For me, a key point is that all these schools have decent numbers applying to Oxbridge and getting in. They all have an Oxbridge programme and the strongest students have a go and many get places. This seems good.
I guess it depends if you want a school that will push the majority to have a go at Oxbridge, even if they really aren’t that calibre. The reality is that even in popular, high performing schools, especially those who have some students who come in at a younger age and don’t face testing entry requirements at senior age, there is a broader range of ability. Lots of the students might well manage very good GCSEs given they are reasonably intelligent and have great resources in terms of staff numbers and other resources, but this doesn’t make the students all or mostly Oxbridge level.
Especially if you look at recent years of Covid GCSE/Alevel results which are very inflated, it can lead to parents thinking large proportions of the cohort really are Oxbridge level….but they aren’t. The schools know this. They know that a great string of GCSEs don’t necessarily make you Oxbridge material…even if the parents and those on MN can’t see that.
When selective fee paying schools put fewer students forward, it rarely is because they want to hold back good students. Of course it’s totally against their own interests to do this. If anything, most out forward too many, some of whom don’t really have a realistic chance at all. So when they put fewer forward, it really is a reflection of the ability range.
You absolutely cannot compare the GCSE or A Level results of a state school with an independent and conclude they must have the same ability level because results are the same. You do need to look at their starting points. It’s hard to measure, but when you know that regularly kids who get a place at the independent but don’t get an offer at the state Grammar, you can conclude that the range of ability at the independent is wider. This is almost always the case…not that there aren’t lots of extremely clever girls or boys in these top schools, but also there are always a number who are ‘the tail’ and that the tail can be much bigger than people imagine, even if very popular and high achieving schools.
Remember these schools are exam factories. They can push out hugely impressive GCSE results and force moderately bright kids to achieve at top levels. They can do similar at A Level and get the moderately bright to A grade and even A. But that’s not the same as being Oxbridge material. Most students on popular degrees at RG unis now have a clutch of A/A grades….those grades are far more widespread than even 3 or 5 years ago. But Oxbridge has limited places and they need to go to the brightest across the country. One shouldn’t imagine that because their child attends a top 50 school, most or even large proportions will. Be this level, or that the school is failing if ‘only’ 20% apply to Oxbridge and ‘only’ 10% get places. People have an inflated sense of the ability of the cohorts within schools and a daft sense of how many of the limited places that are available for the entire nation should be available and deserved by one particular school.