Can anyone explain where ‘GCSE Target Grades come from?

[TableFlowerss]

Are there any teachers that could explain how schools decide what the target grade is going to be for each pupil?

DC is in year 7 and has had 2 reports, each identical almost. Because if covid they didn’t have SATS so they couldn’t have used those to predict the grades.

I’ve asked school but no one has ever got back to me. DC says they rarely hand in work so it can’t be based on the work they do in class as covid has made this impossible.

They are great grades so I can’t ask anyone in real life as I don’t feel comfortable and the teachers seem to be too busy to reply…,

They want parents to be involved in their child’s education yet finding out what should be a straightforward answer, is proving rather difficult.

Grades are-

One 7, one 9 and the rest 8’s

We did our year 7 target grades based on baseline tests that we did with them when they came in. But they were done centrally rather than by subject so I cannot be more specific than that!

Year 7 GCSE predicted/target grades are a load of nonsense.

I believe they just come from the year 6 SATS. Most schools also try to underestimate, do they can show ‘progression’.

@PotteringAlong

We did our year 7 target grades based on baseline tests that we did with them when they came in. But they were done centrally rather than by subject so I cannot be more specific than that!

Thanks for replying. That would make sense. So was it kind of like a general IQ type test? Sorry to be ignorant.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Year 7 GCSE predicted/target grades are a load of nonsense.

I believe they just come from the year 6 SATS. Most schools also try to underestimate, do they can show ‘progression’.

I would have assumed they came from SATS ordinarily but they didn’t do SATS due to covid.

@TableFlowerss I honestly have no idea! They all disappeared for testing for a day and then the target grades appeared in the system a week later.

Due to the lack of SATS data ours did CAT tests at the beginning of year 7 and they were used to set predicted grades.

And, yes, most schools also test cognitive scores (such as Midyis). This is similar to an old style IQ test. It tests verbal stuff, number stuff and also ‘skills’ (really reading comprehension plus a bit).

Some companies provide GCSE predictions from these. They mean little, except, sometimes, for the very top and bottom.

But yes, under normal circumstances they are extrapolated from SATS. We definitely do not underestimate @TheReluctantPhoenix, there’s a set formula that we have to stick to. If anything it’s the exact opposite - kids who have been drilled for their sats to within an inch of their life end up with impossibly high target grades they won’t get close to.

As a secondary teacher, I’m really hoping my own children underperform in their sats when the time comes, just to reduce target grade pressure.

@PotteringAlong
@LilithImpala67

That makes sense then. Must be what you guys have said about the tests. Thanks for that.

Ha ha!!! I was a secondary school teacher for 25 years, it used to bemuse me too. But l know where they come from.

From KS2 scores. They are then compared across the country. And are then calculated using previous GCSE scores . So if your child got x score at KS2, the majority of students with that score went into achieve x grade at GCSE. That’s your target score. However, sometimes they are tweaked upwards to be an aspirational grade.

Some of these are based on subject scores or combined KS2 scores. Some schools also set CAT tests and then factor them in.

Sometimes they factor the schools own previous GCSE scores into them too.

Clear as mud

@PotteringAlong

But yes, under normal circumstances they are extrapolated from SATS. We definitely do not underestimate *@TheReluctantPhoenix*, there’s a set formula that we have to stick to. If anything it’s the exact opposite - kids who have been drilled for their sats to within an inch of their life end up with impossibly high target grades they won’t get close to.

As a secondary teacher, I’m really hoping my own children underperform in their sats when the time comes, just to reduce target grade pressure.

That’s my concern actually. DC has what I would consider, really difficult to achieve grades to aspire to. They may get those grades but it won’t be easy at all.

Anything less and they’ll feel like they’ve failed I worry.

Predicted grades are calculated by using a government formula, inputting KS2 scores - these are currently estimates, as ks2 tests were not done.

Target grades are one or two grades higher than predicted grades

They have very little meaning

I can tell you that most schools do not underestimate the target grades. If they did that then as a head of department I could have been far more relaxed about my GCSE grades. In my school they were based on a mix of KS2 results and on tests Year 7 did when they entered the school - a mix of verbal, non verbal and numeracy type test. None of these results were generated in tests from my own subject but they were still used to give target grades. Once the grade was generated it was then upped by one. Some schools use MIDYS, some use Fisher Family Trust. It generates lots and lots and lots of stats and paperwork.

It was a ridiculous system. Students who were just about able to write a sentence even in Year 9 were given target GCSE grades of 7 or 8. Even more ridiculous since they were projected from grades given to them when they were 10 or 11 years old. I had to meet every two months with management to go through my departments predicted grades. Utter waste of time and effort since my department was very successful and always produced GCSE results well above the LEA and national average in my subject. It didn't stop my HT constantly challenging me as to why students in the bottom set who did not have any chance of a high grade pass in any subject were not being predicted a higher grade.

