Predicted gcse what do they mean?

[Biscuitinsanity]

My year 8 child is at a grammar school.

Last school report showed mainly 4 and 5s at the end of Key stage 3, so end of year 9. So this is target grades.

I understand from other parents that means 6 and 7s and there is 1 8 at GCSE level. If he keeps on the same path?!

His current percentage type marks ranged from low 50 Percent to high 80's in percentage terms.

So what I want to know is that in broad terms is that all ok?

Secondly, is this flight path thing set in stone or more typically could he move around and change sets.

Should I be asking the school how he compares with his peers or to the average marks? What is the point of it? Does this pigeon holing in a box worms?9

My child has a 6 predicted for maths at the end of key stage 3 so I assume that is end of year 9.

The entire set up is rather a nightmare.

But how does this translate to regular testing.

Can I assume 90 percent and about is a 9
80 percent and above is a 8
70 percent and above is a 7

is that what I can assume?

I think I need to speak to the school.

But if this is how I am feeling now how on earth do people cope with the actual gcse years and exams. It seems so anxiety inducing

You can't assume anything at all from percentages. It entirely depends on the difficulty of the test. At my dc's school they publish the average percentage for end of year exams in KS3 and they range from about 50-90%!

Unless of course your school has a specific system that links percentages to grade levels but I think it's very unlikely.

In Maths GCSE, 70% will sometimes get you Level 9.

Internal school exams could be easy/hard or anywhere in between and the percentage cannot be correlated to GCSE levels.

Quite simply you need to ask for more info to understand where child is now and what they are on track towards.

my daughter is year 8 at a Grammar school - they gave them all predicted gcse grades at the end of last year. So agree that they all must do different things. They also CTL (commitment to learning) grades which the school are very keen on which I think is good so how they are applying themselves, whatever their actual mark is. I like to be given the context as it helps me understand where she is - although obviously only within her own class.

his SAT's were good (not stellar), the predictions do seem to be for this year only - they talk about a 'EOY7 target' and nothing else.

This is where schools all do their own thing and it seems that your school has invented its own system. It makes no actual sense to define an end of Year 7 target in terms of GCSE grades. You'll need to check with them.

Some schools say working at 7 in yr7 and 8 is on track to get a 7 in gcse later. Others grade it against gcse standard and so would be maybe 5. Cats and especially Sat's are important as when teachers plan at gcse they re measured on progress so the better your kids yr6 Sat's the higher their targets and the more likely teachers will push them to achieve. A bad yr6 cats may not be representative and if your kid isn't motivated and the data says they should get a 4 teachers may be ok with them getting a 4 and pushing those in the class who should be on a 6 yo meeting that. I am a teacher, obviously you help each child to achieve their best but big picture cohort data is also used.

No you can't assume this, and no-one on this thread will be able to tell you because each school will set their own grade boundaries for internal tests.

I don't understand why you're so reluctant to speak to the school, and would rather go with people's guesses online- because that is all they are, guesses. Every school does this sort of thing a bit differently, so you really need to speak to the school.

How long is long for his commute, and are you sure it is worth it?

I will be speaking to the school. But the responses here are helpful. To put it in context I am not from the UK so I don't even have a sense of 5 and 6 are good enough grades etc

Unfortunately due to train issues and cut backs the journey is much longer and much less reliable this year. So what uses to take an hour can take 1.5 hours one way.

And it would be good is school provided more information as part of the joining process and as part of the reporting process.

I have asked the school previously but the is thread helps give me more context.

For example; I can see why you want your child to perform well at Sats and Cat tests now. Previously I was led to believe these didn't really matter in the grande scheme of things. They clearly do. I am also concerned my child may be moved down sets. What else is apparent is many students have tutors. To my that signifies that the homework even in key stage 3 may be too demanding.

It shouldn't matter how well your child does in SATS and CATS. Good schools should judge a child on their actual performance, not their artificial predicted grade. If your child is performing well but stuck in a lower set, you should be raising this.

