected he son there were parents lined up in 12 separate colour-codes lines, each with upwards of 100 parents, but that could be for anywhere between 50 and 100+ boys per queue I suppose. There were 2 sessions per day across 2 days - I’d be surprised if that equated to only 3000 to be honest unless some of the sessions were smaller. Last year they had 3,100 applicants, so maybe 3,400 odd this year. Will just have to await the official stats next year.

I saw on one school’s social media that they still had spaces available the day before for its open day. In the past it was fully booked weeks, if not months, in advance. It will be an interesting year...

Two families in my friendship groups are now moving to areas to be in catchment of good state. Previously they were looking at private.

Personally I think this is great! Sounds like an amazing state sixth form, which is how it should be.

Don’t forget to factor in a declining birth rate into any assumptions. That will also hit figures.

I’ve noticed that DD’s school is really (really) pushing their open days on socials!

There was a thing in the Telegraph about Buckinghamshire having had loads of applications for state schools and telling someone they should prove they can’t afford the private school any more. It’s behind a paywall but there’s something here about it: https://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/24569930.council-asks-mum-prove-school-finances-ahead-new-vat/

Sometimes Open days are staggered with times due to match clashes and other Open days.

Looking at sixth forms in London : families who had never considered moving their dc for sixth form have now registered for all the local state and grammar sixth forms locally (open evenings now booked out for weeks in advance). These sixth form entry points go on gcse results so they will be much tougher to get into now as all the privately educated dc we know, newly targeting them, are on track to achieve straight 8s and 9s. Meanwhile the private sixth form open evenings we’ve been to have been much less crowded than in previous years and were really keen to impress (having been through the same ringmarole 5 years ago I can compare)

This is awful.

This was our experience last year.

I have no intel on private schools, but I know admission to local (S London) state schools is at 75%of capacity due to families moving out of London and falling birth rates. I think private schools are being very bullish about the VAT introduction, but I am already seeing that some are absorbing part of it and passing on around half. Ultimately, they are not going to want a significant dip in admissions as they are profit-driven, so we may see more schools holding fees at current levels or absorbing part of the increase to ensure they are full.

I'm seriously considering an independent school for my DC, which is a thing that I never would have done in the past. It's purely because the state sector has become so bad in recent years due to underfunding and lack of staff.

I feel quite encouraged to see that there might be more space in the independent schools, but I'm really perplexed that people might have been running so close to the edge financially that they can't manage an extra 20%.

It’s a very difficult one for private schools to tread - absorbing VAT = cutting costs (and/or cutting back on bursaries and community support I suppose). If they cut back too much and eg increase class sizes or reduce all the extras parents will start to question whether it’s worth paying for at all, or if they might as well switch to state.

But if they don’t absorb the VAT then some parents will inevitably remove their kids or not send them there in the first place because they’ve been priced out.

Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

I think the big one will be students dropping out of independent schools after the end of year 11 in summer 2025 to go to state sixth forms

@mugglewump most independent schools near us are charities so they’re not “profit driven” as there are no shareholders or owners to return value to. They are, however, absolutely fixed on maintaining fee revenue so that they can keep on all staff and maintain the facilities.

@SchoolyStuff the VAT on fees for one year for two dc at our school will be £10k which if you’re paying tax and NI at the very highest rate means earning an extra £20k per year to cover it; over seven years that’s an extra £280k (before inflation - and fee inflation often outstrip rises in income if you’re a doctor or lawyer as dh and I and many of our friends are). That kind of money isn’t small change. And for those of us who do have pension savings that we can dip into to pay would rather not as we see it as a vindictive tax that won’t actually end up improving state education. I have no problem paying tax - I pay a shedload of it - but I don’t much fancy paying it to appease Bridget Philipson’s personal vendetta.

@bravefox absolutely spot on : they did a straw poll at DD’s independent year 11 and it’s gone from 10% to 90% applying for local grammar sixth forms. They won’t all get in of course but that percentage change is astonishing