State school oxbridge bias

[confusedmommy]

Hi, come March 1st, we are very likely to be in the fortunate position to be able pick between a top independent boys school in london ( KCS or St.Paul’s ) and a grammar school ( Tiffin or Wilson ) for my DS. The choice will be a difficult one for us. We can afford the fees but not without some sacrifices. Meanwhile I’m hearing that oxbridge is beginning to favour state school applications more so in recent years. Is this really true ? And if yes, is this only true in Oxford or is this trend seen in other top Russell group universities too. Given grammar is a realistic option for us, I am wondering even more if independent is the right choice for my DS ( who doesn’t really have a strong point of view personally )

Oxford make decisions at a more departmental level, but at Cambridge, decisions are largely made at a college level by the DoS. They don’t care what school you went to at that point. They are basically looking for the students they themselves want to supervise for the next three years. That’s what it comes down to, ultimately. Also, the stats show that around 50% of students entering Oxford and Cambridge have achieved at least three A in their A-levels. So even though the websites will tell you it’s fine to apply with the minimum grades (AAA at C or even AAA for some humanities courses at O), it’s worth bearing in mind that the reality is most students will achieve significantly higher than this.

Tiffin, it isn't private but is selective. Even in the 1970s it was a top school for getting kids into Oxbridge and an academic hothouse. No difference accept the fees. Incidently, it's really peculiar how grammar schools persist in some parts of the UK. I'm nearly 60 and was the first year of comprehensive schools where I grew up. Oh and I got into Oxbridge from a former secondary modern. Admittedly, a very good one.

If I were you I would send your ds to the school you think he would be happiest at/would suit him best. You have no idea at this stage if he will even want to apply to Oxbridge, it's not for everyone and certainly not something that a parent should be trying to engineer at this age. Let him live his life and make his choices, don't try and force him down a route that may not be what he would choose for himself.

I don't get this at all to be honest. I wouldn't place my child in a state school just for the sake of them maybe facing a certain situation at a top university in a few years. Who knows what will happen?
I think that you should choose the school that will be the best fit for your DS. The one that will maximise their potential, where they will feel happy and secure. A school that as a family you feel comfortable with.
At the moment, a pupil from the private system is 5 times more likely to get into Oxbridge, with the "bias" towards state. I would trust the system and just choose the right school.

Tiffin is far from an average state school though so the consideration of "a pupil from the private system is 5 times more likely to get into Oxbridge" really doesn't apply here as Tiffin sends more DC on to Oxbridge than many independent schools. The core education is very similar to that of a top independent selective school and it superselects at the outset so its grade outcomes are hardly surprising. Thus, a set of top grades from Tiffin would be contextualised by Unis in a similar way to top grades from any top selective (state or independent). So there is no or negligible contextualisation advantage of choosing Tiffin over another high performing independent school. In any case, what is far more important than this consideration is to choose the school that is right for the DC. They are far more likely to thrive in a school that fits them well. Oxbridge or not is a consideration for the DC themselves in the future and shouldn't be part of the secondary school choice.

I haven't read all of the replies.. but your child still stands a much higher chance of a place at Oxbridge if they are privately educated than if they are state educated.. perhaps not so high as they did some years ago.. but still far far higher!!

@ChateauMargaux Exactly!

@MissScotland, as I said, your observation doesn't apply with the state schools the OP is comparing though www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-oxbridge-files The state schools the OP is referring to Tiffin (Boys) is number 45, Wilson's isnumber 50 in the country. Tiffin (Girls) is number 13 - very similar to schools like SPGS. Nothing to do with any special considerations for being a state school though - similar intake and high teaching standards. It has been the case for many years.

Just to update on that, Wilson's boys have received 33 offers this year, 24 last year, so that table was based on a low year for them.

@BloomingBarristers These aren't pure state schools, they are grammar schools and the top ones in the country. If you have the option to choose between these and private you might consider going grammar.
Nevertheless, this may change too as it's very likely that at some point they will be considered independent as far as admissions go.

I think that the information you linked to shows very clearly that privately educated children still stand a much higher chance to get into Oxbridge, followed by grammar schools, various six form collages, special academies and then a few pure states.
Not to forget that the private sector makes only 6% of the education domain so admissions do not reflect that at all.

