When do schools usually decide whether a student should do foundation or higher tier GCSE maths?

[Phial]

Just posting to find out what is most usual.
DS1 going into Y10, predicted a 5, so I am just wondering when this decision is usually made, so we can work out our best approach.
I think he is capable of more than a 5, might need some tutoring and I am trying to work out when this would most benefit him.
Thanks.

@TeenMinusTests

I would say that in middle sets although the teaching still has an eye to Higher material, they likely won't cover all the material, so getting a very top grade is pretty much impossible.

Though presumably kids are in the middle sets because they haven't mastered middle grade topics, so wouldn't be able to master the top grade material in the time anyway.

Yes indeed. I thought it was worth flagging that simply being entered for the Higher tier doesn't mean that you will be taught all the higher tier material (possibly school dependent?). This is very much a difference to other subjects where, for example, in history you would still be taught all the topics even if you're aiming for a mid level grade.

Oh yes, definitely.

Your son has this summer to make sure his maths knowledge is secure. Unless he has lots of things happening over summer he can work each day on maths and he would reap the benefits. That goes for any subject he wishes to read around and improve his overall understanding of. He can ask his teachers where they suggest he looks.

My sons are yr13 and yr10. Ds1 did higher paper, we were told by school that you need to be securing a confident grade 6 by the end of year 10 to be put into the higher paper. I can only repeat what we were told, I am not a maths teacher, but 50% of the higher paper is geared toward discerning the level 9s from the level 7s. That means a proportion of the paper is not accessible to grade 5s and 6. It can be soul destroying to leave questions blank if you do not know or have not been taught how to tackle them.

However, their school never predicted GCSE grades from year 9, they only had target grades for the end of year 9. They only start tentatively predicting grades by the end of November in year 10 and then it is just 6+ rather than a specific 8 or 9. Mine have a minimum target grade ie this is what we think you will get and then an aspirational if you just put a bit more effort in grade.

My school have expectations for each set, ie sets 1&2 do higher, sets 3,4&5 do foundation (we have parallel sets so 10 sets altogether). So we are teaching the content that is most suitable for each set right from the start of year 10.

We then do set changes at the end of year 10, based on their summer exams. Generally these changes are pupils from set 2 moving down onto the foundation tier. Moving the other direction is very difficult because someone who was following the curriculum for foundation hasn't encountered the topics from the higher tier. Any movement is based on their likelihood of achieving a grade 6 by the end of year 11. So if they do look likely to manage it they stay on the higher tier, if not they move to foundation. We've found that a grade 5 is easier to achieve on foundation, mainly as a confidence thing. Sticking with foundation (which does look at some relatively challenging material) gives the opportunity to really master the right topics without having to struggle through things that are really, really, really difficult where they may lose confidence as they struggle to understand and then remember/apply these skills.

Is his prediction of a 5 from his exams this year? Or is it a target from earlier attainment? Does he know which tier he's likely to be put in for? Did they start working on the GCSE content at the start of year 9 or do his school start GCSEs in year 10?

Most of this continued discussion makes me feel he is more suited to foundation. He's not going to work in the summer (I'd like him to but it would destroy us), so I think we are going to rely on a good stint between September and Christmas. (I now have an excellent tutor lined up).

He is in set 3 (of 5) and up to this year they were teaching them the same as the top sets (less depth perhaps but covering the curriculum). There are 2 top sets and 2 middle sets (he's in the top middle set if that makes sense). I am uncertain about this year as I did not ask.
When I look at a Foundation level GCSE workbook, it looks like he has covered all that (simultaneous equations, etc) but should a Y9 have already covered grade 6 topics (not sure what they are precisely) to have a chance at the higher paper?

He's not going to work in the summer (I'd like him to but it would destroy us) no one is suggested hours and hours on maths every day. I say this a lot but teenagers are awake for a lot of hours over summer holidays probably at least 12 a day. Asking him to do 15-20 minutes of maths a day can make a huge difference and hardly dents his free time.

Personally, I would find Foundation very hard. The only worthwhile grade to achieve is a 5, and to achieve that you have to gain a high score in the paper.

@portico

Personally, I would find Foundation very hard. The only worthwhile grade to achieve is a 5, and to achieve that you have to gain a high score in the paper.

portico Sorry, but that is absolute rubbish.

A grade 4 is perfectly worthwhile. It is the requirement for lots of jobs and level 3 courses.

DD1's school decided just before Christmas last year to change her entry to higher tier.
We were pleased.
She had extra maths lessons in school (when they were there) and via Google Classroom when off.
They then decided in April this year that they hadn't managed to cover everything and she had to do intermediate tier instead.
It was like they hadn't taken the current situation into account.
Whilst I understood the decision I do wish that someone told us at some point that she may not cover the syllabus in time so to be prepared.

@portico

Personally, I would find Foundation very hard. The only worthwhile grade to achieve is a 5, and to achieve that you have to gain a high score in the paper.

Firstly, it's not true that the only worthwhile grade is a 5. A 4 is also classed as a pass, and is fine for those looking to tick that box for post-16 or future jobs.

In fact for many students achieving a 2 or a 3 at maths is still worth doing.

Also, do you have knowledge of the foundation paper? Yes, a 5 demands a high percentage, but it is much much more straightforward to gain that score on F than the score for a 5 on H. A student whose best likely result is a 5 should certainly sit foundation in any subjects where it is an option.

Sadly it is not an option in English. not even Eng Lang, so that many level 2/3 student are completely overwhelmed by the one size fits all paper they have to tackle.

hah @TeenMinusTests types faster than I do!