When do schools usually decide whether a student should do foundation or higher tier GCSE maths?

[Phial]

Just posting to find out what is most usual.
DS1 going into Y10, predicted a 5, so I am just wondering when this decision is usually made, so we can work out our best approach.
I think he is capable of more than a 5, might need some tutoring and I am trying to work out when this would most benefit him.
Thanks.

Most schools would make the final decision for each individual after year 11 mocks, but there will be a default assumption for each set, and setting may well be reviewed at various points.

I would look for the tutoring sooner rather than later. Firstly, that means the improvement will be seen sooner, and so he may move up a set. Also, getting it underway before the pressure really piles on means you can perhaps ease off later on.

Entries decided March time, although can be changed right up until the morning of the exam (costs school more to do this)

In my kids school those in the top 3 sets in year 11 sit higher maths, sets 4-6 sit foundation.

Thanks all. I was slightly worried I had already left it too late but I really hope not.
I was more wondering about the expectations of sets as if the set is too low, he won't learn the stuff he needs for higher.
I'll look at tutoring and maybe ask his teacher in the early part of Y10.

Early March in year 11 - which was particularly awful for those pupils told to downgrade to a foundation level in 2020 just before the exams were cancelled...
Btw just going in y10 very early to be taking any predictions seriously. Most boys come a lot during y10 and y11 as they mature a bit later than girls, which is not always appreciated when assessing the individual child.

Definitely worth speaking to the school about this - personally I would say 5 estimate would typically be higher tier so I would ask the school their process for making the decision and what do they base it on (possibly mock papers etc?)

On what basis is the 5 predicted? If it's a computer algorithm based on SATS, then ignore it. If it's based on something more like "if he continues to work at current level of progress", you can give it more weight.

DC's school doesn't make higher/foundation decisions until January of Year 11. But realistically a DC would need to be in at least a middling set at the start of Year 10 (at DC's school that is probably at least 6 out of 9 sets) to have any chance of being entered for higher.

I also think you need to consider if it's really important for your DC to get more than a 5. There is a lot to be said for "banking" a 5 on the foundation paper and devoting more time to other subjects that might need more work than busting a gut just to raise it to a 6. If he is interested in a future career in STEM, for example, then clearly getting more than a 5 in maths will be more important.

I'm an exams officer. This year I had tier changes until end of april.

At the end of year 10, we would normally have an idea, but after year 11 mocks, decisions then entries are made. A solid grade 5 in my subject at the end of year 9 would probably make me think higher by year 11 but it is dependent on so many things.

Sorry, I missed predicted grade, not current. We don't do predicted GCSE grades in year 9. I would want to see plenty of evidence of ability at grade 6+ to enter for higher but there is plenty of time.

What is a 5 equal to in old money? A C?

5 is a high C. 4 or above is considered to be a GCSE "pass".

Oh right. Thanks. My eldest is year 7 and all the insteps and megs are so confusing.

OP I agree with others, decision is not made until sometime in year 11. However, if his set/group is all aiming for F, then yes, the work for H may not be covered, so I would look into it now and maybe talk to the teacher before the end of term.

You say he is capable of more than a 5 - but would this actually be of benefit? The F paper is a lot more accessible - I do think for a student who is a strong 5, they will get a better experience of doing F as they will have mastery of it - as opposed to doing H and not being able to access a good deal of the paper (to get a 5 at H tier, you only need to get about a third of the marks, in other words 60+% of the questions you cannot answer).

For future careers and A level/uni applications, a 5 is fine - obviously unless he is hoping to do maths/engineering or similar - in which case, as you were! Hope that is helpful, not trying to be clever or snidey.

A 4 is a low/mid C in old money.
A 5 is a high C or low B .
A 6 is a med/ high B.

My son is at the end of Yr10, been predicated a 5 working at a 4/5 at the moment and the school have made the decision already to move half his class down a set from the start of next year and no option but to do foundation. (This is set 2 of 5 sets!) I’m looking for some clarification from the school with little luck.

We have been told mid yr11 but as maths is one of the weaker areas, some concentrated revision for yr9 exams led to an increase in grades which is a confidence boost so I would look for some tuition sooner rather than later.

