Any other Heads publicly worrying about VAT?

[JustanotherBerkshiremum]

DCs at an independent school. The Head is obsessed by the proposed VAT implementation. Since October he has raised this issue in all public correspondence, ie newsletters, the school magazine and the end of term letter.

Are any other Heads out there publicly worrying about the future to their parents or is it just ours? You don’t need to name the school.

I get that it’s an issue but the school can finally claim back VAT. And if they get decent tax advice then they can cushion it a bit more. And it will only happen after the next election if (because nothing set in stone) Labour get in which is two years away.

I’d rather the Head kept his thoughts to himself at the moment. Am I being too harsh?

@edwardso agree it should be a slow direction of travel rather than a quick fix. And they will also carry on with the conservative's work on supporting improvements to contextual system of university admissions. I feel strangely excited about the next ten years for education, which helps the spirits on a wet and miserable day.

My DC is in Y7 and that y birth year we were told was a boom birth year. Certainly it has been a large year group at every school we’ve been to. At the time 2010-2011 it was in the news as a boom birth year because midwifery departments couldn’t cope with the increased numbers of births.

@DobbyTheHouseElk Pupil numbers in England set to shrink by near 1m in 10 years

www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/14/pupil-numbers-in-england-set-to-shrink-by-near-1m-in-10-years

Exactly. While the imposition of VAT might be the biggest risk to the independent sector, falling pupil numbers are definitely the biggest risk to the state sector. That's why the policy is a no-brainer for the Labour party. It raises money to invest back into state schools, reduces the main risk of falling rolls as some parents are priced out of the independent sector, and would be a vote winner given the large majority of kids that go to state schools. It will be part of the manifesto and I can't see why it wouldn't be introduced quickly within the first term.

In the last recession (2007) at least two independent schools locally to me moved over to become state schools. Presumably this didn't affect the pupils already at the school - since I imagine it was an intake from year 7 onwards. Both are now very popular options and the kids who go there appear to do very well.

Perhaps Labour should go further and remove charitable status from universities as majority of them are charities. Will it be a popular move? A lot of universities charge the maximum fee of £9,250 per year in return for a pretty mediocre course with a worthless degree at the end. Students are left with huge debts and only can get low paid jobs. Why nobody cares about a charitable status of universities but at the same time obsessed with charitable status of private schools?

What a weird policy position- to tax primary and secondary education but not tertiary. I think this is just red meat to the Labour left to keep them off his back. A lot of urban Blairite supporters would lean on him to kick it into the long grass. It’s pointless wasting of political capital when there are massively more important things to do like restore the economy and green the energy supply.

How much do they think they will gain from this added vat? Where will it go? To the state system?

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/annualbirthratesfrom2000to2016

2012 was a bulge year as pp said.

Numbers have dropped since then but it will be a while before we see significantly fewer children going through the education system. This also doesn't take immigration into consideration.

Post covid there are fewer births but this might increase over the coming years. I think this is a 'red meat' policy and will take a lot of figuring out to implement.

It’ll harm the sector unfortunately.

I can see why they are concerned. It’s political posturing with low benefit.

I presume there is no talk of charging VAT on university fees as for the majority of English-domiciled students their fees are initially provided by the taxpayer (through student loans and teaching grants). So it would be the state charging the state VAT, which is obviously pointless? Though of course I'm aware that the long-run cost is borne by students (if they earn more than the income threshold for paying off the student loan).

This was interesting in TES. Talks about fee paying schools in future being like ‘educational ritz hotels’ as the various sections of establishment use them less and less and they are used predominately by very rich foreigners after a slice of vintage Britain

www.tes.com/magazine/analysis/specialist-sector/private-school-sector-has-priced-itself-irrelevance

He only ever seems to talk about top tier independent schools.

thanks for sharing the article, @Mythicalmol
that was a fascinating read.

@Nappyvalley15 I think he is assuming the average ones will be gone fairly quickly

I think the author is confused as to who the new elite will be. British society has always adapted and absorbed new people from outside into its elite and the process slowly ejects some as the generations change. He got his place but his children might not, or they might, if they are exceptional or luckier than most. The assumption underlying his argument is that elite status is passed on whatever school you go to. It might be for the exceptionally wealthy or if the parents have risen so high, they can shoehorn their kids in, no problem - like a Beatle or such like. Does anyone think Kate Middleton would have married William if she had gone to the local comprehensive? Copy that a hundred thousand times, and you see how it works. Plus all that assumes that education outcomes from private are not just better because the teaching and resources and culture are better - which they are because they are.

@CrankyP Over on the Winchester thread a private school teacher is talking about how the teaching is often worse, resources less available in private schools.
Also ‘better culture’ is very subjective and depends what you are after - see thread on toxic sport running at the moment. Your comment is probably bit generalised for the majority of people on these threads. Private schools are sometimes better, definitely not always as evidenced on here time and time again.

I think there is a market for the balm to sooth the bruised egos of people that have not organised themselves to give their kids what their parents gave them. There is an obvious feeling of loss and cultural betrayal. The usual response is either that independent education is a waste of money (because my children will join the elite anyway) or a dangerous racket skewing the world in favour of a small out of touch minority (who will be crushed politically - it's always around the corner). Absolutely, there are a huge variety of experiences and a big overlap between state and independent kids' life chances. That's a good thing when it shows everyone can do well coming from anywhere. Still, people queue up for independent schooling.

@CrankyP I suspect the ‘balm’ for these people has been action based - making sure university admissions are fairer, making sure schools are being investigated for false marking or over inflated grades, making sure there are checks on charitable status and that VAT might be imposed on fees. Making sure that the truth about standards in teaching in these schools is a discussion point. Making sure that sex abuse claims in private schools aren’t brushed under the carpet like they used to be.

This is insightful re egos

Both sectors can be good it is true. I have noticed threads on here seem to cover private is unfair at same time as private isn’t any better anyway.

imo let people pay twice, keep the sector as it is as U.K. does it well and attracts o/s which feeds into universities

Don’t do crack pot political policies just because it’s easy to get votes from it

@JustanotherBerkshiremum my daughter is at a private school (senior) in Oxfordshire. Yes, our Head has publicly mentioned the concern regarding charitable status being stripped/VAT being added. Frankly I understand it, as for a significant number of the smaller private schools it may well finish them off. In our area the state schools are oversubscribed and I genuinely don't see where all the girls would go if our school goes under. Like most of my friends with kids in private school, we are in the zone where we are already working extremely hard to pay the fees as they stand (having already paid taxes which goes to provide state education) and VAT would probably tip us over the edge. Perversely it seems this policy will kill off the smaller private schools but leave the behemoths of the sector (the Etons etc) to rumble on because they (a) have huge reserves of cash to weather tough times and (b) generally speaking have wealthier parents in the first place. So I can see why the heads are worried and are mentioning it.

Sorry, where is the thread? I don't see one.

Thinking about this, the "7% of children are in independent schools" figure is often quoted, but I think I've seen something more like 20% for 6th form level. If there is a large net exodus to state education for post-16 that could prove a serious crunch point.

I sense a parliamentary insider here all spot on from another former aide