@MissScotland referring back to the OP's question, these are the state schools the thread is talking about though. The grammars are considered the same as independent schools as far as universities are concerned. I think Oxbridge is clever enough to work out that these are super selective and highly performing school. It is not about independent or not independent. The point is, if you analyse the stats, these schools would fall into 'state' and thus skew the figures. There is a big distinction between selection processes and statistical analysis. Contextualisation is simply viewing grades in the context in which they were realised, so four A stars from Tiffin Girls although obviously good, doesn't make you unusual in your cohort so you would need more than that, irrespective of whether it is a state school or not.

I absolutely agree with you.
I missed the fact that in this thread, these grammars were seen as just state. They are often much harder to get into by the way and the kids have to work just as hard.

Sorry posted too early. So look at a school like SPGS, similar standard of intake to Tiffin Girls, similar teaching levels so similar Oxbridge entrance stats. No 'advantage' to being state and no need for one.

@MissScotland it's more like 20% at sixth form. 6% includes primary.
I think people should also be concerned not only that universities are choosing private school students (although in recent years these are diminishing but I personally hope for the right reasons and not just because of public outcry) but the top unis are reducing number of places overall for U.K. students in favour of higher fee paying foreign students. It's putting pressure on all U.K. students trying to gain a place at some institutes and I don't think it's right tbh.

This is from the BBC in 2019:

Student figures from the Higher Education Statistics Agency and from the universities show 7% fewer UK undergraduates at Oxford and 5% fewer at Cambridge, compared with 2007-08.
Overseas undergraduate students rose by 51% at Oxford and 65% at Cambridge.

@beanbaggalore
That's still a big difference. So 6% includes kids that went to state primary but private secondary?

I was an international student myself, paying very high fees, so I can't take sides here really :-)

And one more thing -
The data in the Spectator is strongly skewed towards larger schools as its presented in absolute numbers and not percentages.

6% is all students attending independent schools and 20% is sixth form independent students.

Another thing to note is not all private schools offer a higher chance of say and oxbridge place. Approximately 20 independent schools in the U.K. offer a more obvious statistically higher chance, however, I deal with these private schools, they are incredible and often highly selective schools with amazingly talented students, Even amongst the elite getting a place at say St Paul's school is not easy and these dc are already very very bright.

Oxbridge are still very much offering elite institutions places from abroad, they are only reducing the 'elite' places in the U.K. all that will happen is the talent from the U.K. in independent schools will move abroad. They are also overall reducing places for U.K. students.
It's a shame. We should be looking to raise state schools to offer the same level of education as private schools, or at least offering a few 'elite' state schools for the very best talent regardless of background so we can compete in the U.K. on an international scale. World institutions are choosing from a world wide pool. We need to compete on a world basis. The U.K. is terrible for genuinely amazing state education.

I care very much about education and when I researched what's available in some countries compared to the U.K. state system it's quite bad but there are a great many pressures schools didn't face 20 years ago. The face of private education in the U.K. (and by this I mean the key private schools that send dc to oxbridge in greater numbers) has gone in one direction catering for the elite because hardly any U.K. people can afford the fees and the state education has gone in the opposite direction overall.

@MissScotland the 20% figure includes DC that went to state until GCSE and switched to private 6th form. I believe you are allowed to take an objective view on something, irrespective of your individual circumstances. My view is that the issue with international students is that they are not subject to the same contextualisation as home students (speaking as an ex International student myself)

"I think that the information you linked to shows very clearly that privately educated children still stand a much higher chance to get into Oxbridge, followed by grammar schools, various six form colleges, special academies and then a few pure states."

Incorrect re grammars. You need to look at the numbers involved as the grammar sector is very small and this distorts the overall numbers. From the Spectator table, 425 places went to Grammars and 1185 to Indies. Approximately 4% of all DC go to grammars and 20% go to sixth form in indies. So on these stats grammar school kids actually stand a much higher chance of getting into Oxbridge at grammars than at an independent school overall. Of course, this reflects selection/intake rather than any skewed advantage. Also, it is not the whole picture as there will be random indies across the country getting a few in here and there but the same can also be said of other schools in the grammar sector.

This highlights how including grammar school places into state school offers by Oxbridge is fundamentally flawed. However, I think splitting by selective and non-selective isn't totally fair either as a non-selective state school is a very different entity from a non-selective indie in terms of class sizes, resources etc. It really is quite a complex picture.

BloomingBarristers - you talk a lot of sense.

