Predicted gcse what do they mean?

[Biscuitinsanity]

My year 8 child is at a grammar school.

Last school report showed mainly 4 and 5s at the end of Key stage 3, so end of year 9. So this is target grades.

I understand from other parents that means 6 and 7s and there is 1 8 at GCSE level. If he keeps on the same path?!

His current percentage type marks ranged from low 50 Percent to high 80's in percentage terms.

So what I want to know is that in broad terms is that all ok?

Secondly, is this flight path thing set in stone or more typically could he move around and change sets.

Should I be asking the school how he compares with his peers or to the average marks? What is the point of it? Does this pigeon holing in a box worms?9

I guess I am saying if predicted grade 4 and 5 at end of year 9 - so that means grade 6 and 7 predictions at end of year 11? Is that an ok place to be?

At the grammar school, my child is struggling to manage all the tests at this stage, I think in part because some subjects have a lot of homework and some not so much, but either way he does not always have time to revise properly, as there is always homework to complete. Also he may not feel he is doing that well because perhaps there are a lot of bright children around so may compare himself to others.

i am not from the UK so struggle to really see the GCSE markers?

Each school has their own system for this, so what people tell you online may not be the most useful.

I would suggest contacting your child's form tutor to ask for some explanation of the target grades and predicted GCSE outcomes. The school is unlikely to share comparisons (even anonymised) with other children though.

Often, target grades are generated from SATs, so they do not change but that doesn't mean your child can't exceed them!

Does the school set expectations of how much time should be spent on homework/revision each week? And if so is your child meeting this but still not able to do all the homework?

Different schools use different grading before GCSE so you need to know what they are using.

No it’s not cast in stone it’s a predictor. It will be affected by things including how much work your son does.
Yes in a grammar school some kids will be lower performing, this identity and pressure can be difficult for some children.

In my child's school gcse predictions is for end of year 11. But as previous poster said ask school. They might have some booster classes to help those who might need it, I'm sure I read somewhere about these

It’s an ok place to be yes - your child is predicted to more than just pass their GCSEs so should be able to do A levels if they continue the same path. And they can definitely move beyond their current predictions. Talk to the school about it but also try not to compare him too much to other children at that particular school. It’s a grammar so they will probably all be above average high achievers.
Most unis don’t worry too much about GCSEs with a handful of exceptions like LSE & Oxford. A level grades are far more important.
Grades 4& 5 are equivalent to the old GCSE grade C so he is on track to be able to pass his GCSEs by the end of year 9.

Hairykitty your post resonated. It definitely says at the end of Key stage 3. So are predicted 6s some 7s and 1 predicted 8 an OK place to be more generally? So if you had children with these marks now you just keep an eye on work and say they are doing fine and doing great?

i do have concerns with the school. My child does high quality homework but this does not always translated to higher quality test results. I am concerned he does not have enough time to revise and recall. Nor does he have enough time to reflect on what he can do better as the pace of lessons moves on. He does do a lot of extra things outside school but I feel he is too young to stop doing these types of things like sports etc.

i am also concerned that he is trying to report results to me in ways like " I got 60 percent but it was 5th joint second" and so on. " I got x but person Y only got 3 marks more" If he does get top of the class in a test he seems happy about this. So I am getting concerned that he sees himself in comparison with others already. Also there is the issue where I feel the school pile on work.

i don't particularly like the comparison aspect. I would rather he be thinking this is what I know if I get something wrong I just don't know it yet. ... but I feel the competitive element of the school is not particularly positive overall.

i need to ask the school for a better explanation.

Thank you for all your posts. Very helpful.

yes I have it in mind to speak to school about homework. 2 subjects seem to be an hour a night. Other key subjects like science are as hoc and hardly any homework for say maths. But then there will be a series of tests all grouped together while there is also lots of homework to do.

we try help him organise the homework but even I look at it and think it is a lot of work to get through. There is also homework each holiday break apart from summer.

Sometimes I feel with some subjects they expect lots of independent homework.

i am also concerned that he is trying to report results to me in ways like " I got 60 percent but it was 5th joint second" and so on. " I got x but person Y only got 3 marks more" If he does get top of the class in a test he seems happy about this. So I am getting concerned that he sees himself in comparison with others already. Also there is the issue where I feel the school pile on work.

Is he doing this to compare, or to give you some context as to what it means?

