How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

[Macaroons]

One of the headline Starmer kept talking about is charging VAT for private schools. This would make private school fees unaffordable for many who are not mega-rich, pushing more students back to the state education system. Would the state schools be able to take in the extra students? Many schools are already over-subscribed, are there enough schools, classrooms and teachers to take in the extra students? My fear is that the extra VAT they get is not going to be enough to provide education for more students under the state system, as well as the additional 6500 teachers they claim they can provide.

Some of the biggest issues with this policy are actually going to be for state school parents.

Increased competition for places at 11+ and 6th form, especially in grammars and competitive 6th forms. We've seen an increase this year for DD's comp to 6 GCSEs including English & Maths at Grades 7-9 to apply for a place and they only have enough places for 25% of current Y11.

Increased competition will mean that if you get a 6 rather than a 7 in that 6th GCSE you'll be looking for a new school, leaving behind friends and the environment you know. Last year they only asked for 6 at grades 6-9.

The children who are most likely to move will be the very able who will go for the grammar places, and the SEN kids whose parents would not normally have considered private education and who failed to get an EHCP in place.

Given the current situation with SEN in state schools, adding a load more SEN kids is not something that any parent should be happy about. SEN kids with no proper support is not good for anyone's education.

Wouldn't surprise me if there were fewer private pupils in grammar school areas

( well at least private school pupils as opposed to private tutored )

Where I live the only secondaries will be some very, very poor state schools. There are some really good ones, but they are massively over subscribed. There is a little more flex at primary but not so much in the good schools. I also imagine children will have to travel a long distance. At the private school I teach in we have received lots of children from some of these schools because they just haven't thrived there. Within a term or 2 of a different setting, it is notable how much improved they are. I guess only time will tell how it all pans out.

People don't realise, those people who work hard to put their kids into private school will not just let their kids go to any state school. They will look for the best state option and move within the catchment area. Already know people doing this. That will in effect push out lower income families as house prices go up. Furthermore, tons of people saying they should just cut this and that so they can afford the VAT. that's fine. and people will do that. Just as long as these people also realise it will just hit other parts of the economy, like small businesses when these parents do start cutting back.

Almost all parents who are sending their kids private will continue to do so

At any price

Even if they have to cancel their Sky subscription for a bit 😨😢

This only matters for those going into Y7 though so won't be an immediate issue.

Some of the biggest issues with this policy are actually going to be for state school parents

I'm actually crying at that! I think by far the biggest problem is people with plenty of money having to pay a bit more for the luxury they have. Good forbid they can't have that new jag or holiday in the maldives.

My friend's son is privately educated. They are not 'wealthy' by any means but they have enough to pay the VAT and guess what: they are OK with paying it because they think it's fair! They have a very simple life, small house, an old car, no flash holidays.

That actually works out at slightly under the national average then. There are parts of London where 30%+ are in private and Edinburgh has a quarter of pupils in private. In London, the geographical areas are probably pretty small though.

why only Y7?

That won't work for in year applications. If there's no school place they will be offered the next closest school with places. If they reject that school the lea have done their job they will have to go to the bottom of the waiting list like everybody else.

It doesn't seem to be a problem around here. In the 3 state high schools my kids have attended, 2 have spaces.

Most of the private kids near me transfer to a big state college for 6th form

In a nearby town a primary is closing because there aren't enough kids.

understand that but they will just wait til there are spaces in the best state school. They will just pay the extra VAT temporarily until spaces in their desired school comes up. Thus, still pushing out lower income families to the best state schools who wont be able to afford the housing within catchment areas.

We'll be prepared to wait years then 😆 people don't just leave the best state schools. And if they do their will be loads of people on the waiting list before you.

For the people who will swap to state for 6th form. Round here priority is given to students already in the school. For 6th form colleges priority is given to students already in the academy trust. So good luck with that, you'll need it if all places are taken with existing pupils

Some are oversubscribed, others have spaces. So there will be space for children moving over to state in September. Just not at the preferred schools.

Exactly. People who seem to think they will get into the best state schools, or go on a waiting list and expect a place to suddenly became available are quite frankly kidding themselves

They will be ranked on the schools' waiting lists according to the oversubscription criteria for the individual school. So some will enter the list near / at the top for whichever school, just like any other applicant may. It still won't get them a place if none exists, though.

Agreed. Many state school parents actually care about their children’s education as well, so won’t sit idly by whilst other parents try and swoop in to take school places.

I don't think people are saying that state school parents don't care. But primary schools are done by catchment area. If you can't afford to live next to the best schools you can't go there. It's not realistic to think there will be no impact. It will hurt the poorer families being priced out of such areas. Or families who can't afford the tutoring fees to get into grammar schools. Grammar and selective schools will just get more competitive and it will just be a competition on who can spend most on tutors!

There are some really bright kids in state schools who don't require tutors to get into grammar schools. Many kids are naturally bright, even more so than private kids, shock horror I know this is a shock to you 🙄😆😏

Sw6 - our primary is at 50% capacity but it will be too diverse for many, 2 closest faith schools that are go to for white parents are at 80% capacity as well. No problem to get a secondary school place either.
In fact I don't know any area in SW London where any child was left without a primary or secondary school place.

And private school kids will finally have some real completion around school places for grammar. They will finally realise money carnt buy intelligence.

I live in a grammar area, only one private school within 15-20 miles and it's known for taking the children not bright enough to get into the grammars even with a lot of private tutoring, who have wealthy parents, so I don't think it'll make much difference here.
What is interesting is that the grammars have a two level entry system, so if you live within qualifying postcodes (not wealthy ones, with some having high levels of socioeconomic deprivation) you just need to pass the 11+ the pass mark isn't exceptionally high. If you live out of priority catchment (in the richer less diverse bits) you apply for the spaces not taken by local children and have to generally score in the top 5% to be offered a place.

Anecdotally at secondary year 10 there are lots of places but only in the least good state school. The popular ones are full. I know because my friend has had to move her Dd from private school suddenly so has trodden this path. She will take the worst state school place.

I really think an influx of children from private schools could really help turn these schools around and make a better education for all children, not just those whose parents had the money/inclination to send them to private school.

Schools benefit from a mix of kids/parenting types and a different mix could attract more teachers and other parents to those schools that could make all the difference.

We applied to our local “outstanding” popular state secondary, that was closest to us - put it is so oversubscribed that we haven’t been offered a place even now nearing the end of year 7 - but actually the school we did get has a less good reputation, but it’s based on prejudice and where the school is located. My son has received tremendous support there and I wouldn’t move him now even if a place did come up at the popular one.

Even schools rated Inadequate have dedicated staff wanting to make a positive difference to children’s lives so I actually think more kids coming into the state system is a good thing and there are the places for them - they may just have to accept it’s not the school with the best rep.