Basically, Oxbridge contextualise an applicants grades by the average GCSEs and A-levels attained at THEIR INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL. Each school has a “profile” which includes the grade profiles of students over a given number of years. Unis use this “average student profile” in their contextualisation of offers. It makes no difference whether the school is independent or state, in this respect.

HOWEVER - at Cambridge in recent years, it is very rare for independent school candidates who narrowly miss an offer at their first choice college to be taken out of the pool. If choosing between someone with 10x9s and 3 A from Tiffin, or someone with 10x9s and 3A from an independent with a similar “average student profile,” they will almost certainly lean towards the pooled state school candidate because it looks better for the WP stats. This is the difference.

The independent schools can see the evidence of this shift for themselves, For instance, I have DC at two of the so-called London super-selective independent schools. Students are still getting in to Cambridge colleges, but only if their first choice college makes them an offer. Even though about 20 get into Cambridge each year, it’s always to the college they applied to and nobody has been offered a place from the pool in about 4 years. This did not used to be the case. The winter pool is now a WP initiative basically. Which is absolutely fine, but people just need to be aware if this.

I have been told similar by a reliable source sala. Though she said that candidates who had other barriers might still be pooled. I know someone who was pooled for 2022 entry from a highly prestigious boarding school - they're at that school on a full scholarship and from a fairly hair-raising background.

@BloomingBarristers

"I think that the information you linked to shows very clearly that privately educated children still stand a much higher chance to get into Oxbridge, followed by grammar schools, various six form colleges, special academies and then a few pure states."

Incorrect re grammars. You need to look at the numbers involved as the grammar sector is very small and this distorts the overall numbers. From the Spectator table, 425 places went to Grammars and 1185 to Indies. Approximately 4% of all DC go to grammars and 20% go to sixth form in indies. So on these stats grammar school kids actually stand a much higher chance of getting into Oxbridge at grammars than at an independent school overall. Of course, this reflects selection/intake rather than any skewed advantage. Also, it is not the whole picture as there will be random indies across the country getting a few in here and there but the same can also be said of other schools in the grammar sector.

This highlights how including grammar school places into state school offers by Oxbridge is fundamentally flawed. However, I think splitting by selective and non-selective isn't totally fair either as a non-selective state school is a very different entity from a non-selective indie in terms of class sizes, resources etc. It really is quite a complex picture.

Given the oft-cited starting point of 7% of all kids going private I suspect that the proportion of A level candidates at "indies" [the use of that term is quite high up on page of the guide to how to say you're ensconced in a bubble of extreme privilege without saying you're ensconced in a bubble of extreme privilege] is probably quite a bit lower than your 20%.

E.g. the link here has a figure of 13% of all "entries", I think here "entry" probably means that 13% of all children who sit one or more A levels goes to a private school, rather than that 13% of all A level papers are submitted to an exam board for marking by a private school. I suppose that state candidates are probably likelier to have an A level or two maybe on their own or with a BTEC or something?

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-entries-for-gcse-as-and-a-level-summer-2021-exam-series/provisional-entries-for-gcse-as-and-a-level-summer-2021-exam-series

Focusing on just the overall number of kids is a bit daft - if it is 13% of A level candidates who are at private schools then you'd of course expect the private schools to have a higher share of top uni places than 13% because private schools do on average more selection than state schools [more than the average comp, less than the average GS, but there are so few GS's that all-pupils averages tend towards that of comps] and then have around double the teaching budget per head.

But when you've got the private schools exceeding the share of Oxbridge places that their share of AAA+ would predict, as they always have done and still do, even when a state school AAA+ has been achieved with half the resources, that's when it's just not acceptable.

@sala7 absolutely, I'd forgotten about the winter pool issue. DC should be picked from that purely on merit and definitely not as part of any target meeting exercise. @PermanentTemporary the DC you mention is a classic case of the complexity of context.

@puffyisgood I am bemused by your assertion [the use of that term is quite high up on page of the guide to how to say you're ensconced in a bubble of extreme privilege without saying you're ensconced in a bubble of extreme privilege]. That is a very emotive and judgemental response to one term. Sorry but your theory is all wrong in my case, it is pure and simply lazy abbreviation! I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to say with your other points, other than WP and contextualisation are good things (agreed) and should be fair to all (also agreed). In my view the current levelling processes are a bit too blunt-edged but progress is being made. From my own experience, the biggest single barrier is actually getting state school DC to apply to Oxbridge in the first place. That is something that the outreach programmes are definitely moving in the right direction.