If he came home and said he got 60% in a test, how would you know if this was good, bad or indifferent? If you know that it was a high mark within a class (bearing in mind that this is a high ability class) then you have more of an understanding.

When you get to GCSE paper stage, what sounds like low percentages can translate to surprisingly high actual grades.

By and large you have to "ignore" actual marks at this stage and just look at effort and how well he is applying himself.

Whilst I agree with others that 6s and 7s as GCSE predictions are good grades, many grammar school students (depending on how selective the grammar school is) will get much better grades. So you really need to speak to teachers.

redskydelight I think he probably is trying to provide context. I know that often for some subjects the papers are GCSE papers but seem to be a part paper - rather than a full paper - maybe only covering what they have covered.

So it looks to me that it may not be a full paper but for History and Maths etc for example it will be GCSE questions on that unit topic.

i know he is in middle sets for maths and English. They said they set as too, middle and bottom.

But I also think he has identified the bright boys and trys to see if he is up with their marks.

i think I need to speak to school. In my mind he had good revision techniques year 7, and did well. This year the homework seems to take longer and so he simply does not have the required revision time. Also some teachers are better planners. Some will set tests with very little guidance /look ahead, when he has other activities on so he needs more time. Some seem to set tests "cold" with no warning. Other sets seem to get more revision detail and better briefing.

To top it all off the school journey is quite long, we want to move closer but the current economic situation means that plan is currently shelved. Some teachers set HW in a regular ordered way which helps him. Some will set a test with a broad remit and say study everything this term for a test coming up. So I do sense he is getting stressed trying to anticipate what is coming up. Even when I look at it it seems a lot.

The test focus is a concern because I wonder how he can focus on long term retention of material.

Don't discourage him from reporting 'but so and so only got Y%' that's really useful context for you.

Bluntly it sounds like he doesn't have enough time to revise. He does lots of extra curricular, and has a long journey. Something has to give here.

Yes maybe activities have to give but given he is only year 2 of secondary it seems a bit early to be dropping things he loves. Again the focus on UK and education may well be more demanding than we are used to.

The predictions are just that, best estimates.
Lots of schools manage to coax their pupils higher and this is a reflection of a good school.
If your son doesn't 'improve' from where he is now he'll still pass with decent grades.
It's not terrible to compare, as the boundaries between the grades are affected by the overall performance of pupils. Not at school level but overall.
Consistently is the key, homework can be a bit overwhelming, but not letting it pile up helps.
Grammar school is full of smart kids, so effectively your child might be thinking they are average, but are probably comparing themselves to kids who are broadly above average.
Sounds like he's in a good place for year 8.
DD's school didn't set streams (and only stream maths anyway) until year 9 and even then you can get be moved. She wasn't in top set, but the set she's in have turned out to be very similar in attainment anyway and are doing further maths.
She's year 11 now and a few kids have dropped the odd GCSE to help them focus on a slightly narrowed range of subjects.

It's very unlikely he will be taking even parts of GCSE papers in Year 8. Other than English, they simply won't have been taught any of the syllabus. I'd assume they are school assessments.

I agree reducing the school commute will be a huge factor - I used to have a long commute to school and I was exhausted simply on school and travelling. I'd personally (unless he's doing a lot) not want to drop activities. He should be doing something other than school!
Can he use the commute for revision?

Also worth understanding if the school has high expectations, or he puts expectations on himself. Whilst it's good practice if you revise if you go along, if a teacher is only giving 2 days notice (say) for a test, they may not expect them to do masses of revision, but just want to see how much they have understood s they went along.

thank you Beamur if I finding it a challenge to navigate at year 8 it seems worthwhile putting in work and research to get good study habits ready for year 11. Best of luck for your daughter's GCSE years.

I think some of the questions are gcse level, as they say gcse question on them. I agree some of the maths are foundation GCSE papers so not as difficult as he would be expected to do for GCSE? Or maybe they are marked to GCSE standard? I know he was told he did very well in one test because they said it was GCSE standard. But that is another good question for me to ask the school about.

Redskydelight he did used to study travelling in but as I gather other boys have dissuaded him from doing this and he did used to go in earlier to study. That may be the key reason he did better last year. I could see if we could look at the commute and see if he can avoid the disruptive boys to get some study in. But also sometimes now he probably has friends to chat too. Actually reflecting back he had some good habits last year that have slipped a bit and yes the commute is key. We very much want to move closer but financial pressure and the cost of living means those plans have been scuppered.