You've all said the right things, thank you.
The higher paper is more about him not wanting to limit himself to getting a 5 maximum, as he would probably be unhappy with a 4 and hoping for a 5/6.
If he does some tutoring/hard work starting Y10, and I will talk to his teacher in the first term as well, then we can see where we are.
I am happy to accept the school's advice that he should sit Foundation (if they do say that), once I know he's made a bit of an effort, I just didn't want to be presented with that info without putting some work in first.

By the way I meant to say before, so will add now - if a child does foundation, that is in no way indicated on their GCSE certificate, It will say Maths - grade 5 but that's all. Just in case anyone was worried about a stigma around taking foundation (not that there should be, in any way, as it is usually the best option if advised, but I suspect it may be a concern).

@clary

By the way I meant to say before, so will add now - if a child does foundation, that is in no way indicated on their GCSE certificate, It will say Maths - grade 5 but that's all. Just in case anyone was worried about a stigma around taking foundation (not that there should be, in any way, as it is usually the best option if advised, but I suspect it may be a concern).

That's good to know. I imagine taking the foundation paper would dent his confidence a bit if his friends were taking the Higher, but in all honesty he probably only needs a 5, and maybe should be using the time to push for 6s in something else.

There's generally only a minority of kids who you'd be uncertain about - those predicted middle grades covered by both H and F. The set that they go into at the start of the GCSE course is a significant determiner of tier, it's problematic to jump from one tier to another when you've only studied for one of the tiers for the entire course, and schools will have an idea that, for eg, sets 1-4 do H 5-8 do F. The biggest shuffle will be after yr 11 mocks, and more usually downwards if you felt some groups of students wouldn't hit the 'C' (old money) on the H. Although I've also switched tiers days before an exam. The only thing that could really prevent moving to a higher tier would be that the current set isn't studying the H topics, although you could show the school you're doing the H topics with a tutor, I imagine.

Discuss it with the school. There's many considerations when choosing a tier. As PP have said, the H tier can be quite demoralising for students who are expected to get a lower grade and the psychological effect of that can really knock confidence. And 20 year of teaching maths has shown me how important confidence is.

Would he do some work over the summer? Even 15 mins a day identifying areas he struggles with and watching some Khan academy or similar will soon add up and put him in a more comfortable position to start yr10.

Many of the schools here unofficially decide at the start of Year 10 when they are put into sets that are intended for Foundation or Higher. It's officially still possible to move, so people don't object too much at that stage, until they realise that in practice, moving is extremely unlikely, through a combination of timetabling, class sizes, and missed material. I have tutored a few Year 10/11 who would like to learn some of the Higher content, but the set up at school means that once they are in Foundation, that's pretty much it. By Year 11, the Higher classes have done so much more work that it would be really hard for them to make up the missed content even with a tutor. And switching maths sets could mean changing other classes, and when they have a sort of 2-year program, usually with the same teacher, that can be complicated.

other schools manage it better, lots more maths sets all along, less of a fixed divide between foundation/higher classes, more reviews of sets, more students generally which can mean more maths classes timetabled at the same time, allowing moves, etc etc.

so it's quite a school specific thing. But overall I think switching from a class that is intending to do Foundation to one that is intending to do Higher, is quite an effort; if they are in a class that is unsure which tier they will do and is teaching some crossover 4-6 content, then it will be an easier move. Going the other way, from Higher to Foundation, is generally easier (unless they are so lost in a higher class that they are getting nothing from it, and missing out on learning some of the basics well, which you would hope would be noticed earlier!). I think larger schools where there are more finely graded sets can make that aspect easier.

But the sooner the better for changing to Higher, for a pupil who really wants to do it.

DC's school have a slightly different set up to SCMocha in that, by the start of Year 10, sets 1-3 are pretty much guaranteed to do Higher (though you get the odd student that moves out); set 4 is borderline but probably Higher; sets 5-6 are borderline but probably Foundation and sets 7-9 are definitely foundation. If you weren't in at least a middle set by the start of Year 10, your chance of doing Higher would be nil. After Year 11 mocks the middle sets are shuffled and definitely categorised as Foundation or Higher. And probably more students move down than up.

I would say that in middle sets although the teaching still has an eye to Higher material, they likely won't cover all the material, so getting a very top grade is pretty much impossible.

I would say that in middle sets although the teaching still has an eye to Higher material, they likely won't cover all the material, so getting a very top grade is pretty much impossible.

Though presumably kids are in the middle sets because they haven't mastered middle grade topics, so wouldn't be able to master the top grade material in the time anyway.