This is getting airtime in the papers today.
It is really hard to argue against. It would raise revenue, according to the IFS, and is manifestly ‘fair’, especially as private schools have raised fees so much already, mainly to have facilities which rival country clubs, and to build massive reserves.
Heads have so much wriggle room on their £24,000 (where I am) per pupil fees to either make savings or pass the VAT rise on according to their demographic and preferences. The state sector, on £5,200 per pupil, had to absorb the teacher pay rise last year, which caused real pain. Strangely, there were very few threads on here about that!
My bet is they will put fees up by around 10%, give teachers a below inflation pay rise to absorb a couple of percent, push some facilities improvements further back, and increase class sizes a bit (I think they are already too large given the fees).
You will get some pupils leaving, as you do anyway as parents’ circumstances change but, on the whole, private education is a bit of a giffin good for many, like a Hermes bag, the more expensive, the more pleasure it gives as bragging rights.
VAT will be charged and, in a couple of years, no one will care.