I would take all target grades with a pinch of salt - especially at the moment.

@54321nought

Predicted grades are calculated by using a government formula, inputting KS2 scores - these are currently estimates, as ks2 tests were not done.

Target grades are one or two grades higher than predicted grades

They have very little meaning

Wonder why the target grades are one or two marks higher than predicted grades?

I mean, they have no meaning for individuals. Overall, a cohort can expect their AVERAGE grades to be the same as the predicted grades, meaning some children will score up to 5-6 grades higher than predicted, and some 5-6 grades lower

why are target grades higher than predicted? Predicted grades are not the child's full potential, they are the average grade expected of a child with that particular previous achievement. Some children will drop out of school, some will be absent a lot, some won't care or try, some will be ill or die. And some will work hard and get a lot of home support. So some will fall below the predicted grade, and some above. Any individual parent should be supporting their child in being one of those who achieve ABOVE the predicted grade.

@iamtopazmortmain

I can tell you that most schools do not underestimate the target grades. If they did that then as a head of department I could have been far more relaxed about my GCSE grades. In my school they were based on a mix of KS2 results and on tests Year 7 did when they entered the school - a mix of verbal, non verbal and numeracy type test. None of these results were generated in tests from my own subject but they were still used to give target grades. Once the grade was generated it was then upped by one. Some schools use MIDYS, some use Fisher Family Trust. It generates lots and lots and lots of stats and paperwork.

It was a ridiculous system. Students who were just about able to write a sentence even in Year 9 were given target GCSE grades of 7 or 8. Even more ridiculous since they were projected from grades given to them when they were 10 or 11 years old. I had to meet every two months with management to go through my departments predicted grades. Utter waste of time and effort since my department was very successful and always produced GCSE results well above the LEA and national average in my subject. It didn't stop my HT constantly challenging me as to why students in the bottom set who did not have any chance of a high grade pass in any subject were not being predicted a higher grade.

I would take all target grades with a pinch of salt - especially at the moment.

This is what confuses me, why on earth would students that were just about able to write a sentence in year 9, given target grades of 7/8?

That was based on these tests etc from year 7?

Sounds crackers. After all, surely the teachers know them the best.

Different schools base them on different things - but a lot of schools use CATS results to get targets. Our old school used something called FFT (Fischer Family Trust) we calculates them for you. They do different levels - so they school can set how ambitious it is. The school we were at had FFT5 targets which meant that if students all got targets we would be in the top 5% nationally for progress. Before that we used to use FFT + 1, which took the progress an average student would make in an average school and added on 1 grade extra.
But essentially there is no unified method with targets given out.

Ooooh good question OP!
How do you figure out what the numbers mean? Like how do you know a 7/8 is good?

We have a "default" predicted grade of 5, for students with no Sats test results, or any similar work, such as children with learning difficulties, who are still pre-verbal, and can't yet hold a pencil......

We use FFT when I taught in the UK.

Students were given a predicted grade (50% of pupils with this test profile historically get this grade), an aspirational grade (25% of similar students get this or higher), & teachers were privately told an 'acceptable' grade (25% of students who test like this get this or lower).

So if you wanted to pass threshold or be considered for promotion, you were expected to get your class an average comfortably above the predicted - say your class of 30 got 15 aspirational, 10 predicted & 5 acceptable, that would be OK. Provided all the 'acceptables' had been sufficiently documented & supported & you could prove it, of course.

Get anything worse than 10 of each, & you'd be advised to start jobhunting.

Oh, & if you were a Head of Department, you were expected to get better grades in each successive year or fall on your sword.

Obviously, this is all a bit dodgy if the data going in is dubious in the first place. It also wasn't a wonderfully happy atmosphere to learn or work in.

They are set higher than is realistic for many students to make them 'aspirational'. The theory is that some students - especially the more able - might sit back and do nothing if they think they are on for an ok grade. It is also supposed to keep teachers on their toes and working hard to push all students hard so that the school will do well in the league tables.

I have never agreed with this. Most students want to do as well as they possible can. Very few able students are content to 'coast'. Setting unrealistically high targets for the less able is just soul destroying. Some schools operate a traffic light system. It is thoroughly miserable for those students who get a red in every subject after every assessment cycle. The time that is wasted constantly testing, recording and analysing this data.........

We predict them from SATS and then add a grade on. So if KS2 SATS suggest you should be aiming for a grade 6, we will give you a target of grade 7.

The government track progress between Year 6 and Year 11 so schools definitely would never set low targets. That would be ridiculous.