This has been a very useful thread. Any more revisions tips or ideas would be very welcome. Also screen use has increased so that is another factor. He was more disciplined last year. But I also feel that he is feeling the pressure of constant work and testing too.

I think they are predicted grades for the end of yr11. No-one is really working at Level 8 in Yr8.

I think - but may be wrong, that the foundation level GCSE cap at a certain level. So if you take Maths normal GCSE you can attain any grade up to 9, but the foundation is easier so is capped at 6 or 7? Which means more kids are able to work to a level to pass but it's not hard enough to merit the very top grades.
If he's getting a 6 on a foundation paper he's doing really well.
Year 8 is a brilliant time to learn good study skills. It's also really important to have down time, social time and other interests. DD has about an hour long journey to school, she travels with friends and they chat or listen to music. If a deadline is looming they do their homework 😄.

Capped at 5 for foundation so unless they are really weak avoid if you can.

wombatchocolate the grades are end of key stage 3 so is predicted 4 and 5 and the odd 6 grade - so at the end of Year 9. So I take that to extrapolate to 6 and 7 and the odd 8 at the end of year 11.

But I do think I need to check this with the teachers.

Yes, you do need to check. They normally only predict for the end of KS4 and don’t give you KS3 levels and then leave you to draw your own conclusions about what that could increase to 2 or 3 years later.

The thing to be aware of, is how these grades might impact GCSE option choices. Sometimes only top sets or certain predicted grades are offered single sciences or 2 languages etc.

Any predictions shouldn’t be a lid or ceiling on what can be achieved, but it’s also true that they might determine the set the DC is placed in and some sets will be given more teaching at the higher levels, especially in subjects like Maths which have different level papers. Although they might talk about students moving sets etc etc, it gets harder to move up in something like Maths. Higher sets move faster and cover more, so the gap can widen between sets and after a certain point, moving up isn’t really possible.

Always worth querying anything that isn’t clear and reading the info sent out multiple times.

This stuff is all new to me. My son is in year 7, in January I was told, in every subject, what his attainment and predictions for the end of this year 7 are - he's young and not a genius so not even any of the predictions are in strong GCSE pass territory. In which year do you think a school would start making predictions about year 11, i.e. proper GCSE performance?

Schools use algorithms to make predictions based on SATS results pretty much as soon as your child starts Year 7. So if your DS doesn't have predictions that are GCSE passes I'm guessing he was below expected/just about expected in SATS?

I wouldn't expect you would get sensible GCSE predictions based on your child's actual work/attitude/effort in class until at least Year 10. I tell my children to ignore the auto-generated ones.

I spoke to my dd's teachers about this, as her predicted results were much lower than expected, especially after she's been moved up in some area to a more advanced class. I was told that the predicted results were off the back of workings over 6 months ago, and are exactly what it says 'predicted' and don't actually have any bearing on how the student is performing now. Kind of defeats the object if you'd ask me.

I believe my son's predictions may have been based off an assessment, as this is because his year 6 did not sit sats. Parents were told not to get their child to study for them. However, what I found out by asking other parents about these predictions, and also this was was mentioned by my son was that some children really studied for the assessments and so for high achievements and higher predicted GCSE predictions.

From this thread I think I need to go back to ten school. I believe he will be expected to do separate sciences but I do sense, like wombat chocolate inferred, that my son's peers in the top sets are getting more focussed teaching and briefing about test papers. He tends to get quite a few substitute teachers.

Anyhow I still feel uneasy about the whole set up but need to think how I best support my child navigate the revision and homework demands and make sure he applies himself without losing confidence.

It sounds like your school is doing something similar to ours. They will predict an attainment level at the end of each year, and then correlate this to a target GCSE grade, expecting an improvement of one grade per year. For example, if they predict an attainment of 4 at the end of Y8, this would be on track for a 7 at GCSE. Every child has a target GCSE grade for maths, English and "others" (very accurate...) based on their Y6 SATs, or Y7 CATs for covid cohort. In my example above, if the child has a target GCSE grade of 6 in maths, a 4 at end of Y8 would be shown as above expectations; but if they have a target grade of 8, it would be below expectations.

Having had a child go through GCSEs now I found the whole thing totally irrelevant to what she actually got at the end of Y11!