I think the tutor situation comes about because many children are tutored to get into grammar school, and parents then need to keep tutoring to help them keep up.
That said, your grammar sounds particularly pressurised. In your circumstances (your child is seemingly struggling and has a ridiculous commute) I'd seriously be considering whether it is the best place for him.
5 and 6 are good solid grades at GCSE and will be good enough to satisfy the ubiquitous criteria of 5/6/8 GCSEs for sixth form study/jobs.
However, they are low by grammar school standards. In fact I suspect the grammar school may want your child to get 7s in potential A Level studies to enable them to stay on.

I will speak to the school. But if predicted 4,5 and 6 are end of key stage 3 then I see that as 6, 7, and 8 at GCSE. Most of the grades are therefore as I read it probably a 7 at gcse.

i am reading it as though they are expected to go up by 1 grade per year.

Tutors seem to be used every for very bright children as well as more regular ones. I just didn't expect that! Yes the travelling time is not ideal but children do travel. I hope we can eventually move closer.

And I have tried to raise this in year 7 but reporting seems more positive at the end of the year 7, so whenever it was raised I was told he was a good student. Now I feel I need to get to grips with the system.

Hi all! My son’s offered a conditional place at an independent grammar school for sixth form as an academic scholar. He needs to get an average gcse grade of 7.5 which, after two mocks so far, he’s more than passed. He wants to study maths. The school wants a 9 for him to include maths to his subjects as they said most students including their homegrown ones would get maths. At the moment, he got an 8 on both mocks. I worry that if he gets an 8, he won’t be able to get a place for the subject. He’s in a vey good state school now. Most of his gcse’s are predicted a 9 including maths. My son said that he’ll get a 9 so I have to trust him. He’s done further maths gcse already and he got a grade 8. He’s also doing additional maths now. He wants to study (well with my influence) economics at uni and one of the requirement subjects for the course is maths. He originally wants to do business studies/management. In case of a grade of 8, is there a possibility for the school to still offer him a place to take maths? Me and my wife don’t want him to miss the opportunity to study at an independent school and also a good look for him being a scholar. He’s actually looking forward to it. But we also don’t want him to restrict his options at uni. At his school now, we are sure they will offer him a space for maths and any subject he wants. But the grammar school is still one-twon tier higher. I guess I just worry too much. Thanks all.

@mrk2024 I'd suggest starting your own thread.
By way of a short answer
-the school can insist on whatever grades they like
-maths A Level is hard
-I'd be cautious that you are overinfluencing him and not allowing him to make his own choices

He wants to study (well with my influence)

🤨

So he's on target for 8s and 9s and will be offered his choice of A levels either this current school or a private one. What exactly is the problem? (Other than you influencing him which is a big no-no.)

Hi! Sorry if I’ve implied it wrong when I said “influencing him”. I only introduced economics to him. He looked into it and grew an interest with it. But we always tell him to do whatever he wants and make sure he enjoys school. We never push him. He just do it on his own. We want him to have a wide option for uni and thought taking maths a levels would give him that opportunity

I wish such an importance wasn't put on students getting 8&9's. You have to remeber these are A* and above grades, due to how they set grade boundaries every year only a small% will get these makes. One year you could sit a GCSE and get an 8 but the next year the grade would be a 7 and the grade boundaries change every year and depend on how well all the students do. The system is totally flexible and not comparable from one year to the next. If you get a 9 then it just means you are the top % of that year group.

It would be so much more useful if the % marks where set. Even if it meant some years giving out fewer higher grades or sometimes more, you could actually properly compare year groups then.

Sorry op the GCSE system is just complicated. I think in year 8 it would be hard to predict what his actual grades would be. My son in year 8 does a lot.less homework then this and while revision for tests is maybe useful to get them into the habit a lot of the tests at this stage are only end of unit tests and design to assess how well they are learning in school. Revision isn't/shouldn't be a big thing at this point.

He will start learning GCSE work from this time next year. We start the science, maths and English early as there is a lot of content in the current GCSE'S. By the end of year 10 you should have a much better idea of predicted grades as they will sit mock exams at that stage. But there is always movement on mock grades at this point.

He's not learning GCSE content yet so why they would give GCSE questions in year 8 I don't know. Maybe year 9 would be more appropriate.

Like others have said go and ask the school.

I don't think giving grades at this point is really helpful our school gives % marks in year 8 instead. It shows how well they are learning.