School refusing to give GCSE predictions

[BirthdayBadger]

DS is in year 11 (in an independent school). No mocks have been done at all and the school is saying that they are not going to give us any predictions and that there's no point in even asking. We know that predictions exist because DS applied to go to a different sixth form and his school needed to supply them for the new school to consider him.

Is this normal? I feel that we actually have no idea how he is really doing. We had a very inconclusive parents evening recently where some teachers gave test results which helped a bit but not all subjects had had any recent tests, or the teachers wouldn't comment. So, we are concerned that we don't actually know how well he is doing at all.

Is this what other schools are doing? Surely it's usual to provide some kind of prediction so that a clear idea of where the pupils are at is given and steps for extra support can be given if needed?

It was normal last year, because the assessed grades played such a different role in the final award. They're probably holding fire until it is clearer what will be required for this years awards

You must surely know from year 10 summer exams and all reports t least roughly his your DS is doing? What was said about strengths/weaknesses at last parents evening?

It will be classed as malpractice to tell children (and parents) what their teacher assessed grade being submitted pre moderation from the awarding organisation will be so they will likely be erring on the side of caution for now.

Second issue is that they don't know yet what they will be using to determine the teacher grade they will be submitting - whether it will be based on what they've already done or whether a task will be sat so again, would potentially cause an issue of that predicted grade being different

Last year many teachers were facing pressure from kids and parents to up the predicted grades so this prevents that pressure and bias.

I think that's very normal - a hundred billion years ago we weren't told ours, on the logic that it might encourage us to slack off. Why would your kid need to know, anywaym

We had them up to a few weeks ago but school have said not giving any more.

We’ve taken predicted grades off reporting for Y11 and 13 at my school too.

We don’t know what we’re predicting any more so we can’t do anything till the plans for centre assessed grades come out.

Usually predicted grades would be given, yes. However like nobles school, ours too have taken predicted grades off of this terms reports. Guidance as to what teachers should use and take in to consideration when calculating this summer's grades has not yet been published. So they literally can not predict what grades they might give as they don't yet know how they are going to be allowed to set the grades.

@AnotherNewt There were no year 10 exams so we have absolutely no previous data to go on. The reports are vague and if you query what a grade means they say that it isn't worth looking at grades because it is all about the Value Added. But IMO at this point it isn't about the value added because we are at crunch point, aren't we?

@slothbyday I see your point, but as predictions have clearly been made way is this now classified information?

@Ohalrightthen I too talked the earth with the dinosaurs but even then I did mocks which gave me (and my parents) of where I was going OK and where there were problems. I get the logic that it might make people slack off (more fool them IMO) but also lower grades might make people get their acts together. Isn't that the whole point of mocks?

@xyzandabc don't you feel unnerved by this?

Our students sat mocks in November & they were due results day in January. This obviously didn't happen and we have been told not to give them results.

There were parents appealing last summer. Some parents asking to see staff emails via freedom of information request. Then using information sent in emails to try to get higher grades. Parents appealing the appeal and then appealing the final decision 🤷🏻‍♀️

So I think schools are trying to avoid putting themselves into a position where clever parents with lawyer friends will find a loophole where they can get hold of information to get better grades for their child (when they know they missed work and didn't actually put much effort in, but they think it's worth a try)

Simple answer is if we have you your predicted grades then you didn't achieve them you would complain and potentially try and sue the school.

Let's remember that these predicted grades aren't meaningless and just a base point these are likely to be used as your final overall grade. This is different then every time before.

We still don't know the mark schemes, still don't have a clear picture of how we make the grades up. We can't tell you your prediction because either it will be bang on or wildly inaccurate and we just don't know which.

We are saving a lot of false hope, a lot of potential worry for those who did not perform quite as well and trying to cover ourselves from angry parents

So is this just an independent School thing? Based on fear of litigation?

No, mine’s a state school.

How can we predict grades when we don’t know what the assessment is? It’s all up in the air.

@converseandjeans - aren't your pupils feeling frustrated that they took exams which they revised for yet got no results for? As a student I would be very upset by this.

@BirthdayBadger not independent here!

It's a bit like the results embargo. We know GCSE results before we reveal to students. The reason is to open out any flaws and stop any issues arising

[quote BirthdayBadger]@xyzandabc don't you feel unnerved by this?[/quote]
Not hugely. I know the kids are doing the best they can (which may be lots for some and hardly anything for others, but still the best they can). We were lucky that both yr11 and 13 did have mocks in November and December. The vast majority of students took them far more seriously than any previous cohort have ever done. Though obviously there are a few of each that didn't manage to get in to school to sit then through isolating/illness etc.

I'm hopeful that they will get back in to school in March and then they will be able to show what they can do. I'm sure most subjects are planning mini assessments and seeing the students in person will give the teachers a much better idea of what level they are working at.

I'd much rather wait until the criteria for grades are known than ask teachers to make a stab in the dark at an unknown marking criteria.

@AnotherNewt what Y10 summer tests? Current Y11 got maximum 5 days in school from March to end of year. Many haven't been able to do locks this school year either because of self-isolation and bubbles bursting.

@noblegiraffe - this is probably me being thick, but surely if school mark their own mock exams, or even without mock they can make predictions then they must know something of what the assessment criteria is?

[quote queenofthelamas]@BirthdayBadger not independent here!

It's a bit like the results embargo. We know GCSE results before we reveal to students. The reason is to open out any flaws and stop any issues arising [/quote]
Sorry, what do you mean by results embargo? Do you get the results in advance so they can be manipulated to stop problems or schools can come up with reasons to deflect problems?

PS I know that reads as being a bit confrontational but it's not meant to be. I am genuinely interested, as I thought the results came out at the same time for pupils and schools.

It's totally ridiculous.

How on earth can the students be expected to know their areas of weakness of they are not given feedback on exams?

[quote Sleepthief]@AnotherNewt what Y10 summer tests? Current Y11 got maximum 5 days in school from March to end of year. Many haven't been able to do locks this school year either because of self-isolation and bubbles bursting. [/quote]
That sounds awful for your current Y11. We have been lucky. He got a pretty much a full term in and they were on it with online learning for the two weeks that they had to isolate in October.

@BirthdayBadger my son is also in y11 but at a state school. He was given predicted grades, which were an amalgamation of their Y10 achievement ladders from February 2020 and assessments the school carried out in the autumn term in class time, under the expectation GCSE results would come down to teacher assessment. We were given those grades so our children could apply to sixth form, but were also made aware they weren't real predicted grades based on anything quantifiable.

@idril this is my exact concern.

@Sleepthief this seems completely sensible and reasonable to me. Hence my post because I would have thought this would be the norm.

@BirthdayBadger I meant five days from March to July (end of y10 year, rather than calendar year). They were in pretty much up to October half term (bar two days) but the half term to Christmas was really disrupted!

@BirthdayBadger I'm not sure what @queenofthelamas means by results embargo either, as I know from experience (teacher/daughter of teachers) that schools only get the results the night before and very few are privy to those...