Can anyone explain where ‘GCSE Target Grades come from?

[TableFlowerss]

Are there any teachers that could explain how schools decide what the target grade is going to be for each pupil?

DC is in year 7 and has had 2 reports, each identical almost. Because if covid they didn’t have SATS so they couldn’t have used those to predict the grades.

I’ve asked school but no one has ever got back to me. DC says they rarely hand in work so it can’t be based on the work they do in class as covid has made this impossible.

They are great grades so I can’t ask anyone in real life as I don’t feel comfortable and the teachers seem to be too busy to reply…,

@Kerplunkk

9 is meant to be higher than the old A* trade
Then 7-8 around the old A
5-6 the old B
4 is around the Old C

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Ha ha!!! I was a secondary school teacher for 25 years, it used to bemuse me too. But l know where they come from.

From KS2 scores. They are then compared across the country. And are then calculated using previous GCSE scores . So if your child got x score at KS2, the majority of students with that score went into achieve x grade at GCSE. That’s your target score. However, sometimes they are tweaked upwards to be an aspirational grade.

Some of these are based on subject scores or combined KS2 scores. Some schools also set CAT tests and then factor them in.

Sometimes they factor the schools own previous GCSE scores into them too.

Clear as mud

Clear as mud alright 🤣

@Kerplunkk

Ooooh good question OP! How do you figure out what the numbers mean? Like how do you know a 7/8 is good?

This is about the only thing that I can answer!

Instead of A*-G it’s now 9-1.

9 is the highest score, 1 is the lowest.

I think 4/5 is the equivalent of old GCSE (something like that)

Thanks for all the reply’s. What I have leaned is that it’s not as straightforward to answer and different schools uses different methods.

I’ve also learned that being a secondary teacher and all these predicted, aspirational, target grades, must make like difficult for you guys!

My son was very bright at KS2- straight level 5s when that was the maximum you could achieve. I was dragged into his secondary school at the end of year 7 to be berated because he wasn't achieving his targets in some subjects. He had been set targets of A for everything, based on the 5s he had from primary. But these targets had been set for EVERY subject based on his results in reading, writing, maths and science. So he had targets of A for art and PE. I had to explain that he was dyspraxia and there was no way on God's green earth that he would every achieve an A in those subjects! But the targets followed him all the way to GCSE- he didn't sit Art or PE, not surprising!

Had dyspraxia not was dyspraxia!

@spanieleyes

My son was very bright at KS2- straight level 5s when that was the maximum you could achieve. I was dragged into his secondary school at the end of year 7 to be berated because he wasn't achieving his targets in some subjects. He had been set targets of A for everything, based on the 5s he had from primary. But these targets had been set for EVERY subject based on his results in reading, writing, maths and science. So he had targets of A for art and PE. I had to explain that he was dyspraxia and there was no way on God's green earth that he would every achieve an A in those subjects! But the targets followed him all the way to GCSE- he didn't sit Art or PE, not surprising!

Good grief, that’s terrible for your poor son. It’s one thing getting A for maths but that doesn’t necessarily equate to A file Art or PE etc…

Although there were no SATS this year, our primary school were still asked to supply a teacher predicted grade for Maths and Reading, and to provide a piece of writing for each year 6 leaver.

This followed them to secondary with their transition notes.

It was the same for my subject. It is not one that was tested at KS2 but students were given a target grade based on their KS2 grade in other subjects - many not at all similar to mine. It's such a crude tool but I told management that until I was blue in the face. It sometimes worked in my favour. I had some truely brilliant students who just loved my subject and had a flair for it, but had a low target due to their grades in the core subjects. I got lots of 'value added' points for them as they did far better than their target grade.

Thanks @User5827372728 & @TableFlowerss
Think I need to take a course just to understand it all, I take my hat off to you secondary teachers!

This confuses me too. Mine has predicted grades 7-9 for each and every subject. She did exceptionally well in English, ok at Maths in her SATs. So I don't understand how that translates to a 7-9 target in o computing, which she is essentially crap at?!! And the targets aren't more specific than 7-9. Do they get more specific in y9-11?

You remember that big wheel thing on 'Wheel of Fortune'?
Well, they've got something like that - I think.

@TableFlowerss
Even worse! He also has ASD- Aspergers. His music target was also an A, but the result was based on a group production and " how he worked as part of a team" Clearly he didn't! He was given an end of year grade of C- which was probably generous despite the fact that he was a church choral singer! But that was two grades below his target and therefore part of my "discussion" with the head of year 7- who was visibly embarrassed having to explain that everything was based on results in year 6 in reading, writing and maths😁

DD's school give "minimum target grades", calculated from SATs results, and keep emphasising that these are only a minimum. That's probably better than aspirational grades which are unrealistic.
However some of DD's are 9s. Half the staff will not predict 9s earlier than year 11. Hence she appears to be heading for below her "minimum target grades" in some subjects.
I have suggested that they should simply not give 9 as a "minimum target".

@iamtopazmortmain and @spanieleyes I sympathise.

I teach Music and target grades based on KS2 SATs are ridiculous in my subject. Thankfully my school does things differently and there is some teacher discretion allowed. We are also not hauled over the coals if a student doesn't meet their target because they recognise that they require particular skills not tested in KS2 SATs.

The one that pisses me off is having to write a predicted grade for GCSE on KS3 reports. This year, until June, I had done zero practical work with any of them. How am I meant to predict something? Last year I had a parent confront me about why their precious darling was only predicted a 6 when they were predicted 8/9 in everything else. I simply asked them what piece they would perform for the 30% performance component (they didn't play anything or sing) and the parents huffed off.

Never heard of this before! It sounds an extremely stressful way to do things for pupil, parent and teacher!
My children were in (different) independent schools and we were only advised of their ‘potential’ to achieve certain grades in their GCSEs at the mid/end of yr10. They were in sets for core subjects from yr7 so, I suppose, you could/might think top set = 6/7+ etc.
In yr9 when choosing options you were, of course, told if they had potential to do well in that particular subject, but no one tried to predict grades.
We’ve always been wary of ‘predicted’ grades as it can lead to children coasting, or thinking they’re not capable of achieving better results.
Also agree with @lanthanum that schools shouldn’t predict 8/9s.